Russian losses per 06/10/24 reported by the Ukrainian general staff
+1250 men
+3 tanks
+21 AFVs
+55 artillery pieces
+49 UAVs
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Insane numbers when you think back 13 months as a daily loss rate. Now average and i get disappointed when i dont see the ! at the end.
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Putin’s cannon fodder: an anthem for Russia’s doomed youth
6 October 2024, 6:00am
New Russian army conscripts attend a religious service in St Petersburg (Credit: Getty images)
Many were killed. Others hid in the fields, forests and basements, sometimes for days, before surrendering to the Ukrainian forces. Frightened, ill-equipped and with very little – if any – training, hundreds of Russian conscripts (prizyvniki) have been captured in the two months since Ukraine’s incursion into Russia’s Kursk region began. Yet another of the innumerable tragedies of Putin’s criminal war, the plight of conscripts is a window into Russia’s ability to conduct a ‘long war’. When neither the army’s relentless press-ganging nor its exorbitant sign-up bonuses and soldiers’ salaries appear to attract enough men to make up for the staggering casualties on the front, it is these boys who are sent to the slaughter.
Reservists, those who had served before or had military training in college, were the first to plug the manpower gaps in Russia’s army: 300,000 were called up in a ‘partial mobilisation’ in the autumn of 2022. Those who survived are still in Ukraine. In response to the increasingly vocal demands by soldiers’ wives and mothers for their release (or at least for them to be granted temporary leave), the Ministry of Defence told the women not to expect their husbands and sons back until their deaths or the war’s end, whichever came first. Two years on, this mobilisation decree has not been officially rescinded, allowing the authorities to continue to call up troops on the sly without announcing another mass draft.
How many thousands of boys will be killed before Russians begin to oppose the war?
The Kremlin has also raided prisons. Presidential pardons issued after half a year in the trenches to volunteering inmates, including murderers and rapists, made such recruitment initially very successful. So much so, that the prison population shrank by an estimated 58,000 last year and a number of prisons were completely or partially closed. Yet once the pardons were replaced last year by probationary terms and the six months of service in Ukraine became endless deployments, the flow of ‘patriotic’ criminals began to dry up despite pressure from the prison authorities.
Along the way, Putin has been turning the Russian military into a mercenary army. In June, the Kremlin increased sign-up bonuses – already over twice the average monthly salary – by more than double, from 195,000 roubles (£1,556**)** to 400,000 (£3,193). The actual payouts are much larger still as local authorities are expected to sweeten the deal. Richer provinces have supplemented the payments to astronomically high levels by national standards. Krasnodar, Tatarstan and Saint Petersburg each offer bonuses of over one million roubles (£8,000), with Moscow topping the scale at 1.9 million roubles (£15,170). Counting the bonus, a Russian private in Ukraine can earn up to 3.25 million roubles (£26,000) a year, or over three times the national average. (If the US were to adjust its volunteers’ pay accordingly, a first-year soldier would make over $178,000 (£134,000) annually.)
Yet even these enormous salaries are failing to generate troops in the volumes the Kremlin deems necessary. According to the admittedly unreliable data published by the Russian authorities, between 166,000 and 190,000 volunteers joined up the first half of this year – far below the numbers needed to meet the Ministry of Defense goal of 745,000 for the whole year. The reason the Kremlin needs such immense numbers of recruits, of course, is Russia’s astounding casualty rate: an estimated nearly 200,000 have been killed and between 462,000 and 728,000 total casualties since the beginning of the war in February 2022.
And so Putin has reached for the prizyvniki. Before the war, their average age was 20. There is no information on how old today’s conscripts are – probably because of the high number of 18-year-olds straight out of school among their ranks. As much as Putin might have wanted to avoid sending boys into battle, he had little choice. Following the Soviet Union’s war in Afghanistan and Russia’s conflict in Chechnya there had been a strong and consistent societal opposition to sending draftees into combat. Several weeks into the invasion of Ukraine, the Ministry of Defense admitted that some conscripts were on the front line.
At the time, in an effort to assuage public opinion, Putin promised that soldiers serving mandatory military service would not ‘participate in military activities’, leaving it to ‘military professionals’ to do battle. Yet just a year later, in April 2023, the Duma quietly changed the law to ‘allow’ rookies to become ‘professionals’ by simply signing contracts immediately after being drafted. (Until then, only draftees with at least three months of prior military service or specialised technical and higher education degrees had been allowed to enlist.).
