Should have finished that bit with “I don’t make threats. I am the threat.”
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Russian losses per 13/10/24 reported by the Ukrainian General Staff.
+1300 men
+9 tanks
+49 AFVs
+29 artillery systems
+1 MLRS
+2 AD systems
+45 UAVs
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OPINION: Military Lessons for NATO from the Russia-Ukraine War
By examining Ukraine’s capacity for innovation under immense pressure, students of warfare can gain important insights into the fundamental transformation of modern conflict.
October 13, 2024, 8:50 am
A Ukrainian serviceman of the “Achilles” Battalion from the 92nd Brigade of the Ukrainian Army runs tests flights with a Vampire hexacopter drone ahead of missions, in the eastern Donetsk region on April 30, 2024, amid the Russian invasion of Ukraine. These drones are almost exclusively used at night to drop munitions on Russian targets or supplies and medical necessities to Ukrainian soldiers on the frontline. (Photo by Genya SAVILOV / AFP)
The Russia-Ukraine war has showcased Ukraine’s remarkable ability to resist a significantly more powerful adversary despite its limited resources. Ukraine’s defense efforts have combined innovative strategies, harnessing both domestic ingenuity and foreign support to counter a foe superior in military force and technology.
While certain aspects of warfare remain unchanged – such as the necessity of industrial capacity and raw firepower for entrenched battles – the war has prompted a re-evaluation of many traditional military concepts.
Ukraine has become a global testing ground for various weapons and technologies, offering valuable lessons on what works and what doesn’t. Drones, for example, have become indispensable, with both sides utilizing them to enhance their battlefield operations. This continuous adaptation and pursuit of technological breakthroughs drives the larger-scale evolution of warfare.
Although Ukraine heavily relied on Western aid during the early years of the war, it has increasingly recognized the need for self-reliance and homegrown innovation.
Ukraine continues to lead by example, maximizing its limited resources to counter Russia by leveraging asymmetrical warfare and pioneering drone innovations. Civilians have played a crucial role, building supply chains to sustain the war effort, while groups like the North Atlantic Fella Organization (NAFO) have fought Russia in the information war.
Meanwhile, Russia has not only waged a physical war against Ukraine but has also engaged in hybrid warfare, aimed at undermining Western support.
This war has expanded from cyber realms across Western countries to the physical battlefields of Ukraine. In response, decentralized efforts, such as Ukraine’s IT volunteer army, have emerged to conduct cyber warfare against Russia.
The lack of a clear plan for Ukraine’s battlefield victory has emboldened Russia, reinforcing its belief in achieving complete dominance. This has attracted greater support from adversaries like China, further fueling the conflict.
China’s and North Korea’s increasing involvement highlights the global nature of the war, with nation-states worldwide becoming invested in its outcome. In turn, Ukraine has begun taking the fight beyond its borders, targeting Russian interests in Africa and the Middle East.
As the Biden administration hesitates to provide Ukraine with the decisive support needed, Ukraine may resort to riskier strategies to break the stalemate and counter Russia’s war of attrition.
Artificial Intelligence (AI) is playing an increasingly significant role on the battlefield, enhancing drone targeting and allowing autonomous systems to have a greater impact. Over time, the battlefield is becoming a clash of algorithms.
As the world becomes more digitized, technology’s influence on warfare will only grow. Cheap drones have already transformed the battlefield, accelerating both sides’ need to adapt and develop new technological advancements.
Ultimately, the Russia-Ukraine war has highlighted the need for NATO countries to embrace and adapt to the technological advancements seen in Ukraine, many of which are emerging from off-the-shelf commercial technologies. NATO must prepare for the future of warfare, where the first large-scale drone war is rapidly transitioning into the first AI-driven war.
David Kirichenko is a researcher and expert specializing in autonomous systems, cyber warfare, irregular warfare, and military strategy. His analyses have been widely published in outlets such as the Atlantic Council, the Center for European Policy Analysis, the Irregular Warfare Center, Military Review, and The Hill, as well as in peer-reviewed journals. His work has been cited in publications like the Journal of Advanced Military Studies and by the Asymmetric Threat Analysis Center at the University of Maryland, among others.
