Russia invades Ukraine - 4 - from 14 March 2023

That was the delusion they were under initially. Thought Ukrainians could be subjugated and even sent Internal Policing National Guard units to occupy Kharkiv.

Quickly became clear that the threat to the regime could not conceivably be reduced while trying to keep people of Ukraine onside. Aim is to terrorize and at the very least send a message that successful resistance is too costly so others less determined will not follow example of Ukraine left badly damaged.

Theories of land grab, resources etc don’t make much sense in modern world. Applicable to serf and peasant socieities where rent that previously went to one set of landlords could go to another with the villagers/farmers just carrying on as before. Also applicable to recently tribal societies with enormous “resources” eg Kuwait and Saudi oil could be owned by local chiefs of Iraqi chiefs.

Cost of subjugating modern societies didn’t make sense in WW1, let alone now.

Could be, in the sense that if China won’t sell arms to Russia then Russian regime knows it cannot match Western arms support for Ukraine.

But Xi meeting as well as 12 point proposal could be positioning for “we tried to get both sides to agree to a compromise but the West just keeps fueling Ukrainian obstinancy with arms so …”.

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I think you’re in the ballpark of what the ideal bunker would contain. Comms, power, cooking. Likely the implementation is fairly random, depending on the equipment available, skillset of the engineering team and time/danger of construction. Some bunkers will be bare bones, others will have a sauna.

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Dmitri says wide offensive along “the whole front line”. But the actual translation focuses on the danger to Crimea from attacks southwards and only mentions other areas.

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I disagree.

I think subjugation was on the agenda but in order of importance I believe the goals were:

  1. To take control of the tariff on oil shipments through to Hungary and Slovakia

  2. To take control of the gas reserves in Kharkiv and Poltava oblasts to entrench energy dominance in Europe

  3. To take control of a vast majority of the recently discovered lithium and rare earth mineral reserves which are critical for energy transition

  4. To protect the regime against democracy creep

US aims were the opposite - to reduce EU energy dependence on Russia, to protect the Caspian sea natural gas assets and their routes to Europe, and to gain commercial advantage from the lithium and rare earth mineral deposits through capital investment in Ukraine.

All wars since about 1970 have been fought over energy, this one is no different.

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That’s an interesting perspective. I can’t see an angle where there is a benefit to China entering this conflict though.

There’s arguably benefits to China rather than costs in a destabilised Russian Federation and there will be significant costs if it participates in arming Russia. US is looking for an opportunity to hit China hard with sanctions because frankly China is catching up in a lot of areas.

If Xi arms Russia it will be a second Cold War if we’re not in one already.

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I dropped an interesting interview with K Rudd in the China thread.

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Certainly Gulf War was fought over Kuwait oil fields.

Won’t get into long discussion as we’ll just have to agree to disagree anyway, but I’m curious what others you have in mind.

Serbia/Kosovo?

Great African War - 5million excess deaths?

Here are some lists of wars not all of which are significant but should include enough for you to reconsider your theory.

Even before 1970 there were claims that the Vietnam war was fought over resources, which got translated into very widespread assumption that the second war with Iraq was also over oil and complete certainty that US oil companies would seize Iraqi oil fields.

In fact that was never plausible and simply did not happen, but it remains widely embedded in people’s consciousness as an “excplanation”.

Actually Iraq’s oil is owned by Iraq and most of the contracts are to non-US companies:

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Zelensky has cancelled the licence of Parimatch ,Ukraine’s largest gambling company. His decree refers to its links to individuals and companies subject to sanctions.
The UA Education Ministry has cancelled its cooperation agreement with the Parimatch charitable organisation
Parimatch had withdrawn from the Russian market last year.
I note that there is an online gambling company, Casino Parimatch Australia.
Parimatch is registered in Curaçao, a Dutch Caribbean island.

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Let’s go with “most” wars rather than “all” wars :slight_smile:. Hyperbole on my part

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How many RPG shots would that take? must have been a fleet?

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German Foreign Minister visits Baghdad.
Belarus President visits Tehran to boost cooperation ties. Pictured with Iran President, he has notepaper and Ipad at the ready. Ayatollah looks ill at ease.

Part 2 of Kevin Rudd interview via @Benny40 is interesting.

Suggests already in dangerous times with China already hit hard by US preparations for Cold War.

You might enjoy Rudd’s theory that China has a major interest in securing access to Russian energy resources.

Rudd’s view is that it is against China’s interests to sell arms to Russia unless the regime’s survival is threatened. That doesn’t sound very comforting to me since the regime’s survival certainly is threatened.

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In much of Africa, hunger and starvation are a major driver of conflict, exacerbated by drought in East Africa.
That’s why the Black Sea corridor for grains and fertilisers is so important , including in the context of Russia’s sphere of influence in the African continent.
It also explains why the UNSG counts the grain corridor as his greatest achievement

It’s also a historical consideration in India US relations. The US weaponised food in the Vietnam War, seeking Indian support by making its wheat exports conditional. At a time of severe drought in some provinces. Millions died of starvation in India, on a scale beyond the deaths of peasants in Ukraine and Russia under Stalin.
The US later supplied wheat to India under a food aid program. The wheat was contaminated and led to a weed infestation that damaged crops.
That may explain the efforts in the UN WFP, the WHO, complemented by work in the WTO to untie food aid.

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Conflicts driven by hunger and ownership of resources, including blood diamonds* to fund Wars are also a cause of African (and some in the Middle East) asylum seekers desperate efforts to cross the Mediterranean . So many drownings
It’s not going to be resolved by boat pushbacks, jailing smugglers , charging NGOs for saving lives, deportations to third countries.
Hundreds of thousands have died in the Yemen War, in which Saudi Arabia and Iran are engaged. Australia exports ammunition to Saudi Arabia

(* As to blood diamonds, there are concerns that Russian diamonds are being used to fund the Ukraine War. However, the Antwerp diamond cutters and traders are pushing back on tracing the sourcing/origins to Russia)

And the US has its own refugee problems, many thousands of Latin Americans have died.

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Yes, yes, I conceded it was hyperbole. You’re correct

If that is indeed the case then we are looking at endless war on the Ukraine / Russian border :(.

I have wondered whether the primary threat to China is the ramp up of production capability and the implications for any action on Taiwan.

You’d think that Taiwan would be upping its air defense around grid targets and building / stocking underground shell storage after seeing what happened in Ukr

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It’s also about the other items on agendas of the big players and the priority accorded, neglect of the wider consequences from engagement in conflicts.
In the Ukraine conflict, the geopolitics of doing patch ups in combatting the influence of China and Russia in the global south, when the actions of the big Western players have contributed to their influence

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