Russia invades Ukraine - 4 - from 14 March 2023

It’s an important statement.

My take is that there is more grounds for and therefore also more possibility of convincing people that a third world war with China is likely unless the Russian regime is ended than that a Russian attack on NATO countries in Eastern Europe is likely unless Ukraine’s “recipe” is adopted:

The recipe for this victory is clear: it is restoration of the territorial integrity of Ukraine, the withdrawal of the remnants of Russian troops, the punishment of war criminals, reparations, the introduction of the amendments to international law that will prevent similar aggressions in the future, and participation of Ukraine in the architecture of international security.

I don’t think it is plausible the above could really be achieved without ending the Russian regime. Some war criminals might be caught and punished and some Russian assets located outside of Russia might be seized as reparations but if the regime remains in place NATO including Ukraine as well as the Russian peoples will still be faced with fascist terrorism and Chinese fascists will only learn that they need to be better prepared than Russia was.

It is basically absurd to permit a regime that openly threatened nuclear attacks to destroy civilization to remain in existence after it is militarily defeated.

The statement has a good reminder of a Western view of history:

In 1938, striving to prevent what would become the second world war, an infamous agreement was signed in Munich, transferring the Sudetenland from Czechoslovakia to the Third Reich. We know from history that this did not stop Hitler. Soon the Third Reich had complete control over what was left of Czechoslovakia, including its considerable military arsenal, which later played an important role in the invasion of Poland and France.

The reality was actually much worse, but I won’t provoke that argument right now.

More immediately relevant is that the lesson learned from that infamous agreement was not just that there had to be restoration of territorial integrity by withdrawal of Nazi troops, trials of war criminals, reparations and amendments to international law.

The lesson learned then and forgotten now is that there had to be unconditional surrender of the Nazi armed forces and the Nazi regime had to be completely dismantled. An entirely new system of international law had to be established with the allied powers who defeated the Nazis forming a Security Council empowered to direct all other member states of the United Nations to contribute forces under the command of its Military Committee to combat by land, sea and air any power that launched another war of aggression.

That lesson still remains forgotton. Current US and NATO posture against taking the war into the territory of the aggressor state and ending its regime is in direct opposition to all the lessons of history.

Remembering it requires clear statements that the aim is unconditional surrender to end the regime. Nothing short of that is likely to impress Chinese fascists.

I broadly agree with the two articles emphasizing the silovaki as more important than the individual Putin or factions around other sectors such as particular oligarchs or the military. I have never agreed with the emphasis most people place on the “Putin regime”.

But I don’t think there is some single united silovaki institution for which Putin is just a figurehead. My impression was the war was launched so clumsily because Putin’s circle had no real support for launching it among some broad consensus of even Silovaki factions and basically had to spring it on everybody else (except of course US intelligence who could observe the troop movements for which the army commanders themselves were not able to do proper planning with subordinate commands).

I think the whole point of the war was to establish a more openly “silovaki” regime because popular acquiescence in the fake democracy with oligarchs presided over by Putin was bound to continue declining.

Putin intended for that regime to be led by him, strengthened by his speedy victory and having emphasized that it was his personal decision that others were merely required to formally assent to and implement rather than any kind of consultation.

Now that option has ceased to exist essentially as a result of Ukraine’s heroism and visibly since the Wagner mutiny. I cannot guess how much Putin remains in charge but I broadly agree that he remains nominally in charge mainly because there is no other figurehead who could replace him without triggering both internal struggles among the other regime factions and “civil unrest” from large numbers of both soldiers and civilians.

I still think we are in an unstable and unpredictable interval between Act 1 and Act 2 but that preparations need to be made for possibility some regime could emerge with or without Putin that does not have to worry about Putin’s popularity and attempts to rule without any serious pretence of popular acquiescence at all.

That doesn’t seem very plausible and I certainly don’t think it could last long. I don’t even speak Russian so cannot justify that belief except by saying that pretty well any other scenario does not seem to me to require much preparation as the current regime would just continue to crumble until it somehow ceased to exist without further effort to destroy it. Perhaps that is what “Western leaders” are thinking but I don’t believe they actually do much strategic thinking at all.

Anyway the Russian opposition do at least speak Russian and have a different view.

Today’s Katz is debate with Navalny team about tactics for March elections, including preliminary steps for current (otherwise unimportant) regional elections. The auto-subtitles were understandable. I don’t know whether they will be replaced with properly edited subtitles as it was intended for only a Russian speaking audience but it was worth watching to try and understand Russian opposition analysis.

# Who to vote for in elections | Consider the strategy of Leonid Volkov

(Volkov is Navalny team leader with excerpts of his tactical views in the video. Link above skips the first part with specific voting recommendations as recommended for people outside Russia)

0:00 WHO TO VOTE FOR THIS WEEKEND
02:40 ANSWER TO LEONID VOLKOV

87,291 views1 hour ago Sep 8, 2023

In today’s video I’ll tell you who to vote for in this weekend’s elections in Russia. And I’ll argue with Leonid Volkov about election strategies. Recommendations for voting …


Today’s Arestovych has topics and timepoints in English on youtube page:

Edit add: First segment is about Armenia and timepoint for Armenia is about other topics so I think the topics list has been badly mangled and is not usable.

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Bloody Musk, how naive can you get?

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I wonder how they can afford all of that hardware.

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Poland’s replacements for supply to Ukraine were subsidised under the EU Peace Plan, It claimed the cost of the updated equipment, as compared to the value of Soviet era gear.
It held the EU over a barrel on that account, part revenge for the EU withholding some funding because Poland wasn’t meeting some EU non discrimination standards.
Poland was also the main driver of suspension of Ukraine food exports through Atlantic ports.
Poland has kept an open door for Ukraine refugees ( EU funded) but no others.
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And Poland was instrumental in securing the reversal of the EU duty free access for imports from Ukraine.

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The Chinese always think they’re smart playing a two-faced game. They really think that foreigners are either too dumb or too ignorant (especially of their language) to see what they are doing. This video has been shared widely and isn’t doing them any favours in Ukraine.


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Good article on how the UK has put outdated ASRAAM air to air missiles on to trucks as jerry rigged medium range air defences. These are taking out helicopters at range and defending cities.

Australia has retired these missiles, but still has them on the shelf.

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Big news - ATACMS finally!
https://twitter.com/ColbyBadhwar/status/1700267021945180619?s=20


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Excellent news!

Have a serious bang.

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Hopeful

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The Russian defences south of Bakhmut has become very degraded. Potential for a Russian collapse of some kind has been building over the last week or so.

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Desperate times.

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Russia is moving everything they can to try and just hold ground… but this is going to just bring more troops into the range of Ukraine artillery.

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