Cue Baldrick with a cunning plan, to target the build up of RU troops and supplies and then hit them with plenty of drones in the staging areas.
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Hit em again.
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Thank you for sharing!!
Amazing photos. Each one a story. I hope there will be one of Russia’s economic collapse soon.
Thanks to your contribution to this thread - as well as many others (you know who you are). I visit daily as this is the best place for updates.
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The past year has seen Russia advance at the fastest rate since the opening week of the war. This has freaked a lot of people out as key Ukrainian defensive positions were lost one by one. Thing is, Russia hasn’t taken much territory relative to the shear size of Ukraine. They’ve something like 0.1% of Ukraine’s landmass in a year.
Ukraine recently rolled across the border into Kusk oblast, taking a similar area of Russian land as Russia’s gains. That’s aimed to be a bargaining chip for future peace negotiations. It was also intended to pull forces away from the hottest areas of the front, which didn’t really work.
Manpower wise, Ukraine delayed increasing conscription for 6 months too long. This is likely due to Zelensky now being overdue for a Presidential election (with popular consent) and thus not having the clout needed to push an unpopular law through parliament. It meant that Ukraine ended up with an infantry shortage to hold the line right when Russia started their summer offensive. This cause Ukraine to lose a lot of good defences that should have been kept. They’ve got a new batch of conscripts coming through the training process and should be at the front in the next month or so.
Russia is paying extraordinary bonuses and wages to attract volunteers as Putin can’t risk an unpopular round of conscription. They have now increased signing bonuses to 4.6x the annual wage in some areas. This is attracting 20-30k volunteers a month, but generally low quality types. It is also avoiding the high skill types from getting pulled out of the war economy. The rate that signing bonuses are increasing looks like the recruitment is starting to struggle, so long term should be tough to continue.
OSINT analysts are counting the Russian deaths captured on drone camera and that’s running at around 36k deaths per year. You can add to that those in destroyed vehicles and those not caught on published footage. Good chance Russia is losing around 70-100k+ troops killed per year and 150-200k seriously injured. Basically their recruitment is barely keeping up with the losses. But life in Russia is cheap and the meat grinder approach is kinda working.
On the strategic front, Russia’s bombing campaign of Ukraine’s energy infrastructure has been reasonably successful to a point. Most thermal and hydro power plants are out of action. But Ukraine has a massive nuclear power sector, which the Russians haven’t hit for obvious reasons. That should keep critical supplies going through winter, but it’s going to be extraordinarily cold without heating for many.
Beyond that, Ukraine’s economy is growing at about 2.4% and their domestic weapons production is ramping up. Ukraine is now producing about 200-300 brand new howitzers per year. They are domestically making artillery and mortar ammunition. Of critical note, they are making millions of drones per year, most with 10-20km range, but some of which have up to 800km range.
Western supply has slowed down as Cold War stocks are emptied and new vehicle production running at peacetime rates. Artillery shell production in the US and Europe is soon to surpass Russia, having increased from maybe 200k per year before the war to 2-3 million shells by mid next year. The only thing keeping Russia ahead in shell count is dodgy crap from North Korea, which is reportedly now providing half of Russia’s ammunition.
Of critical note, Ukraine recently hit a train with some drones that was delivering ammo to a munitions depot about 600km behind the front. The 1000s of tonnes stored in the open cooked off and wiped out the entire base, taking out dozens hardened bunkers and up to 30,000T of stored missiles and shells.
Then Ukraine did it to 2 other munitions depots the next day, to similar spectacular results. They wiped out about 2 months of Russian shell production in a weekend. Oil refineries and tank farms have been struck on a weekly basis of late, along with hits on air bases and other critical military sites up to 800km behind the front. Ukraine has learnt a lot from Russia’s Shahed drone attacks and returned the favour with interest.
Russia’s war economy is running like the steam train from Back to the Future part 3. Every few months they throw another packet of defence spending into the economic furnace and inflation picks up speed. Currently the 20 year bond rate is around 15%, compared to Australia at 4.62%. Skilled labour shortages are real. We don’t know when that train will go off the cliff, but there’s a sense of inevitability about it. It may be a sudden collapse during the war or a long term downturn over the next 20 years, but things don’t look good.
Vehicles wise, Russia has more stored stocks than the West, but it’s now largely complete ■■■■■. Vehicles from the 50s and 60s are being deployed to the front. Russia has mass and will be able to keep throwing stuff at the Ukrainians for a while yet, but they’ll be tapping out sometime late next year. So far Russia has lost at least 18,250 vehicles and planes in the war, only counting those with photographic evidence. The real number is likely 20-30% higher.
So yeah. No big wins really for Ukraine of late, but the Russian wins are relatively small and coming at an extraordinary cost. That momentum is likely to continue, but this isn’t the type of victory that Russia can withstand for long. The situation is going to get far tougher for Russia as we enter 2025, this has been the lowest ebb for Ukraine and we should see them pick up from here.
