Russia invades Ukraine - 6 - from 7 August 2024

Fighting To Save Pokrovsk And Hundreds Of Vulnerable Ukrainian Troops, A Ukrainian Tank Blasted a Russian Vehicle From A Few Feet Away

The skirmish in Selydove was brutal and costly—for the Russians

Updated Sep 4, 2024, 05:56pm EDT

Potentially hundreds of Ukrainian troops from four brigades are holding a vulnerable salient south of Pokrovsk, a Ukrainian stronghold that sits astride critical supply lines in Donetsk Oblast in eastern Ukraine.

For days, some experts have been advising the Ukrainians in the salient—30 square miles stretching between the village of Ukrainsk and the Vovcha River to the east—to retreat in order to avoid getting surrounded, cut off and destroyed by a Russian force with a fourfold advantage in troops and equipment.

But the Ukrainians in the salient aren’t quite ready to quit. On Wednesday, they fought—and won—a brutal skirmish at a key road and rail intersection between the salient and the main Ukrainian sector to the north.

The fight developed when at least two Russian vehicles, seemingly including a BTR wheeled armored personnel carrier and an MT-LB armored tractor, raced along the main east-west road into Selydove, a Ukrainian-held settlement that anchors the front line between Pokrovsk and Ukrainsk.

It’s obvious why the Russian central grouping of forces wants to infiltrate Selydove—and equally obvious why the Ukrainians are determined to hold fast in the town. As long as the Ukrainians hold out in the salient to the south, they pose a threat to the left flank of the Russian 2nd Combined Arms Army and 90th Tank Division—the main units within the local Russian grouping of forces—as they roll toward Pokrovsk.

"Over the past week, the command of the center [grouping], especially the 2nd Army and 90th Tank Division, have shifted their main focus from directly targeting Pokrovsk to pushing towards Selydove and the surrounding areas to the east and southeast,” the Ukrainian Center for Defense Strategies reported on Sunday. “If they succeed, it will allow them to advance further on Pokrovsk and secure the left flank of the forces moving in from the south.”

The Ukrainians are trying to ensure the Russians don’t succeed—and are apparently fighting to preserve the salient south of Pokrovsk in order to maintain the threat to the Russians’ left flank. As those Russian vehicles rolled into the eastern edge of Selydove on Wednesday, a Ukrainian drone spotted them, and a Ukrainian tank—likely a T-64 from the recently deployed Kara-Dag brigade of the Ukrainian national guard—moved to intercept from the west.

The BTR managed to disembark a squad of a dozen or so infantry in what the crew must have believed was a safe position: the road underpass beneath the local north-south railway. But the infantry were still huddled next to the BTR when the Ukrainian tank hit the vehicle with a 125-millimeter cannon round, damaging the BTR and apparently wounding or killing some of the infantry.

The damaged BTR soon had company: what may have been an MT-LB. But the MT-LB took a hit, too—and was on fire as the Ukrainian tank crawled up to the underpass.

The Ukrainians clearly aren’t willing to lose the roads and rails connecting Pokrovsk to Selydove to Ukrainsk and to the adjacent salient—not as long as they’re still actively fighting for Pokrovsk and not just planning their retreat. So the three-person crew of that T-64 hit the burning MT-LB at point-blank range with another 125-millimeter round—and then proceeded to shove the flaming wreckage clear of the overhead rail bridge.

The outcome was clear. The Russian assault failed with heavy losses in people and equipment. And for the moment, at least, the Ukrainian positions were intact and the roads connecting them were clear. For now, Pokrovsk holds—and so does the salient to the south.

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Gosh, the ecological impact of this war on Ukraine will be long lasting.

Not discounting the human cost at all….

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Civilians outside the cities are doing it particularly tough
An interagency team coordinated by the UN delivered trucks of aid to Beryskav in the Kherson region, where 2000 have not evacuated, including 70 children and 90 people with limited mobility. They have no electricity, gas or water because of the shelling.
The Ukraine Government has advised the UN that it has launched mandatory evacuation of children and their caregivers from a further 40 towns and villages in the Donetsk region.

