Russia invades Ukraine - 5 - from 2 October 2023

18% interest rates in itself isn’t an issue at all. Australia had high interest rates in the 70’s (13 - 15% in some cases) and it wasn’t short period either. There was also high inflation at the time (same as in Russia today).

It’s actually where Aussies got their obsession of housing from; inflation erodes the value of “owed money” (e.g. mortgages and other loans). So early in the 70’s houses were worth ~$20,000. In the 80’s properties had gone up to $200,000 due to inflation, and were servicing tiny $20k mortgages. So despite double-digit interest rates people actually made a killing.

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Our Submarine fleet is fine. It just lacks submariners. And replacement submarines.

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What they are talking about at the front | Terrible conditions of service in the occupation army (Eng Subs) - Max Katz

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Russian losses per 31/07/24 reported by the Ukrainian general staff.

+1060 men
+9 tanks
+20 APVs
+30 artillery systems
+1 MLRS
+1 AD system
+21 UAVs
+1 cruise missile

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JDAM v Sand
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With that convoy of tanks getting hit while moving along a road…what are UKR likely using to hit those? Is it a drone, artillery or a javelin type weapon. Or even a mine?

Is that like, less than 30mx30m? Doesn’t seem very big to me…

If you are talking about the video in post 9787 near Kurakhiv, all of the above (but mainly FPVs). It looks like they are getting hit by artillery sighted in on the approach road when they are at long rang and FPV’s and mines when they are closer in.

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Ukraine says it repelled one of Russia’s largest drone attacks of war

KYIV, July 31 (Reuters) - Ukraine’s air force said on Wednesday it repelled one of Russia’s largest long-range drone attacks of the war overnight, shooting down all 89 drones launched at Kyiv, the surrounding region and other areas.

The attack, which came more than 29 months after Russia’s full-scale invasion, primarily targeted Kyiv and the surrounding region where authorities said more than 40 drones were shot down. An air raid alert remained in place most of the night.

“This is one of the most massive attacks by Shahed-131/136 strike drones,” the air force said, naming the type of drone it says Russia has used in the thousands for strikes on Ukraine.

Military spy agency spokesman Andriy Yusov said in televised remarks that Russia had used a “significant” number of decoy drones that were not loaded with explosives to try to deplete Ukraine’s air defences and also identify their locations.

Kyiv, which has repeatedly appealed to allies to supply more air defences, conceals the locations of its air defence units, which are tasked with engaging daily missile and drone attacks by Russia.

A military spy spokesman told Reuters last week that Russia was now using new cheaply-produced drones to film the location of Ukraine’s air defences, assess damage and to act as decoys.

Serhiy Popko, head of Kyiv’s military administration, said the latest drone attack was the seventh conducted against the city in July.

No civilian or critical infrastructure took a direct hit, but debris damaged the roofs, windows and facades of 13 private residences in the region, authorities said.

Some 11,500 residents sheltered for safety in metro stations in the night as the drones came in several waves from “all possible directions,” city authorities said.

Belarusian Hajun, an opposition group that monitors military activity in Belarus, said that at least five Russian drones had flown into Belarusian airspace during the attack and that Minsk had scrambled a fighter jet in the evening.

Minsk, a close Kremlin ally, has not publicly commented on any such incident. Ukrainian military analysts have said Russia may fly drones via Belarus to minimise their flight time in Ukrainian airspace - and exposure to air defences - before they strike.

The Ukrainian air force also intercepted a Kh-59 missile fired at the southern region of Mykolaiv, it said. Local authorities had not reported any damage there as of Wednesday morning.

There was no immediate comment from Russia.

Kyiv and most of central and eastern Ukraine were under air raid alerts from 2000 GMT on Tuesday. Air defence systems were engaged on the approaches to Kyiv and the region outside the region several times in the night, Popko said.

Reuters reporters heard numerous blasts that sounded like air defence systems engaging targets.

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russia-launches-drone-attack-ukraine-capital-kyiv-military-says-2024-07-31/

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Personally, I’d also be asking for funeral insurance.

Putin more than doubles lump-sum payment for joining war against Ukraine

Russian President Vladimir Putin on July 31 ordered an increase in the sign-on bonus for new military recruits to serve in Ukraine to 400,000 rubles (over $4,600).

The presidential decree published on the government website effectively doubled the lump-sum payment of 195,000 ($2,260) rubles initially promised to recruits in September 2022.

Russia seeks new soldiers for its war as the full-scale invasion continues to take a heavy toll on its military’s manpower.

All Russian citizens and foreigners who signed up for one-year service between Aug. 1 and the end of 2024 will be eligible for the increased bonus.