Some 18-year olds signed up out of boyish bravado and under peer pressure. Others were undoubtedly ‘persuaded’ to join by their commanders. This August, conscripts were reported to have been sent to fight in Kursk as reinforcements immediately after enlisting. As the Kremlin is trying to field the estimated 30,000-40,000 troops necessary to push the Ukrainians out of Kursk, more magically spawned ‘professionals’ will be sent into the trenches.
There will be no shortage of boys: this year’s annual spring draft netted 150,000 conscripts – and the autumn draft started on 1 October. And so there will be more grieving mothers like Anna from Novosibirsk, whose 18-year-old son Aleksei was killed in Ukraine, having been sent there after two weeks of ‘training’. Or Anastasiya from Perm, who is still waiting for the body of her son Georgiy, who was reported killed in June. She hopes he may still be alive.
How many thousands – or more likely tens of thousands – of boys will be killed before Russians begin to oppose the war? For now, no amount of protest from Russia’s mothers and wives will stop the Kremlin from turning legions of their husbands and sons into cannon fodder.
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Russia Issues Nuclear Threat to US
Published Oct 05, 2024 at 7:08 AM EDTUpdated Oct 05, 2024 at 9:57 AM EDT
Russia “will not hesitate” to resume nuclear weapons testing if similar steps are taken by the United States, according to Sergei Ryabkov, the country’s deputy foreign minister.
According to Russia’s TASS news agency, Ryabkov made the comments during an interview with state-backed RT television network, though there are no indications the U.S. is planning new nuclear weapons tests.
The remarks came against the backdrop of renewed nuclear threats from senior Russian officials as the Kremlin seeks to discourage Western military support for Ukraine. Speaking at Russia’s Security Council on September 25, President Vladimir Putin hinted Moscow could respond with nuclear weapons to what it described as a “joint attack” from a non-nuclear-armed country backed by an ally with nuclear capability.
Speaking to RT, Ryabkov said that if Washington conducts new nuclear weapons tests “we will not hesitate” to respond in kind. Ryabkov was repeating a warning he made to Russian news agencies in September when he said Moscow would not initiate fresh nuclear tests unless the U.S. made the first move.
In his September remarks, Ryabkov insisted “nothing has changed” in Russia’s nuclear doctrine, adding: “As defined and formulated by the president of the Russian Federation, we can conduct such tests, but we will not conduct them if the United States refrains from such steps.”
The U.S. has not conducted any nuclear weapons tests since 1992 and there are no indications it plans to do so. Both Washington and Moscow signed, but did not ratify, the 1996 Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty which prohibits any nuclear weapon detonations for testing purposes.
Newsweek contacted the Department of Defense press office and the Russian Foreign Ministry for comment on Saturday by email outside of regular office hours.
Stock photo showing a Russian police officer near the Kremlin on June 24, 2023, in Moscow. A senior Russian official has warned the country “will not hesitate” to resume nuclear weapons testing if the U.S. does.
Speaking to Newsweek Mark Galeotti, a senior associate fellow at the Royal United Services Institute, said: “This notion that a non-nuclear state that is being supported and backed by a nuclear state could trigger a nuclear response is a pretty transparent way of saying, ‘If Ukraine launches some kind of major offensive in those circumstances, we reserve unto ourselves the right to be able to go nuclear in response.’”
Speaking at the U.N. Security Council on September 28, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov claimed Washington and London have “already prepared Europe to leap into a suicide venture,” highlighting what he called the “pointlessness and danger of the very idea to fight to victory with a nuclear power like Russia.”
In July, the U.S. announced it plans to deploy long-range missiles to Germany from 2026, including SM-6s, Tomahawks and developmental hypersonic weapons “which have significantly longer range than current land-based fires in Europe.”
Russian forces have continued making slow and costly advances in the eastern Donbas region of Ukraine, and now control 98.8 percent of the Luhansk province as of October 3, according to Angelica Evans, a Russia researcher with the U.S.-based Institute for the Study of War think tank.
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I admire your determination Benny, but i dont think 1408 really wants to understand
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I really hope the Bandvagn arrived on a hype train…
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Minister of Defence of the Netherlands confirms that they have transferred their first batch of F-16s to Ukraine, with the remainder to follow “in the coming months”.