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The race to out-produce the Russian economy, particularly arms manufacturing.
Ukraine boosting its defense industries, with a little help from friends
With Europe unable to supply all the weapons and ammunition Ukraine needs, the E.U. is investing in the country’s rapidly expanding arms industry.
A 155mm shell is produced in an artillery factory in Tarbes, France, to be used by Ukrainian armed forces. (Lionel Bonaventure/AFP/Getty Images)
October 13, 2024 at 1:00 a.m. EDT
KYIV — A recent decision by the European Union to contribute some $440 million to Ukraine’s resurgent arms industry marks a significant shift in the bloc’s approach to Russia’s war against its neighbor, but also highlights the E.U. defense sector’s shortcomings in producing weapons and ammunition.
The E.U. contribution will use money taken from the windfall profits of Russian assets that have been frozen in the West. The funding comes on top of some $190 million that the Danish government is providing.
While Europe, and of course the United States, have been sending billions of dollars’ worth of weapons to help Ukraine in its battle against much larger Russia, their national defense industries — long oriented toward an international scene with fewer conflicts — have struggled to keep up with Ukrainian demand.
“I think there’s a realization that Europe is not capable of producing the weapons that Ukraine needs and the easiest way is for the Ukrainians to do it themselves,” said a European diplomat speaking on the condition of anonymity because of the sensitivity of the issue. “If the Ukrainians have the materials and money, they can do it much quicker themselves.”
Investing in the Ukrainian arms sector “provides more flexibility” and “gets more capacity to Ukraine in short order,” said Ian Lesser, head of the Brussels office of the German Marshall Fund. It also “perhaps relieves some of the pressure on defense production in Western countries.”
But “it’s important to note that none of this is going to replace the large-scale provision of Western manufactured arms to Ukraine,” Lesser said. “That’s simply the reality of the security situation Ukraine finds itself in.”
"The broader point is the progressive integration of Ukraine into Western defense industrial supply chains,” he added.
European leaders have stepped up defense cooperation with Ukraine and sought to sustain funding for aid in the face of a grinding war, as they brace for the possibility of a second Trump presidency, waning U.S. support and public fatigue in some of their own countries.
Ukraine’s defense industry was not in the position to absorb large amounts of financing at the beginning of the war. But the country tripled its arms production in 2023, and then doubled that figure in the first eight months this year, Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal said last week at the International Defense Industries Forum dedicated to Ukraine’s defense industry.
This year, some $4 billion was allocated to the country’s arms industry, Defense Minister Rustem Umerov said. Still, Ukraine’s defense sector has the capacity to produce significantly more — to the tune of some $10-12 billion, Economy Minister Yulia Svyrydenko said.
The funding from Ukraine’s partners is “a watershed — not in terms of the amount of money, but the idea of investing government money in the Ukrainian defense industry,” said a European official, who also spoke on the condition of anonymity because of the sensitivity of the issue. The money would go to producing “missiles, drones” and other “deep-strike weapons,” he said.
Ukraine has been pushing hard for more long-range strike capability in its war against Russia and the United States has refused to allow the weapons it has provided be used in this manner for fear of antagonizing Russia. President Volodymyr Zelensky has said that the country is now developing its own ballistic missiles.
The money flowing to Ukraine’s defense industry could increase sharply soon, the official added. “There are a number of nations that are, as far as I know, close to announcing the future use of the same mechanism, either the investing themselves or asking Denmark to invest their money.”
Even with the injection of outside money, though, Ukraine’s weapons sector is still far from being able to rival Russia’s output, one of the world’s leading arms producers.
“Ukraine still requires considerable Western assistance for the next several years to defend against Russian aggression and liberate strategically vital areas that Russian forces currently occupy,” the D.C.-based Institute for the Study of War wrote in a report on Wednesday.