The document says that the payment is intended to provide “additional means of social support” for soldiers and their families. It also recommends that Russian occupation authorities in Ukraine offer an additional sum of 400,000 rubles.

Regional authorities across Russia have already begun offering other financial incentives for potential recruits.

Moscow Mayor Sergey Sobyanin signed a decree on July 23 establishing a one-time signing bonus of 1.9 million rubles ($21,200) for city residents who join the military.

While other regional authorities have also instituted their own signing bonuses, such as 1 million rubles ($11,200) in Krasnodar Krai and 500,000 rubles ($5,600) in Dagestan, the Moscow signing bonus appears to be the highest reported so far.

Russia conscripted around 300,000 reservists during a limited mobilization in September 2022 but has sought to avoid a wide-sweeping draft, often targeting recruits from economically weaker regions or migrants.

Ukraine believes that Russia continues to covertly recruit around 30,000 soldiers monthly, allowing the Russian military to balance out its losses.

While Moscow does not publish its casualty figures, Kyiv believes that Russian losses have exceeded 570,000 soldiers killed or wounded as of late July.

According to leaked U.S. intelligence documents reported on by The Economist, Russia’s casualty rates can be as many as 728,000 Russian soldiers killed, injured, or captured.

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US reveals value of lethal weaponry sent to Ukraine during war

As Biden’s tenure draws to a close, further arms deliveries will hinge on the outcome of the November election. Vice President Kamala Harris is expected to continue current policies on Ukraine if she wins the vote, whereas Republican nominee Donald Trump has threatened to cut aid to Kiev.

According to a fact sheet released by the Pentagon on Tuesday, since the start of the conflict between Kiev and Moscow in February 2022, the US has allocated more than $55.4 billion in aid to Ukraine.

The document lists an array of munitions for air defense, artillery, mortar systems, anti-tank and anti-ship missiles, tanks, helicopters, drones, and a wide array of other battlefield hardware.

On Monday, the Pentagon announced a new $1.7 billion package for Ukraine, consisting largely of air defense munitions, artillery and mortar rounds, small arms, and explosives. It represents the 62nd tranche of equipment to be provided from the Pentagon’s inventories for Ukraine and since August 2021, the DOD statement said.

Previously, aid proposals for Kiev have struggled to gain bipartisan support. A $61 billion package was stalled for months in Congress earlier this year due to opposition from Republicans, before being passed in April.

Republican nominee and former President Donald Trump has repeatedly threatened to scale back assistance to Kiev if elected. One of his key policy proposals is to structure the aid as a loan. He has also pledged to end the conflict within 24 hours of reclaiming office.

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China wants the grain. Good.
Also, China being China, plays both sides for its own advantage. Good for you China.

China Increases Grain Imports from Ukraine after Russian Blockade Was Broken

Report: US Sending Cluster Munitions To Ukraine Via Germany

Germany has publicly opposed the transfer of banned cluster munitions, but new evidence indicates it may be facilitating it. That stand is at odds with its longstanding support for the 2008 Convention on Cluster Munitions banning these weapons.

Cluster munitions are delivered from aircraft or fired in rockets, missiles, and artillery projectiles. They open in the air to disperse multiple submunitions over a wide area and many fail to detonate as designed and pose a long-lasting danger, like landmines.

Repeated Russian cluster munition attacks have killed and injured hundreds of Ukrainian civilians since 2022, while Ukrainian forces have also used cluster munitions, resulting in civilian casualties. Since July 2023, U.S. President Joseph Biden has approved five transfers to Ukraine of U.S. cluster munitions delivered by 155mm artillery projectiles and by ballistic missiles.

Russia, Ukraine, and the United States have not joined the cluster munitions treaty, which prohibits the weapons. However, 112 countries, including Germany, have ratified the treaty because of the foreseeable harm caused to civilians. At least 35 countries party to the convention regard the transit and foreign stockpiling of cluster munitions as prohibited by the convention.

When the U.S. transfers were first announced, more than two dozen world leaders expressed concern. German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock said that as a member of the Convention on Cluster Munitions, Germany “opposes sending cluster munitions to Ukraine.”

That principled stand has been brought into question following a documentary by Germany media outlet ARD’s “Panorama” program, which aired July 25. A spokesperson for the U.S. Army for Europe and Africa confirmed in writing to ARD that U.S. 155mm M864 and M483A1 cluster munition artillery projectiles are stored at the U.S. Army’s ammunition storage depot in Miesau in Rhineland-Palatinate, Germany. From there, ARD reported, they have been shipped to Ukraine as part of U.S. military assistance, transiting across Germany and Poland in the process.