If it proves to be true, hanging is too good for them.

Russian troops apparently kill surrendering Ukrainian soldiers near Pokrovsk, CNN reports

September 6, 2024 2:00 PM

Russian forces seem to have gunned down a group of surrendering Ukrainian soldiers near Pokrovsk in late August, CNN reported on Sept. 6, publishing an exclusive video.

This comes as another apparent case of Russia summarily executing Ukrainian prisoners of war (POW) or surrendering soldiers, which could amount to war crimes.

Drone footage published by CNN shows three Ukrainian soldiers surrendering after their trench was overrun. As they walk out, kneel down, and place their hands on their heads, they seem to be gunned down as they fall to the ground.

Ukraine’s Prosecutor General Andrii Kostin told the U.S. news outlet that his office is investigating 28 similar incidents recorded during the full-scale war, which have resulted in the deaths of 62 Ukrainian soldiers.

“If prisoners of war surrender, if they show they surrender, if they are without weapons in their hands, then summary execution is a war crime,” Kostin said.

An undisclosed Ukrainain official told CNN that such cases are becoming an increasingly common pattern.

Petro Yatsenko, a representative of the Ukrainian Coordination Center for the Treatment of POWs, told CNN that Russian soldiers are ordered to summarily execute their Ukrainian counterparts so they would fear the same fate if they surrendered.

The battles near Pokrovsk, a key logistics hub in Donetsk Oblast, have been particularly brutal as Russia inches toward this important town. Kyiv has acknowledged a difficult situation in the sector, with the relentless assault continuing despite Ukraine’s attempt to divert Moscow’s forces by attacking Russia’s Kursk Oblast.

In a similar case reported this week, Russia executed three Ukrainian POWs near Toretsk, a town northeast of Pokrovsk, according to Ukrainian prosecutors.

Prosecutor General Andrii Kostin said in June that Russian commanders had given orders “not to capture Ukrainian servicemen, but instead to kill them with inhuman cruelty.” He made the statement after footage was revealed that showed a Ukrainian soldier beheaded by Russian troops.

“This is terrible barbarism that has no place in the 21st century,” Kostin said at the time.

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That is too sad to give a like to the post.

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Thanks for posting these stats every day. But instead of a “count up” is there a “count down” version? That is, at she start of the war that is only a SMO, how many tanks, AFVs, artillery pieces, MLRS, AD systems was it estimated that Russia had?

We have heard the tank inventory is being drained but what about the other categories? Does anyone know how close are they to relying on factory replacements?

For a start there was a couple of weeks ago a short article and picture of RU pulling a WW2 vintage howitzer out of mothballs and pressing it into service.

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If true, I wonder if Girkin is going to be reinstated as a Colonel or sent straight into a meat wave. Would be poetic justice if a Dutch F-16 targeted his position with an AASM.

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Fingers crossed he gets a warm welcome…

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I have a bad feeling that what’s happening in the east of Ukraine is not going well, and a breakthrough is imminent.

I hope I am wrong……

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Things are bad for Ukraine on this sector of the front. An upside is that many commentators see the drive on Pokrovsk as the culmination of the russian summer offensive of 2024. I don’t know. But If we take a longer view then this is really another one of the ebbs and flows of this war. Even if russia gains the upper hand in this part of the front and breaks through, there is only so far they can go before they reach Pokrovsk itself and the urban fight that awaits them. It may take them six months to take the city (level it to dust).

Update

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Putin continues stimulating Thales’ bottom line…

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300 Bradleys would be better

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ADD: Canada chips in

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Disgusting. More videos appearing of russian units executing surrendered soldiers, committing war crimes. Also more videos of Ukrainian drones raining ungodly fire on russian positions and the aftermath.

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In advance of the Ramstein meet, the UK announces the supply of 60 lightweight missiles, Germany a few howitzers; in both cases to be delivered by the end of the year. Austin also announces more military funding to be released by Biden. The EU announces more funding for civilian assistance.
Meanwhile, Zelensky seeks a decision to allow for longer range missiles as necessary for Ukraine’s defence and to recover territory. Ukraine doesn’t have the US iron clad guarantees afforded to Israel and the Phillipines.