Some defense sectors are already experiencing massive growth. Ukraine is on track to manufacture some 1.5 million drones this year and had the capacity to make 2.5 million more, Zelensky said — an industry that was practically nonexistent before the war. The Netherlands also announced Sunday it was investing $440 million in advanced drone development for Ukraine.
By comparison, Russian President Vladimir Putin said last month that Russia would produce 1.4 million drones this year, up from 140,000 in 2023. The drones have become a key component in Ukraine and Russia’s arsenals, with the two sides employing them extensively along the front line and sending waves of them against each other’s military facilities and infrastructure.
Overall, however, Ukraine needs weapons and shells — fast. While Ukrainian forces have moved into Russia’s Kursk region, elsewhere they continue to cede territory. Last week, Ukrainian troops were forced to withdraw from the eastern city of Vuhledar, the result of a lack of personnel and equipment, as well as improved Russian tactics, soldiers said.
Denmark will manage the $630 million in Danish and E.U. funding through a “Danish model” — an arrangement, agreed upon in June, whereby Western money goes to pay for contracts that Ukraine’s Defense Ministry has already signed with arms producers, allowing Ukrainians to prioritize what is needed.
A Danish pilot project has also already produced 18 Ukrainian-made Bohdana 155mm howitzers — an important addition to Ukraine’s front-line battle, where it is severely outgunned by Russian forces.
There would be “no red lines from our side” restricting where the weapons could be used, said Dennis Virkelyst, who runs the Ukrainian team at the Danish Defense Ministry, speaking at the defense industry conference.
“Denmark and the European Union will be able to show the rest of the world how efficiently we spend Russian windfall profits, on weapons going right back deep into Russia,” he said.
The E.U. assistance is part of a larger $1.5 billion package taken from the proceeds of the Russian frozen assets, which was approved in May and is administered through the European Peace Facility that provides money for E.U. members to purchase weapons for Ukraine.
The E.U.’s executive arm in recent weeks announced a plan to loan Ukraine up to $38 billion, again backed by the windfall profits of the frozen Russian assets. The E.U. plan came about as a joint initiative with Washington and Group of Seven nations stalled. The workaround could see the bloc forge ahead initially without U.S. participation and help bypass the threat of a veto from Moscow-friendly Hungary, which has blocked assurances requested by U.S. officials.
In August, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said the use of frozen Russian assets and their profits was “theft.”
“These are illegal actions. They will definitely have legal consequences,” Peskov said during a briefing.
Ultimately, Ukrainian officials hope the country will become a major arms exporter once its own needs are satisfied.
Ukrainian defense firms signed a number of agreements with Western companies on the sidelines of the conference, allowing for the joint production of drones and ammunition and setting up repair shops for Western equipment.
Working with Ukrainian firms provides distinct advantages for foreign defense companies — such as the ability to modify and test one’s product in an active conflict.
Ukraine has already signed initial contracts with such major defense players as Germany’s Rheinmetall and the French-German arms group KNDS, which opened a Kyiv office last week. KNDS is one of a number of Western firms contracted to produce with Ukrainian industry NATO-standard 155mm shells, which are desperately needed on the front line and Ukraine now manufacturers itself, but in small quantities.
Umerov made a direct plea to international arms industry executives gathered at the conference to invest in the country. “We would be more than happy to make joint ventures with you, to co-invest with you, because we want to become … partners and allies of the free world.”
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2024/10/13/ukraine-defense-industry-denmark/
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It’s always nice to read of “scoundrels being eliminated.”
Ukrainian paratroopers eliminate Russian assault group in Kursk region
12.10.2024 20:00
Warriors from Ukraine’s 95th Separate Air Assault ‘Polissia’ Brigade eliminated a Russian assault group in a settlement within Russia’s Kursk region.
According to Ukrinform, this was reported on Telegram by the Ukrainian Air Assault Forces.
“These were scoundrels from the 155th Marine Brigade of the Pacific Fleet, who particularly enjoy flaunting their ‘exploits,’ including mistreatment of prisoners and shooting of the Ukrainian servicemen who, having no way out, surrendered. Prisoners are protected worldwide by the laws of war — the Geneva Conventions. However, the Russian forces disregard international humanitarian law, violating it grossly and cynically,” noted the Air Assault Forces.
