Russia invades Ukraine - 6 - from 7 August 2024

General Gibberish Forums The nickyd News Room
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I missed a bit between the last thread and this one, when did the Kursk incursion start? Seems an exciting new development.

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And Putin remains a strategic genius.

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Seems like yesterday.

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First reported this morning in the old thread.

Do try to keep up :wink:

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“The Russians are now referring to this as an “invasion”.”

Farken invasion my ar$e.
Everyone knows this is nothing more than a ‘special operation’.

When the Ukrainians push through and take Murmansk to the north, and Vladivostok to the east, then we might consider renaming it to something like ‘enlarged special operation’.

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Apologies good sir!

Slava Ukraine, Fark Russia (and Carlton) you Fascist pigs!

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No worries. Happy to perform a community service supporting those Blitzers who get the news onto this site long before it ever reaches the MSM.

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Russians check Sevastopol coast after destroying Rostov-on-Don submarine - partisans

Partisans recorded a visit by the occupiers to inspect the coast of Sevastopol after the destruction of the Russian submarine Rostov-on-Don by the Ukrainian Defence Forces.

This was reported by the ATESH guerrilla movement in Telegram, Ukrinform reports.

“ATESH recorded a visit to check the coast of Sevastopol after the destruction of the Rostov-on-Don submarine. Our agent detected the arrival of a helicopter to Cape Chersonese. After reconnaissance, he recorded the disembarkation of important guests, who boarded a boat and headed towards Kilen Bay,” the statement said.

The Russians’ visit was aimed at finding those responsible for the submarine’s destruction and trying to understand how to prevent future attacks, ATESH added.

I’d suggest looking across the frontline trenches to find those most responsible, and if they’re looking for the best way to prevent future attacks… Pack up and leave and don’t let the door hit ya on the ar$e on your way out.

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Some more info on the looming Russian rail crisis. And how important is rail to Russia? JSC Russian Railways has a near-monopoly on long-distance train travel in Russia, with a 98.6% market share in 2017.[3]

Russian Railway Networks Facing ‘Imminent Collapse’: Report

Published Aug 06, 2024 at 4:29 AM EDTUpdated Aug 06, 2024 at 8:38 AM EDT

The state-owned Russian Railways faces “imminent collapse” amid a shortage of locomotives, driven by Western-imposed sanctions imposed over the war in Ukraine, a Russian Telegram channel has reported.

The sanctions have contributed to a ball-bearing shortage in Russia, which has affected locomotive maintenance in the country. This has led to a rise in malfunctions on the network’s trains and an increase in the number of vehicles being suspended, Russian newspapers Vedomosti and Kommersant reported in February and March this year.

The VChK-OGPU outlet, which is widely believed to have ties to Russian security agencies, reported Monday, citing an unnamed source, that the railway network’s deputy head Sergei Kobzev told his subordinates at an internal meeting “that the situation is critical.”

“The complete collapse of the entire railroad network in the country could happen in days,” the channel said. “[Russian Railways] chiefs have been ordered to work to the point of exhaustion. Those who fail to cope are threatened with dismissal and ‘execution.’ This is the motivation.”

Russia’s Justice Ministry added VChK-OGPU to its “foreign agents” register earlier this month for “dissemination of false information aimed at creating a negative image of the Russian army.”

Igor Sushko is a Ukrainian military blogger and the executive director of the Wind of Change Research Group. He shared what he alleged was a leaked audio clip of a meeting between Kobzev and his subordinates, in which he says that the “Russian rail network is on the precipice of total collapse.”

“We are together making plans; we are four days away from a complete shutdown of the [rail] network,” Kobzev allegedly said.

“There is no longer such thing as ‘this is my rail segment;’ there is nothing. We’ve entered a zone in which either you perform the task precisely, and it is checked in an hour or two whether you completed the task, and we readjust our approach with a different attitude, and we recover to a normal state, and only then you can discuss which are ‘your segments’, OR [the work] will be completed by other people, and swiftly and reliably to boot,” the deputy head of Russian Railways said in the meeting, according to the audio clip.

Kobzev added: “I promise you that we will be working hard during the holidays, and we will have a holiday, quite literally, with tears in our eyes.”

Newsweek was unable to independently verify the authenticity of the audio clip or VChK-OGPU’s report, and has contacted Russia’s Foreign Ministry for comment by email.

Russian Railways in 2023 reported that the number of trains suspended due to issues with its trains more than doubled to 42,600 amid a shortage of critical parts. This was due to “insufficient maintenance of the locomotive fleet,” Kommersant reported in March.

A Russian Railways spokesperson told Vedomosti in February that the issue “became especially acute” in the final quarter of 2023.

Analysts at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) in Washington, D.C., said in April 2023 that a ball-bearing shortage in Russia was having a knock-on effect on the production of vehicles.

Swedish bearing manufacturer SKF Group ceased all business and operations in Russia in response to the war in Ukraine in April 2022. It had operated in the country since 1991.

“Historically, Russia has imported most of its high-quality bearings from Western manufacturers,” CSIS analysts said. "In 2020, for instance, Russia imported over $419 million worth of ball bearings, around 55 percent of which originated in Europe and North America; Germany was Russia’s largest trading partner, taking up 17 percent of its total imports that year.

“Following the start of the invasion, major Western producers of bearings exited Russia and ended their sales there,” the analysts said.

Western sanctions have created shortages of higher-end foreign components and are forcing Moscow to substitute them with lower-quality alternatives.

“For now, Moscow’s efforts at state-backed import substitution remain largely unsuccessful,” the analysts added.