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Henry Kissinger was right about one thing…

"It may be dangerous to be America’s enemy, but to be America’s friend is fatal.”

Ukraine long-range strikes into Russia won’t be a game changer, U.S. says

September 7, 20247:21 AM GMT+8Updated an hour ago

  • Summary

  • Pentagon chief says no one capability will change war

  • Zelenskiy urges allies to make good on air defence pledges

  • Zelenskiy says Russia needs to feel pressure to end war

  • US announces $250 million more in security assistance

RAMSTEIN AIR BASE, Germany, Sept 6 (Reuters) - U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin cautioned on Friday there was “no one capability” that would turn the war in Ukraine in Kyiv’s favour after President Volodymyr Zelenskiy urged the West to let his forces use its long-range weapons to strike Russia.

At a regular meeting of Ukraine’s allies at Ramstein U.S. Air Base in Germany, Zelenskiy repeated his plea for Western nations to supply more long-range missiles and lift restrictions on using them to hit targets such as airfields inside Russia.

Austin said Washington and its allies would continue to give strong support to Ukraine in fighting Russia’s invasion, announcing another $250 million in U.S. security assistance.

But, questioned by reporters, the Pentagon chief pushed back on the idea that allowing deep strikes inside Russia with Western weapons would be a game-changer.

He said Russia had already moved aircraft that launch glide bombs into Ukraine beyond the range of U.S.-supplied ATACM missiles.

“There’s no one capability that will in and of itself be decisive in this campaign,” Austin told reporters at the end of the meeting.

He also said Ukraine had capabilities of its own - such as drones - to hit targets inside Russia that were beyond the reach of ATACM and British-supplied Storm Shadow missiles.

“There are a lot of targets in Russia - big country, obviously,” Austin said. “And there’s a lot of capability that Ukraine has in terms of UAVs (unmanned aerial vehicles) and other things to address those targets.”

Among other donations, Germany pledged to supply an additional 12 self-propelled howitzers to Kyiv, while Canada said it planned to send 80,840 surplus small unarmed air-to-surface rockets as well as 1,300 warheads in the coming months.

Zelenskiy made his first appearance at a Ramstein meeting at an important moment in the 2-1/2-year-old war.

Ukrainian forces have made a surprise offensive into Russia’s Kursk region even as Russian forces focus on seizing the city of Pokrovsk in eastern Ukraine, a logistics hub for Kyiv’s war effort.

We need to have this long-range capability not only on the occupied territory of Ukraine, but also on Russian territory, yes, so that Russia is motivated to seek peace," Zelenskiy said, in remarks that drew support from countries including Baltic nations Lithuania and Estonia.

‘RED LINES’

Zelenskiy has long pushed back against allies who have supplied long-range weapons but told Kyiv they cannot use them deep inside Russia for fear of instigating a direct conflict between the West and Russia’s President Vladimir Putin.

In his remarks on Friday at Ramstein, Zelenskiy said: “Russia’s attempts to draw red lines simply do not work.”

The talks in Germany came as Americans prepare for a November presidential election that could have major implications for Ukraine. Vice President Kamala Harris, the Democratic candidate, has promised to stand with Ukraine.

Former President Donald Trump, the Republican candidate, has vowed to resolve the Ukraine war immediately on taking office with possible peace talks that might require Kyiv to cede territory. Trump and many of his supporters are skeptical of the billions of dollars in aid Biden’s administration has poured into Ukraine’s war effort.

At Ramstein, Austin gave statistics on the toll the war has taken on Russian forces, estimating more than 350,000 Russian troops have been killed or wounded. He said Ukrainian forces have sunk, destroyed, or damaged 32 Russian Navy vessels and pushed Russia’s Black Sea Fleet further east.

Zelenskiy said that about 6,000 Russian soldiers had been killed or wounded in Ukraine’s Kursk offensive.