However, the paratroopers emphasized that, when faced in battle with the Ukrainian troops, all the members of this Russian group were eliminated.
"This fate awaits other servicemen from this brigade as well,” the Air Assault Forces underscored.
As previously reported by Ukrinform, FPV drones from Ukraine’s Defense Intelligence targeted communications equipment, a building housing personnel, and a vehicle of the Russian forces in the village of Tyotkino in Kursk region.
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Bump!
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Good. Paybacks a ■■■■■
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Yes, “all the members of this particular group were eliminated.” Beeeeyoudifall.
I’m hoping it was done with all due prejudice.
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I shouldn’t, and hope it didn’t happen, but I’d like to think the murdering karnts were begging for forgiveness.
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Guessing it’s not an IKEA bed!
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Unlikely.
You live by the sword, you die by the sword.
Everyone, every person, every group is responsible for their own actions and controls their own destiny. The Russian 155th marine brigade of the Pacific fleet have undertaken certain actions and are now reaping the destiny that they’ve sown.
There’s obviosly more personnel of the 155th marine brigade than was present at this particular battle. The below article quote suggests that the 155th marine brigade may eventually only exist as a notation in the war history journals.
"This (elimanation) fate awaits other servicemen from this (155th marine) brigade as well,” the (Ukranian) Air Assault Forces underscored.
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Putin’s overheated economy: When will Russia run out of money for war?
12/10/2024 - 22:54
Vladimir Putin at a pro-government rally / Татар-Информ
Vladimir Putin’s hope that time is on Russia’s side and that the war in Ukraine is only draining the country’s resources may turn out to be a disaster for the Kremlin. Even though a record 13.5 trillion Russian rubles have been allocated for military spending in 2025.
Ukrainian publication hromadske explains how long Russia can go to war and whether we should expect its economy to implode any time soon.
Russia’s military economy
In September, the head of Ukraine’s Main Intelligence Directorate, Kyrylo Budanov, said that from the summer of 2025, serious economic problems will make the Kremlin think about ending the war. Citing intelligence data, Budanov said that Moscow aims to end the war with its victory before 2026 due to unfavorable socio-political and financial-economic factors. That’s because spending on the war is rising, revenues are falling, and the budget deficit is growing.
In 2025, “defense and security” - and thus the war against Ukraine - will account for 41% of Russian budget expenditures. This is 25% more than in the current year. At the same time, Russia’s draft budget for the next three years does not include any increase in oil and gas revenues, which make up the lion’s share of the budget.
Due to disproportionate spending on the war, the budget deficit is growing significantly. In 2024, it will amount to 3.3 trillion rubles (about $34 billion). To continue its aggression against Ukraine, the Russian government is cutting spending on social welfare, health care, education, and science.
Ukraine also spends a huge amount of money on defense, about $100 billion a year. Half of this comes from its own budget. The other half comes from weapons supplied by Western partners.
According to Swedish economist Anders Aslund, Ukraine could win the war if it had an extra $50 billion a year, as well as permission from Western partners to strike military installations inside Russia with long-range weapons.
“The West can provide the necessary amount using $300 billion in frozen Russian state assets. This money is crucial for Ukraine’s ability to resist the aggressor and restore its territorial integrity,” the economist said.
A girl looks at a crater caused by an explosion in front of an apartment building in Kyiv, February 25, 2022 / Skiba for The Globe and Mail
Back in USSR
Currently, the military-industrial complex is the only sector of the Russian economy that is growing. This imbalance leads to higher inflation rates and creates an “overheated economy” effect. To keep inflation under control, the Central Bank of Russia has raised interest rates twice this year alone. In July - from 16% to 18%, in September - to 19%. By comparison, the key interest rate in Ukraine is 13%.