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Scraping the bottom of the barrel if they’re willingly recruiting gingers…
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Ukraine braces for Russian push near Orikhiv in Zaporizhzhia Oblast in coming days
October 6, 2024 12:16 PM
A Ukrainian soldier of the 65th Mechanized Brigade walks in the trench built by Russian forces near the front-line village of Robotyne in Zaporizhzhia Oblast on Oct. 1, 2023, amid the Russian invasion of Ukraine. (Roman Pilipey/AFP via Getty Images)
Russian forces are massing for a breakthrough in the direction of Orikhiv and Mala Tokmachka in Zaporizhzhia Oblast in the coming days, Southern Defense Forces spokesperson Vladyslav Voloshyn said on air on Oct. 5.
This comes as another warning of a potential Russian push in the southern Zaporizhzhia Oblast just as Moscow’s troops continue advancing in Ukraine’s east.
“If they achieve a breakthrough, Russia will be able to fire at logistical routes connecting Zaporizhzhia to the east of Ukraine,” Voloshyn said.
“Russia will try to succeed at any cost to cut off our logistics.”
Ukrainian intelligence shows that Russian forces are amassing personnel and logistical support in the area, and “in a few days, they will likely start new offensive operations,” the spokesperson noted.
The estimated Russian advance near Orikhiv and Mala Tokmachka in Zaporizhzhia Oblast, Ukraine, as of Oct. 5, 2024, according to DeepState. (DeepState/OpenStreetMaps)
Voloshyn expects Russia to deploy small assault groups backed by armored vehicles.
Orikhiv is a Ukrainian-held town roughly 50 kilometers (31 miles) southeast of the regional center, Zaporizhziha, and roughly 10 kilometers (6 miles) north of the front line.
The area was the main axis of Ukraine’s southern counteroffensive in 2023, which led to the liberation of the settlement of Robotyne but achieved no major breakthrough.
Russia intensified its attacks in the south earlier this year, claiming to recapture Robotyne. Ukraine has repeatedly denied this claim.
Voloshyn warned that Moscow is “amassing personnel” in Zaporizhzhia Oblast on Sept. 28. The spokesperson said then that Russia is readying a new maneuver near the occupied village of Pryiutne but added that a full-blown offensive would require larger numbers.
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They only reset the Doomsday Clock once a year apparently. I reckon if they reset it today, it would read 5 seconds to midnight.
The Doomsday Clock reveals how close we are to total annihilation
Updated 1:53 PM EST, Tue January 23, 2024
The Doomsday Clock that has been ticking for 77 years is no ordinary clock — it attempts to gauge how close humanity is to destroying the world.
On Tuesday, the clock was again set at 90 seconds to midnight — the closest to the hour it has ever been, according to the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, which created the clock in 1947. Midnight represents the moment at which people will have made Earth uninhabitable. Last year the Bulletin set the clock at 90 seconds to midnight mainly due to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the increased risk of nuclear escalation.
From 2020 to 2022, the clock was set at 100 seconds to midnight.
The clock isn’t designed to definitively measure existential threats, but rather to spark conversations about difficult scientific topics such as climate change, according to the Bulletin.
The decision to keep the clock at the same time this year is largely due to ongoing concerns about the war in Ukraine, the Israel-Gaza conflict, the potential of a nuclear arms race, and the climate crisis, Rachel Bronson, president and CEO of the Bulletin, said in a news conference announcing the time Tuesday.
“Trends continue to point ominously towards global catastrophe,” Bronson added. “The war in Ukraine poses an ever-present risk of nuclear escalation. And the October 7 attack in Israel and war in Gaza provides further illustration of the horrors of modern war, even without nuclear escalation.
“The countries with nuclear weapons are engaged in modernization programs that threaten to create a new nuclear arms race,” Bronson said. “Earth experienced its hottest year on record and massive floods, fires and other climate-related disasters have taken root. And lack of action on climate change threatens billions of lives and livelihoods.”
Bronson cited recent advances in artificial intelligence as another concern, saying they “raise a variety of questions about how to control a technology that could improve or threaten civilization in countless ways.”
What is the Doomsday Clock?
The Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists was founded by a group of scientists who worked on the Manhattan Project, the code name for the development of the atomic bomb during World War II.
Originally, the organization was conceived to measure nuclear threats, but in 2007 the Bulletin made the decision to include climate change in its calculations.
Over the last 77 years, the clock’s time has changed according to how close the scientists believe the human race is to total destruction. Some years the time changes, and some years it doesn’t.
