Origin of the report of Zelensky not receiving offer from China seems to here:
If it wasn’t off the record, this could be a strong pointer to China eventually selling arms to Russia.
Ukraine would certainly prefer if China was talking to them and has avoided anything that might encourage China to start selling arms to Russia, which would certainly prolong the war. So letting it be known that they are not talking could imply that Ukraine is giving up hope on that. But could also just be a prod to get in touch more promptly.
Xi not talking to Zelensky could just be fear that Zelensky might publish embarassing transcript of embarassing chat with Xi.
But hard for China to keep on pretending to be launching a peace initiative while not talking to Ukraine.
Know you don’t like podcasts, but I think this is the episode that covered illegals and how they are crafted. Most spies are embassy staff and defectors. Very few are using true forged identities, known as illegals. From memory, most Russian illegals are using South American passports because few know what the accent actually sounds like.
Charging them on the paperwork fraud is an easier diplomatic path than the espionage, for the same end result. Often counter intelligence is about what you choose not to do.
What was the mission of the “Yaroslav Mudry” there? Was it possibly collecting data on how quickly NATO forces would react in an emergency?
In official statements, the activities of the Russian navy in the days before the attacks have so far played no role. Neither the German, Danish or Swedish investigators, nor NATO or the armed forces of the Baltic Sea states wanted to comment on them when asked by t-online. Thus, the criminal case remains unsolved for the time being, but a chain of evidence has been added. It does not point to the USA or Ukraine. Some tracks now are leading to Moscow.
We now know, from the intrepid reporters of a German newspaper that not only did the Russians blow up a pipeline that was vital to their interests but the Danish, Swedish and American authorities have been concealing their discovery of the plot!
A little later, a U.S. military helicopter stationed in Gdansk, Poland, crossed their course. Was it warning the Danes of ships approaching without position signals?
In any case, by 7:50 p.m., the two tugs could have reached the scene. It is unclear whether their short length of 45 meters protected them from being detected in SpaceKnow’s analysis of satellite imagery. The company did not respond to a request for comment.
Further confirmation is provided by refusal to comment.
Truly one fot the “true believers”.
PS Thanks for the podcast suggestion but I’m not after more info on the topic of tradecraft and illegals (and would be more inclined to watch a spy thriller on TV than listen to a podcast on it if I was).
Where I’m at with the Nordstream pipeline is there’s 4 theories:
The USA did it using a Norwegian ship that was halfway through being scrapped.
The Ukrainians did it using a yacht that is most likely too small to do the job.
The Russians did it accidentally by forming a hydrate plug in the line and it ruptured.
The Russians did it deliberately using naval assets.
I’m clearly not convinced that the USA/Norwegian conspiracy is legit. The author of that article is an anti-America effectively fiction writer who was a competent journalist about 60 years ago.
I’m yet to see any corroboration of the Ukrainian aligned group diving off a commercial yacht option as all the OSINT checks of harbours in the area have found zero boats that meet the description of the story. It just doesn’t stand up to any checks. Hire companies and harbour camera footage don’t show the boat in the story.
The Russian hydrate plug accident hasn’t generated much discussion. I’m going to have chats with colleagues and see if that’s a plausible option, but so far I haven’t seen anything to suggest it’s actually physically possible.
The Russian Navy is an obvious culprit. I find it very interesting that the ships they would need to do the job had left port and ships of the right size were detected in the area without beacons operational. It isn’t proof, but it’s plausible.
The Ukrainians or the Americans could both have also done the hit. Or someone else. But so far I haven’t seen a plausible theory that is backed up by independent corroboration. We are in a day and age that satellite photos or LIDAR imaging can verify most shipping movements.
The most likely scenario in my mind is NATO knows the Russians did it, but don’t want to give the Russians the publicity by making an official allegation. Don’t engage, let them have their tantrum, all they did was blow up their own asset as an attempted power play. The Russians likely wanted Europe to feel scared of further infrastructure attacks, by not acknowledging the Russians did it, the Russian intimidation is crippled. We won’t know one way or the other for decades after this happened, because that’s the way espionage tends to go.
I know for sure that Germany has nukes, with a warhead sharing arrangement with the US. They used their Tornados for nuke delivery, which is one of the reasons that fleet hasn’t been retired.
