I think you’ve got to start with a realistic view on the state of the russian economy here. Sure, gas production might have shrunk but overall the state of fossil fuel exports is fairly stable and skyrocketing prices have somewhat made up for reduced production.
The EU is still buying a shitload of gas from Russia.
Sanctions that drive prices up for agriculture and fossil fuels may be having the opposite effect. They’re certainly making energy companies very rich (we feel it in our own pockets).
Remember the good days of war, when being in the artillery way behind the front lines meant you were safe? Not any more, drones have changed the nature of how wars are to be fought.
First video footage of an old S-200 missile converted by Ukraine into a land attack weapon. Beast.
https://x.com/wartranslated/status/1708916224283857073?s=46&t=A5S-z5IJslFoC5SVN0Jodg
Why, then, do MAGA politicians want to cut Ukraine off?
The answer is, unfortunately, obvious. Whatever Republican hard-liners may say, they want Putin to win. They view the Putin regime’s cruelty and repression as admirable features that America should emulate. They support a wannabe dictator at home and are sympathetic to actual dictators abroad.
Hmm that article is pretty naïve
MAGA republicans exist in a bubble. They read breitbart, they watch newsmax, they followed tucker carlson off Fox, etc. If you spent too much time in a MAGA republican’s news feed on facebook you’d begin to think that the world is flat, that Donald Trump is Jesus reincarnate, and that democrats are lizard people running a global pedo network. In those communities Russia and China deliberately amplify the crazy voices through bot networks.
MAGA republicans like Gaetz and Boebert don’t support Putin’s regime, but they see the democrats, ‘RINO’ republicans, the justice system and the FBI/CIA as enemies of the US state. They think that Zelenksyy is a corrupt puppet of the CIA and therefore that the enemy of my enemy is my friend.
It’s nutjob stuff but it’s been carefully cultivated over about a decade by Russia and China and their bot farms.
US defense (DARPA funded I believe?) is playing it’s own strategies in those very networks to try and fragment the MAGA community into smaller communities but it appears at least from the outside that this is fomenting further distrust and actually becoming a bonding agent.
A lot of good points. The nutjob MAGA far-right do adore their foreign strongmen like Putin and other autocrats and dictators (even left-wing dictators). Not only because they are anti-liberal but they also see them are as “protecting” ‘traditional values’ such as God and Country against the ravenous LBGTQ++ hordes.
I don’t follow US politics and at risk of raising this in the wrong thread, how credible is a republican win next November?
In the context of Ukraine; that election is 14 months away and 16 months until power is transferred (January 2025 in the event of a republican win). The Ukrainian’s know the timeframe to make the significant in roads required to force hard decisions on the Russians.
My personal take is that, whilst the Russians can mobilize more soldiers (not talking about quality), they will not have the industry to support a protracted war to supply even reasonable quality mechanized vehicles. Case in point - assistance from NK and Iran.
Russians are ramping up spend
Russia’s Unprecedented War Budget Explained | Wilson Center.
40% of government expenditure
Politics always decides war in the end:
- How long is the US going to support things?
Trump will stop support, MAGA republicans will try to slow it, but I think there’s bipartisan broad support in the meantime.
- How long is the EU going to support things?
We’ve had a couple of far right govts already elected - Italy (though they support ukraine) and Romania? and Orban is another breakaway state. I think EU is in for the long haul though.
- How long can Russia support things?
40% is a lot. If they can maintain public support for the war machine for 2-3 years I’ll be very impressed but Russian people seem to accept being ruled a lot better than western people do.
I think as long as the EU or the US is supporting things Ukraine will be fine, $100B is pocket change to both those collective economies
Other things to think about:
If the US steps away it plays into the EU’s hand - Europe is the only one you can rely on in times of need. Geopolitically that is really bad for the US
If the EU steps away it’s equally good for the US geopolitically with the Baltic states.
If the US steps away it is really bad for Taiwan which is great for China, so the democrats will be able to play it as soft on China.
Etc etc
There’s a lot of mess, you can’t predict what will happen other than it’s going to take a while and it’s going to be really messy
Oh… and also don’t forget also that Trump can be bought and there is a massive military industrial complex in the US with a powerful lobby network. Don Jr and the weird albino will end up in some plush leadership role with Northrop Grumman and Lockheed Martin and Kushner will get a billion dollar tank manufacturing contract
Having followed US politics in detail for quite a while, my take is every election is basically 50:50. Biden probably has the lead on Trump, but both bring more baggage into this run than last.
That being said, don’t look into it too early. There’s a huge amount of time for the board to get upended. Either candidate could die and be considered to have lived a long life. Either candidate could choose not to run, or be forced. Either party could put forward an energetic younger option that would demolish the other side’s geriatric.
Trump currently has the GOP ticket lined up, but he’s got about 7085 different court cases popping over the coming months. That constant negative publicity is unlikely to attract swing voters. He’ll get his base, but I can’t see him growing his vote.
Biden looks a lot older than Trump. That’s arguably because Trump covers his dementia word salad with supreme confidence. No Dem voter is excited by Biden, getting the broad Dem voter base to all vote is extraordinarily tough and Biden is going to struggle to enthuse a turnout.
TLDR - GOP win is a valid concern, but way too early to judge. Anyone who says otherwise is pushing clickbait.
At currently visually observed loss rate, Russia is likely to lose at least 1000 tanks between now and the Nov 2024 election. They’ll be on the last dregs of their artillery piece stocks and barrel life will be dire. Flight hours on their Bomber and fighter jets will be a real issue, they’ll have attrited a huge % of their fleet purely through air turbulence.
The quality of the 2024 Russian army is going to be a blend of 1960-1980 equipment. The only high end gear will be the remaining fresh aircraft and helicopters, along with EW and SAM systems. What modern tanks and IFVs can be produced will be maybe 10% of the total fleet in the field, so of marginal strategic impact.
Spare parts such as engines and transmissions are going to burn out faster than they can be replaced. Expect to see large backlogs of repairable equipment parked up in the rear, vastly more than the large numbers currently seen.
Russia isn’t likely to manage any more major offensives. As the equipment availability and quality shrinks, they’ll need to be more and more conservative with their kit.
I’m not saying this will lead to an easy Ukrainian victory, both sides are getting ground down. Western resupply could shift the balance, but the only equipment stocks left are mostly American. The cupboard is getting pretty bare in Europe.
Trump will encourage dem turnout far more than Biden will 
In a country of 400 million how the ■■■■ are they the best candidates?
I think because most competent people have no interest in the clown show that is US politics.
(And I agree with Trump motivating turnout. Way too many things can happen and I’m deliberately not OCDing the details. I treat it like the trade period since live trading was added, too complex to even bother making predictions.)
When do you reckon the increased production of arty rounds and replacement kit will start to refill US and EU stockpiles?