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Surely China makes suitable bearings.
Perhaps they are the low quality replacements mentioned.

I am surprised their commercial aircraft are still in service. China helping out here again I imagine.

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Ahh, smell the hypocrisy.

Putin accuses Ukraine of “major provocation” following Kursk incursion

Russian President Vladimir Putin has accused Ukraine of a “major provocation” following an incursion into the Kursk region.

Spelling to members of the Russian government about the Kursk attack, Putin said the “Kyiv regime has launched another major provocation”.

He further accused Ukrainian forces of the “indiscriminate shelling of civilian” targets in the Kursk region.

The Russian Defence Ministry claimed that up to 300 Ukrainian soldiers entered Russian territory in the Kursk region, which borders Ukraine’s northeastern Sumy region.

Abandoned armoured vehicles were found in geolocated footage by US-based Institute for the Study of War, while Russia released images which they said showed the shelling of Ukrainian vehicles which were part of the incursion.

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Maybe a day or two. It’s an awkward one, Ukraine is very stretched in the Avdiivka area, losing a village every few days due to lack of infantry. The theory is that taking a small amount of territory will strengthen that sector, making it easier to defend and cripple Russian logistics. That would allow more troops to be pushed south, which seems to have happened.

Time will tell if this is a good idea. What I can say is it’s an extreme risk.

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Reportedly, Ukraine is unimpeded in its grain and oilseed exports via the Black Sea. However, as yet, shipments are mainly via Romanian and Bulgarian ports ( transferred by land). Some go inland to Atlantic ports.
These are at a higher cost than shipments from Ukraine’s own Black Sea ports around Odessa.
I assume that land transport of grains to those ports, or that cargo shipments from those ports could be vulnerable to attack from Russian missiles in the Russian occupied territories.

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More of a case of patching aircraft together and cannibalising aircraft to cobble together a fleet.

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Thanks for posting this. It reminded me of a post very early in the first incarnation of this thread that predicted ball bearing shortages would be a critical shortcoming for the Russians. [It may have been someone reporting Trent Trelenko but this has now been lost in the mists of time].

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No surprise that Niger has also broken off diplomatic relations with Ukraine and that it intends to raise what it describes as Ukraine aggression at the UNSC.
Earlier this year, Russian military trainers arrived in Niger.

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I’m unsure if this would stop a well directed HIMARS or not… Probably not.

Russia building one more bridge near Crimean Bridge - social media

image

The Russians are building one more bridge near the Kerch Strait Bridge in temporarily occupied Crimea.

That is according to the Telegram channel Crimean Wind, Ukrinform reports.

“‘Our eyes’ can see everything: the construction of defensive structures is underway near the Kerch Bridge. Another bridge is being built along the main structure, with piles being driven,” the post reads.

The channel added that construction is also underway on a section from the bridge’s arch spans to Kuban.

Ukrinform reported earlier that in temporarily occupied Crimea, the invaders continued to build fortifications near the Kerch Strait Bridge, with two floating cranes already working there.

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When looking at the decline of anything in the Russian economy, think a combination of conscription, skilled labour exodus overseas, wage inflation in military industries stealing manpower, sanctions causing material shortages and/or cost increases, corruption, incompetence, bad luck and misreporting by uninformed foreigners.

Extremely unlikely that a single factor is at the root of any real life problem, but a combination of that list is to blame for almost everything in Russia right now. The question is how bad is it really.

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Let’s hope Russia also sends about 600 aircraft and the Israelis and Yanks shoot 'em up.

Iran asks Russia for air defenses to prepare for potential war with Israel, NYT reports

Iran has requested modern air defense systems from Russia as it prepares for a possible war with Israel, with deliveries already underway, the New York Times (NYT) reports on Aug. 5, citing undisclosed Iranian officials.

Russia’s National Security Council Secretary and former Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu visited Tehran on Aug. 5 as the country allegedly prepares to retaliate against Israel for the assassination of Hamas political leader Ismail Haniyeh on Iranian soil on July 31.

Shoigu met with Iran’s new president, Masoud Pezeshkian, the commander of the Iranian Armed Forces, Brigadier General Mohammad Bagheri, who is leading the planning of military strikes against Israel, and the secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council.

Two Iranian officials familiar with the war planning, one of whom is a member of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, confirmed to NYT that Iran has asked Russia for air defense equipment.

Russia has begun supplying modern radars and air defense equipment, according to the Iranian officials who spoke on the conditions of anonymity.

Iranian state television showed Shoigu and Bagheri greeting each other, meeting face-to-face, and then participating in a larger meeting at the negotiating table with members of the Russian delegation and Iranian military officials.

“We are ready for full cooperation with Iran on regional issues,” Shoigu reportedly said.

Bagheri also told Shoigu that the relationship between their nations was “deep, long-term, and strategic” and would only expand under Iran’s new government, according to Iranian state media.

Iran is one of Russia’s closest allies on the international stage. The two countries have only deepened their military and political cooperation since the start of the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.

Notably, Iran has provided Russia with thousands of Shahed kamikaze drones since the start of the all-out war. In February, Reuters also reported that Tehran sent “a large number of powerful surface-to-surface ballistic missiles” to aid Moscow’s invasion.

Russia also has economic and cultural ties with Israel, as a large number of Russian Jews live there. But Moscow cannot afford to refuse to help Tehran because it relies heavily on Iranian drones in Ukraine, NYT said.

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The Kursk raid (?) is towards the city of Sudzha, which is where the metering station is for the gas pipeline supplying Slovakia and Hungary. Ukraine has kept this line running all through the war.

Shame if Russia accidentally bombed their own pipeline…

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