Assuming Trump doesn’t pull the rug out from underneath them that is…
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Another Chinese desertcross golf buggy bites it
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Haven’t seen it in this thread [maybe I missed it among the many posts today] but was reported on Quora that Ukraine drones?missiles? got through Russian air defence and hit their officers academy in Moscow.
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I think you’re right
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Storm Shadow/Scalp-EG cruise missile load-out
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Australia Sends Ukraine the Corvo Cardboard Drone
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Nightshift bump
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Russia lost at least five divisions since operations to seize Avdiivka started – ISW
07.10.2024 12:48
The willingness of the Russian military command to achieve limited tactical success in exchange for significant losses of armored vehicles will become more expensive due to the limits to Russia’s Soviet-era vehicle stockpiles.
This is stated in a report by the Institute for Study of War (ISW), Ukrinform reports.
According to the report, Russian forces have reportedly lost at least five divisions’ worth of armored vehicles and tanks in the Pokrovsk area since beginning their offensive operation to seize Avdiivka in October 2023 and during intensified Russian offensive operations in western Donetsk Oblast in Summer 2024.
ISW experts noted that an open-source X (formerly Twitter) user tracking visually confirmed Russian vehicle and equipment losses in Ukraine stated on October 4 that the user has confirmed that Russian forces have lost 1,830 pieces of heavy equipment in the Pokrovsk area since October 9, 2023.
"The X user’s assessment based on visually confirmed vehicle losses is likely conservative given that not all Russian vehicle losses are visually documented. The actual number of Russian vehicle losses in the Pokrovsk area is likely higher than reported,” the report says.
It is noted that the Russian military command may not be willing or able to accept the current scale and rate of vehicle loss in the coming months and years given the constraints in Russia’s defense industrial production, limits to Russia’s Soviet-era vehicle stockpiles, and the Russian military’s failure to achieve operationally significant territorial advances through mechanized maneuver.
Analysts noted that Russian forces have only advanced about 40 km in the Avdiivka/Pokrovsk operational direction since October 2023 and a loss of over five divisions’ worth of equipment for such tactical gains is not sustainable indefinitely without a fundamental shift in Russia‘s capability to resource its war.
"The Russian military command’s willingness to pursue limited tactical advances in exchange for significant armored vehicle losses will become increasingly costly as Russian forces burn through finite Soviet-era weapons and equipment stocks in the coming months and years,” the report says.
ISW added that Russia will likely struggle to adequately supply its units with materiel in the long term without transferring the Russian economy to a wartime footing and significantly increasing Russia’s defense industrial production rates — a move that Russian President Vladimir Putin has sought to avoid thus far.
As Ukrinform reported, the Russian army’s losses in Ukraine over the past week amounted to 8,660 soldiers and 1,540 pieces of weapons and military equipment.
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The fighting 72nd Brigade, achieving legendary status. Good luck to the incoming C.O. and ‘job well done’ to the outgoing officer.
Ukraine’s 72nd Brigade that defended Vuhledar has new commander
October 7, 2024 2:02 PM
Colonel Oleksandr Okhrimenko, the recently appointed commander of the 72nd Mechanized Brigade. (72nd Mechanized Brigade/Facebook)
Colonel Oleksandr Okhrimenko was appointed the new commander of the 72nd Mechanized Brigade, replacing his predecessor Ivan Vinnik, the unit said on Oct. 7.
Okhrimenko, who previously headed the 14th Mechanized Brigade and the Odesa Oblast enlistment office, took over shortly after the 72nd Brigade was forced to withdraw from the key front-line town of Vuhledar in Donetsk Oblast.
“We have been hardened by Donbas. Battles for Bakhmut, Pavlivka, Vuhledar, Mykilske, Novomykhailivka, Vodiane. Vuhledar again… The enemy did not break us during this period,” the unit said on Facebook.
After withdrawing from the town, the 72nd Brigade’s troops moved to a new defense line to continue holding back Russian forces, Arsenii Prylepko, a spokesperson for the 72nd Separate Mechanized Brigade, told Hromadske.
“The ‘Black Zaporizhzhians’ will be led to battle by Colonel Oleksandr Okhrimenko. New goals, tasks, purpose, and acquisition of new capabilities.”
Okhrimenko has been taking part in the war with Russia since the outbreak of hostilities in Donbas in 2014, receiving numerous awards for his service.
While in command of the 14th Mechanized Brigade at the start of the full-scale invasion, Okhrimenko led his unit in battles in Kyiv, Mykolaiv, and Kharkiv oblasts, as well as Donbas.
Okhrimenko was appointed to lead the regional enlistment office in Odesa in July 2023 after its chief, Yevhen Borisov, was dismissed and detained over a scandal related to the acquisition of a vast property in Spain.
Vinnik’s dismissal from command was announced in late September while the battle for Vuhledar was still ongoing. The decision was officially presented as a promotion to a higher post that would allow him to “transfer combat experience.”