The current inflation rate in Russia is 9.1%, and according to Anders Aslund, the real inflation in this country is much higher. This is what happened in the Soviet Union, where the authorities disguised inflation as real economic growth, which in fact did not exist.
Cumulative effect of sanctions
Russia’s hidden inflation also shows that Western financial sanctions are much more effective than many observers believe. Russia is unable to borrow abroad and has to live solely on taxes and reserves. In addition, half of its foreign currency reserves are frozen in Western countries.
“In 2021, the National Welfare Fund was at its peak with $183 billion in its accounts. By March 2024, the liquid reserves of Russia’s sovereign wealth fund had shrunk to $55 billion, or 2.8 percent of GDP. Most of these funds are already invested and not liquid,” Anders Aslund notes.
With a GDP of $1.9 trillion, Russia is spending about $40 billion a year to cover its budget deficit, which means its state reserves will run out next year, Aslund predicts. Although Russia is raising taxes on personal and corporate income, that’s unlikely to help in a stagnant economy, and the government can’t sell many bonds on the domestic market, the Swedish economist said.
“As the third anniversary of the war of aggression against Ukraine approaches, the financial, technological and demographic obstacles facing the Russian economy are more serious than is generally believed. Despite the Kremlin’s attempts to convince the world that it is in control, time is not on Russia’s side,” Aslund notes.
Moreover, Russia continues to find ways around Western sanctions by importing Western goods through Central Asian countries, Turkey and China. Moscow also manages to evade trade restrictions on its oil, which is shipped to China and India via a shadow fleet.
Ukrainian soldiers near Kyiv during the withdrawal of Russian troops in April 2022 / Vadim Girda, AP
Vaccinating the Russian economy
Although sanctions are making life difficult for the Kremlin, economic cooperation with China, India, and the Global South is keeping Russia afloat. Western sanctions could have been more effective if they had been imposed all at once rather than gradually, economic expert Alexander Parashchy noted in a conversation with hromadske.
“If it were possible to completely isolate Russia, if no one would buy its oil or supply it with weapons and technology, this story would probably end quickly. Unfortunately, sanctions are imposed gradually, and that’s why Russia becomes immune to them very quickly. The gradual introduction of sanctions immunizes the Russian economy,” the expert believes.
Despite the sanctions, the Russian military-industrial complex continues to increase the production of drones and missiles, which have many imported components. Moreover, 95 percent of all parts found in Russian weapons on the battlefield come from Western producing countries that provide military aid to Ukraine.
The West should tighten control over its exports, says Oleksandr Parashchyy. Although loopholes that allow sanctions to be bypassed are being closed, new ones are being found. Nevertheless, it is becoming increasingly difficult for Russia to get the goods it wants.
However, do not expect that the economic collapse will destroy Russia or stop the war against Ukraine, says in a commentary journalist Vitaly Portnikov.
“Economic collapse and disintegration in Russia is possible, but the question is - when? It was clear to everyone that the USSR’s invasion of Afghanistan would have disastrous consequences. But the war lasted nine years,” Portnikov recalls. "In 1988, the Soviet Union withdrew its troops from Afghanistan. But after the war ended, the USSR continued to exist for another three years. Therefore, Ukraine should think about security guarantees, not about the problems of the Russian economy.
If Western support is not weakened, Vladimir Putin’s calculations that Russia is capable of winning a war of attrition may prove false.
https://euroradio.fm/en/putins-overheated-economy-when-will-russia-run-out-money-war
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Ukrainian soldier who lost both legs in war is in Australia for a life-changing surgery | 7NEWS
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Well, he does not brag about his overwhelming power. Follows the lead of the BB mods.
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Ban worthy Albert… Warning. Thin ice.
Wot? That was praise of our hard-working mods, who are both noble and judicious.
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Yes, but you mentioned the overwhelming power.
You know the rules of ‘The Fight Club’.
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Gave it a like for just trying to imagine how much tongue can fit in a cheek. 
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Not the best of news, but not unexpected. I hope the Ukrainians make the orcs pay dearly for every meter they gain.