The Doomsday Clock is set every year by the experts on the Bulletin’s Science and Security Board in consultation with its Board of Sponsors, which currently includes nine Nobel laureates.
Although the clock has been an effective wake-up call when it comes to reminding people about the cascading crises the planet is facing, some have questioned its usefulness.
"It’s an imperfect metaphor,” Michael E. Mann, Presidential Distinguished Professor in the earth and environmental science department at the University of Pennsylvania, told CNN in 2022, highlighting that the clock’s framing combines different types of risk that have different characteristics and occur in different timescales. Still, he adds it “remains an important rhetorical device that reminds us, year after year, of the tenuousness of our current existence on this planet.”
Every model has constraints, Eryn MacDonald, an analyst with the Union of Concerned Scientists’ Global Security Program, told CNN in 2022, adding that the Bulletin has made thoughtful decisions each year on how to get people’s attention about existential threats and the required action.
“While I wish we could go back to talking about minutes to midnight instead of seconds, unfortunately that no longer reflects reality,” she said.
What happens if the clock reaches midnight?
The clock has never reached midnight, and Bronson hopes it never will.
“When the clock is at midnight, that means there’s been some sort of nuclear exchange or catastrophic climate change that’s wiped out humanity,” she said. “We never really want to get there and we won’t know it when we do.”
How accurate is the clock?
The clock’s time isn’t meant to measure threats, but rather to spark conversation and encourage public engagement in scientific topics like climate change and nuclear disarmament.
If the clock is able to do that, then Bronson views it as a success.
When a new time is set on the clock, people listen, she said. At the COP26 climate talks in Glasgow, UK, in 2021, former Prime Minister Boris Johnson cited the Doomsday Clock when talking about the climate crisis the world is facing, Bronson noted.
Bronson said she hopes people will discuss whether they agree with the Bulletin’s decision and have fruitful talks about what the driving forces of the change are.
Moving the clock back with bold, concrete actions is still possible. In fact, the hand moved the farthest away from midnight — a whopping 17 minutes before the hour — in 1991, when then President George H.W. Bush’s administration signed the Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty with the Soviet Union. In 2016, the clock was at three minutes before midnight as a result of the Iran nuclear agreement and the Paris climate accord.
What can an individual do to turn back time on the clock?
“We at the Bulletin believe that because humans created these threats, we can reduce them,” Bronson said. “But doing so is not easy, nor has it ever been. And it requires serious work and global engagement at all levels of society.”
Don’t underestimate the power of talking about these important issues with your peers, Bronson said.
“You might not feel it because you’re not doing anything, but we know that public engagement moves (a) leader to do things,” she said.
To make a positive impact on climate change, look at your daily habits and see if there are small changes you can make in your life such as how often you walk versus drive and how your home is heated, Bronson explained.
Eating seasonally and locally, reducing food waste, and recycling properly are other ways to help mitigate, or deal with the effects of, t
https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.cnn.com/cnn/2024/01/23/world/doomsday-clock-2024-climate-scn
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Russia Ukraine Conflict: Intense Battles for Gas Platforms Near Snake Island Unfold
Published: Sunday, Oct 06, 2024, 09:14 [IST]
New footage shows Ukrainian forces in fierce battles with Russian troops near Snake Island in the Black Sea. This area has been a target since the invasion began in February 2022. Ukraine has now reclaimed it, capturing key gas platforms. This move challenges Russian control in this important maritime zone.
Snake Island holds strategic value due to its location. Controlling it means having influence over the Black Sea region. The recent operation by Ukraine highlights their determination to regain control. The battle for these gas platforms is a significant step in the ongoing conflict.
The video captures the intensity of the clashes and the bold actions taken by Ukrainian forces. It provides a glimpse into the high-stakes environment of this conflict. The footage underscores the importance of Snake Island and its surrounding resources.
The battle for Snake Island is not just about territory. It also involves control over valuable resources like gas production platforms. These platforms are crucial for energy supply and economic stability. Ukraine’s success in reclaiming them is a notable achievement in their efforts against Russian forces.
This development is part of a larger struggle between Ukraine and Russia over control of strategic locations. The ongoing conflict has seen many such battles, each with significant implications for both countries. The situation remains tense as both sides continue to vie for dominance.