Vinnik was appointed commander of the 72nd Brigade in August 2022. Under his command, the brigade has defended Vuhledar for more than two years. Russian forces have been trying to capture the town since the start of the full-scale invasion in 2022.
“Thank you for the stability, strength, will, wisdom, and love for the staff! Good luck and victories on your new path, Colonel!” the unit told Vinnik in a message on Facebook.
Lawmaker and former member of the parliamentary defense committee Mariana Bezuhla criticized Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi over the change, saying Vinnik’s dismissal threatened the brigade’s combat effectiveness.
The central figure of many controversies, Bezuhla is known for inflammatory comments toward the Armed Forces that put her at odds with her fellow lawmakers and members of the military.
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Diplomacy Watch: Russia Capitalizing On Battlefield Surge
As Moscow mulls biggest war budget ever, Ukrainians appear increasingly open to negotiations
OCT 03, 2024
Russian President Vladimir Putin wants to increase the size of Russia’s military even while it’s seeing regular successes on the battlefield. These developments are leading some in the Ukrainian military and civilians alike to become more open to the idea of talks aimed at ending the war.
The Kremlin is currently negotiating a new military budget proposal of upwards of $145 billion which would mean that, if signed into law, Russia’s 2025 defense spending would grow to 32.5% of the budget, a 4.2% increase from this year’s spending.
This proposed increase coincides with the Kremlin’s recent announcement that it would revise the country’s nuclear doctrine, saying that Russia could respond to a conventional attack with nuclear weapons and that it would consider any attack that is supported by a nuclear power to be a “joint attack” — a policy presumably meant to deter at any Ukrainian attack inside Russian territory with U.S/Western weapons.
And even as the Russian military is increasingly seeing more successes on the battlefield, it’s about to increase in manpower. To support his previous order to add 180,000 troops to the military, Putin has called up 133,000 Russian men to serve as part of the autumn draft.
Meanwhile, it appears the Ukrainian military and public at large are growing war weary. The Financial Times reported this week that “Ukraine is heading into what may be its darkest moment of the war so far” in the face of increasing battlefield losses, its struggles to replenish military ranks, and the prospects of facing another winter with regular power and heating outages. “Society is exhausted,” said the Ukrainian parliament’s foreign affairs committee chair.
FT points out a poll conducted this summer by the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology for the National Democratic Institute which found that 57% of the public supported negotiations with the Kremlin, up from 33% the previous year. Additionally, 55% are opposed to a deal that would include ceding land to Russia, down from 87% last year.
FT also noted that according to KIIS polling, “making any deal acceptable that allows Russia to stay in the parts of Ukraine it has seized since its first invasion in 2014 will hinge on obtaining meaningful Western security guarantees, which for Kyiv means NATO membership.”
Diplomats engaging with Ukraine also report that Zelenskyy and other Ukrainian officials seem more open to peace talks. One diplomat said, “We’re talking more and more openly about how this ends and what Ukraine would have to give up in order to get a permanent peace deal.”
Reuters reports that China and Brazil, amongst others, compiled a peace plan to present to Ukraine and Russia last Friday. Seventeen countries met in New York during the last United Nations General Assembly meeting to discuss a potential end to the war, with China chairing the talks. Zelenskyy showed no interest in the peace plan, and questioned why they were drawing up alternative plants to his own.
Incoming NATO secretary-general says that the alliance will support Ukraine regardless of who wins in America’s November election. According to The Wall Street Journal, new Secretary-GeneralMark Rutte said, “I am absolutely convinced that on this issue, they both see what is necessary.” He added confidently that “supporting Ukraine is the right thing to do. And it is also an investment in our own security.”
In September 30th’s State Department Briefing;
State Department Spokesman Matthew Miller responded to a question regarding Ukraine’s ability to strike at Russian targets. Miller reiterated that Ukraine does not need permission to strike Russian targets with its own weapons. He also stated that the United States had given Kyiv permission to use some American weapons in a retaliatory fashion against targets in Russia.
He was pressed as to why Ukrainians are limited as to which American weapons they can use to strike targets in Russia. In his response he said, “We look at all of the capabilities and all the tactics and all the support that we provide Ukraine in totality, and look at how – when we approve any new weapon system or any new tactic, we look at how it’s going to affect the entire battlefield and Ukraine’s entire strategy. And that’s what we’ll continue to do.”
In this week’s October 2nd State Department Briefing;
A reporter asked Mr. Miller if Washington was ready to start implementing Ukraine’s proposed victory plan, to which he responded with, “We took that plan, we reviewed it, we saw a number of productive steps in it. We’re going to engage with them about it.”
Finally, Miller interacted with a question which compared US support of Israel during the recent Iranian missile strike to the support which Ukraine has received. He explained that the United States gives Ukraine the support needed to shoot down missiles, saying that “we have made clear that we support Ukraine’s right to defend itself not just in words but in deeds, and we have provided them with the equipment they need to shoot down missiles.”
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Bumpski
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It is a bit of a pity that there were no turrets to be tossed here!
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