Ukraine Withdrawing From ‘Dire’ Situation in Toretsk: Russia
Published Oct 13, 2024 at 5:33 AM EDTUpdated Oct 13, 2024 at 5:34 AM EDT
Ukrainian troops have started a “partial withdrawal” from the key city of Toretsk, Russian state media reported on Sunday, as heavy street battles rage on in the eastern settlement.
The situation is “very dire” for Ukrainian forces in Toretsk," Russian state news agency Tass reported on Sunday, citing a security source. “Currently, we are seeing a partial withdrawal of units from the city.”
Newsweek has reached out to the Ukrainian military and the Russian Ministry of Defense via email for comment.
The Donetsk city of Toretsk sits north of Avdiivka, the former Ukrainian stronghold which Russia captured in February, and southwest of Bakhmut, which fell to Moscow’s forces in May 2023.
Russia has been slowly but surely advancing westward in Donetsk throughout the year, one of two regions making up the Donbas that have consistently been a focus for destructive assaults by Moscow’s forces.
Soldiers fire a 2C1 “Carnation” self-propelled gun on July 31, 2024, in Toretsk district, Ukraine. The situation is “very dire” for Ukrainian forces in Toretsk," Russian state news agency Tass reported on Sunday, citing a… More Vlada Liberova /Libkos/Getty Images
Fighting has been heavy around Toretsk, as well as west of Avdiivka as Moscow plugs away with efforts to reach the strategic Ukrainian logistics and transport hub of Pokrovsk. The Kremlin has simultaneously concentrated resources west of Bakhmut in a long-running campaign to capture the town of Chasiv Yar.
On Monday, a spokesperson for Ukraine’s Luhansk group of forces operating in the east, Major Anastasiya Bobovnikova, said that fighting was taking place at “literally every entrance” to the city.
The head of Ukraine’s military administration for Toretsk, Vasily Chynchyk, said on Friday that Russia had seized between 50 and 60 percent of the city.
“The enemy is trying and making every effort to completely capture the city in the shortest possible time, but the Ukrainian Armed Forces are giving a worthy rebuff and holding their positions as much as possible,” Chynchyk said.
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It’s a little difficult to ascertain if this report is true, or just rumour. I’ve always been of the opinion that Germany were unenthusiastic allies to Ukraine, so although disappointed in the news, it’s not unexpected.
Germany halts supply of heavy combat vehicles to Ukraine
Oct 13, 2024
Germany will no longer provide heavy combat vehicles to Ukraine, according to reports from the German newspaper Bild, which cites an internal document from the German Ministry of Defense.
The transfer of such equipment, which included Leopard 2 tanks, Marder infantry fighting vehicles (IFVs), and Panzerhaubitze 2000 (PzH 2000) howitzers, has reportedly been completed.
According to Bild, the German Ministry of Defense does not believe Ukraine will be able to conduct a successful counteroffensive in the near future, despite Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s efforts to continue pushing against Russian forces. This perspective comes at a critical time, as Ukraine’s counteroffensive, which began in the summer of 2023, has faced significant challenges, with progress slower than initially hoped.
Editor’s Note: The BILD article reported solely on heavy vehicles from Bundeswehr stocks.
In the autumn of 2023, Zelenskyy acknowledged the difficulties of the counteroffensive, and Russian officials declared it a failure. The decision from Berlin not to provide additional heavy equipment, including the much-needed Leopard 2 tanks, suggests a shift in Germany’s defense policy toward the Russian war in Ukraine.
While Germany has announced new aid packages for Ukraine, Bild reports that these announcements primarily reflect previously promised deliveries, rather than fresh commitments of military hardware. This revelation may dampen expectations in Kyiv, where officials have continually sought increased military support from Western allies to maintain momentum on the battlefield.
Zelenskyy reportedly asked German Chancellor Olaf Scholz for permission to launch strikes against Russia using Western-supplied weapons and requested assurances for a swift accession to NATO. However, according to the report, Scholz did not provide a direct response to these requests.
The shift in Germany’s stance could have broader implications for NATO’s support to Ukraine.
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