When asked to comment on the ARD report, a Defense Department spokesperson, Charlie Dietz, told Responsible Statecraft that “it is general U.S. policy to not discuss specific details of military logistics or the movement of munitions for security reasons.” He did not deny that U.S. cluster munitions held at the U.S. base in Germany have been transferred to Ukraine and said, “the movement of munitions and all other items by the U.S. military is done in accordance with U.S. obligations under applicable international agreements, U.S. law, and DoD regulations, including safety standards.”

Germany’s “Status of Forces Agreement” with the U.S. stipulates how Germany hosts U.S. troops on its territory. There is little transparency surrounding the agreement, but it appears to be permissive when it comes to cluster munitions. This is because U.S. stocks of cluster munitions held on American military bases in Germany are not regarded under the agreement to be under German jurisdiction and control.

Germany’s defense minister and other officials told ARD that they could not confirm the presence of U.S. cluster munitions on military bases in Germany and had no knowledge about whether U.S. cluster munitions have passed through German territory or its airspace. But the U.S. Army spokesperson told ARD that German armed forces receive “documentation of the contents of the shipments” of munitions sent from the U.S. base at Miesau.

This news is dismaying given Germany’s exemplary leadership role in the convention. Germany was among the first 30 ratifications to trigger the convention’s entry into force on August 1, 2010. It hosted a major international conference on the destruction of cluster munitions stocks in Berlin in 2009 and completed the destruction of its cluster munition stockpile in 2015. Germany served as president of the convention in 2017.

In contrast, the United States did not participate, even as an observer, in the 2007–2008 Oslo Process that created the convention. However, U.S. Department of State cables made public by Wikileaks show that Washington attempted to influence its allies, partners, and other states during the process to affect the outcome of the negotiations, especially with respect to the issue of “interoperability” – joint military operations between the U.S. and states parties to the convention.

The U.S. withdrew its cluster munition stocks from its bases in Norway and the United Kingdom in 2010, but the cables released by Wikileaks showed it may still stockpile cluster munitions in states parties such as Germany, Italy, and Spain. The U.S. government has not responded to repeated calls from civil society groups to provide details on the specific types, quantities, and dud rates of the cluster munitions transferred to Ukraine or on the transit points and anticipated end date for the transfers.

President Biden should immediately halt the transfer of cluster munitions given the significant short-term and long-term humanitarian and human rights risks to civilians. Washington should take steps to accede to the Convention on Cluster Munitions without delay.

Meanwhile, Germany should tell the United States to remove its stocks of cluster munitions without delay. It should be clear in opposing any transit of cluster munitions across its territory, airspace, or waters.

All countries that are party to the convention should call for ending the transit and foreign stockpiling of cluster munitions. They should not intentionally or deliberately assist, induce, or encourage any activity prohibited under the Convention on Cluster Munitions.

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Slovakia siding with Russia.

The POMs do tend to drone on. Well done UK.

Britain to deliver ‘more and better’ drones to Ukraine

The UK government has confirmed its commitment to significantly increasing the number of drones provided to Ukraine, with plans to deliver over 10,000 aerial and maritime drones this financial year.

This announcement was made in response to a parliamentary question from James Cartlidge, Shadow Secretary of State for Defence, regarding the £3.5 billion defence export finance deal for Ukraine announced on 18 July 2024.

In his written response, Luke Pollard, The Parliamentary Under-Secretary of State for Defence, clarified that the increase in drones and other uncrewed systems for the Ukrainian armed forces is primarily funded through the Ministry of Defence’s annual £3 billion support rather than the recent finance deal.

Pollard stated, “The UK is committed to increasing the quantity and quality of drones being provided to Ukraine, through national and international partnerships for example through the UK co-lead Drone Capability Coalition. We will deliver over 10,000 drones (both aerial and maritime) to Ukraine this financial year, with deliveries well underway.”

He further explained that due to rapid changes on the battlefield, these drones are being procured and iterated quickly using the Ministry of Defence’s existing support funds.

“Due to rapid battlefield changes, these drones are being procured and iterated rapidly using the Ministry of Defence’s annual £3 billion of support to Ukraine, rather than the £3.5 billion defence export finance deal,” Pollard noted.

The conflict in Ukraine has seen the deployment of drones on an unprecedented scale. Thousands of unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) have been used to track enemy forces, guide artillery, and bomb targets.

This technological shift has transformed modern warfare, with drones like the tiny, inexpensive FPV (first-person view) drones playing a critical role.

Originally designed for civilian use, these drones are now being repurposed as effective weapons, controlled by pilots on the ground and often crashing into targets laden with explosives. This innovative use of drones underscores the evolving nature of warfare in the 21st century.

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Can anyone help on this one?

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