Snake Island’s location makes it a key point for military and economic strategies. Holding this island allows for better monitoring and control of naval activities in the Black Sea. This adds another layer of complexity to the conflict between Ukraine and Russia.
https://www.oneindia.com/videos/russia-ukraine-battle-gas-platforms-snake-island-011-4184948.html
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Oh dear! Russia could be forced to conclude the war by late 2025 due to finances. I’m figuring Russia knows that Ukraine gets a vote on the matter of the war concluding.
The Russian economy can’t sustain Putin’s war on Ukraine much longer, expert says
October 7, 2024 at 5:05 AM GMT+8
Vladimir Putin at a military parade in 2017.
Russia’s economy is in much worse shape than it looks, potentially forcing Vladimir Putin to stop waging war on Ukraine as early as next year, according to economist and author Anders Åslund.
In a recent op-ed on Project Syndicate, he cited financial, technological, and demographic headwinds weighing on a Russian economy that’s headed for “near stagnation,” and estimated Western sanctions are reducing GDP by 2%-3% each year.
“Moreover, the situation will get only worse for Putin, perhaps even impeding his campaign of aggression against Ukraine,” Åslund added.
He noted that Ukraine’s spy service claimed last month to have Russian documents that indicate the Kremlin wants to conclude the war as soon as late-2025 amid tightening economic and financial pressure.
“Whether true or not, this scenario would make sense,” Åslund, who wrote Russia’s Crony Capitalism: The Path from Market Economy to Kleptocracy, said.
For one thing, Western sanctions have stoked “hidden inflation” in Russia while preventing it from raising funds on global financial markets and instead forcing it to rely on reserves.
Amid the constraints, the Kremlin has limited its annual budget deficit to 2% of GDP, or about $40 billion. But given that liquid reserves in Russia’s national wealth fund had been whittled down to $55 billion as of March, state reserves should run out next year, he said.
Meanwhile, Russia’s technological backwardness has been aggravated by the brain drain of the best and the brightest fleeing the country after the invasion as well as Western sanctions, Soviet-like repression, and Putin’s “kleptocracy,” Åslund added.
Elsewhere in Russia’s economy, weapons exports have collapsed as demand from the country’s own troops prevent sales to foreign countries. Putin’s war machine also has a manpower problem as low unemployment, the mass exodus of Russians, and mounting war casualties limit the ability to raise more troops.
With financial reserves running dry, Russia will have trouble making the budget math work. Åslund estimated that Russia will spend about $190 billion, or 10% of GDP, on the war this year, and the Kremlin is running out places to cut from—other than war expenses—as the invasion nears its three-year anniversary.
“Ukraine could win the war if it had an additional $50 billion per year, as well as a green light to bomb military targets inside Russia,” he said.
Others have also issued dire assessments of Russia’s economy. The Bank of Finland’s institute for emerging economies published a report Thursday that said growth will slow to just 1% in 2025 and 2026 from 3.5% this year.
To maintain the current rate of growth, Russia would have to make major gains in productivity, but that’s highly unlikely because of all the investment going into the military and the war, the report said.
Labor shortages and the inability to buy spare parts or new equipment from the West will also hinder economic growth, it added.
“Given Russia’s myopic policy shifts, conditions in its wartime economy could change suddenly,” the report said.
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Extracted from The Guardian Ukraine update.
Sun 6 Oct 2024 20.05 EDT
…The Dutch defence minister, Ruben Brekelmans, said on a surprise visit to Kyiv on Sunday that his country will invest €400m in advanced drone development with Ukraine and deliver more F-16s in the coming months. “Both surveillance drones, more defensive drones, but also the attack drones, because we see that Ukraine needs those more offensive drones also to target military facilities,” Brekelmans said. The Netherlands has pledged €10bn in military support for Ukraine since the beginning of the Russian invasion and spent around €4bn so far.
After visiting Kharkiv, pummelled by Russian glide bombs, Brekelmans said attacking military targets in Russia was the only way to defend the city. The Netherlands has driven international partners to supply Ukraine with F-16 jets and pledged 24 of them. The first batch is already operating in Ukrainian airspace, according to the minister, while the others will be delivered “in the upcoming months and maybe beginning of next year”. The Netherlands has announced a plan to assemble a Patriot air-defence system for Ukraine . While Brekelmans said it had struggled to source some parts, Ukraine was already using one Dutch-supplied Patriot radar and “three launchers are going to be delivered very soon”…
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Russia dropped a Kinzal ballistic missile on the stealth drone prototype two days after it crashed in Ukrainian territory.
I’m very curious how much Ukraine managed to lift onto the back of a truck before the very late missile was launched.
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