“Today we control an area of more than 1,300 square kilometres in the Kursk region and this includes 100 settlements,” Zelenskiy said, adding that a large part of that territory was abandoned by Russian troops.

But Moscow has also been pounding cities across Ukraine with missiles and drones in some of its largest attacks since its invasion of Ukraine in February 2022,

“The number of air defence systems that have not yet been delivered is significant,” Zelenskiy said.

https://www.reuters.com/world/biden-sign-250-million-ukraine-security-assistance-2024-09-06/

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At least the USA has ramped up ammo production. No doubt because the Ukrainian war has brought home the realities of a modern war technology stalemate, causing the fallback to trench warfare along with artillery bombardment.

Pentagon Says $5 Billion Invested in Ammunition Amid Ukraine War

(Bloomberg) – The Pentagon has invested $5.3 billion of congressionally appropriated money since Russia’s February 2022 invasion of Ukraine to boost US-produced munitions for the besieged nation and replenish stockpiles, mostly for the Army, according to new figures released Friday.

American industry was making only 14,000 155mm shells a month when the invasion began, but has just hit the 40,000 mark, the Defense Department said in a statement Friday summarizing its efforts, which also coincides with the latest Ukraine Defense Contact Group meeting this week. That represents a 178% increase — on a path to producing 100,000 a month by the end of 2025, it said.

The US and its European allies have been racing to escalate production of armaments like ammunition and missiles after years of letting production languish as they weren’t a priority in Middle East operations.

Ukraine, like Russia, has burned through artillery ammunition, forcing allies to heighten manufacturing both to supply Ukraine and restore their own stocks for potential future conflicts.

The defense industry has responded in a variety of ways. For instance, Lockheed Martin Corp’s production of GMLRS rockets used by Ukraine to pummel Russian targets has increased 40% from 833 per month to 1,167. Monthly production of HIMARs missile launch vehicles has increased 60% from five to eight.

Earlier: Zelenskiy in Germany Urges Allies to Speed Up Weapons Deliveries

Lockheed Martin has also achieved a 100% increase in monthly production of its advanced Patriot PAC-3 “MSE” air defense weapon from 21 per month to 42 per month.

Lockheed’s joint venture with RTX Corp. has increased production of the Javelin anti-armor weapon 14% to 200 units per month from 175, the Pentagon said in the statement.

Other companies have forged partnerships with Ukraine. Northrop Grumman now has a contract with Ukraine’s government to set up a “medium-caliber ammunition production line.”

All told, the Defense Department said, the US has provided more than $55.5 billion since the invasion started.

The Pentagon released the data as Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy made his first in-person appearance at a meeting of the Ukraine Defense Contact Group at Ramstein Air Base in Germany.

The Ukrainian leader repeated his message that deliveries need to reach the front line urgently as Moscow’s troops make grinding advances in Ukraine’s eastern Donbas region, where Zelenskiy said Russian President Vladimir Putin is keeping his most combat-ready units.

https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/business/international/2024/09/06/pentagon-says-5-billion-invested-in-ammunition-amid-ukraine-war/

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China’s ■■■■■.
I’m pinning some hope on a Russian economic collapse causing a halt to their invasion.

Russia now economically dependent on China, has little strategic leverage since Ukraine War: Study

September 6, 2024, 23:13:21 IST

The Russian dependence on China is such that last year Moscow imported around 90% of all high-priority goods from Beijing, according to a study by the Takshashila Institution

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Since the beginning of the Ukraine War, Russia has become economically and strategically dependent on China, according to a new study.

In a new research paper published by the Takshashila Institution, China researcher Amit Kumar notes that even as there is a degree of symmetry in some aspects of the Russia-China relationship, the overall relationship is now highly asymmetrical in favour of China.

Such asymmetry has left Russia with little strategic leverage over China and has made it highly dependent on China, according to Kumar’s paper titled ‘China-Russia Relationship: Assessing the Power Asymmetry’.

The paper comes at a time when Russia and China are working in tandem at the world stage to undermine the United States and the West. They have hailed their ’no limits’ friendship and have built an anti-West bloc along with fellow authoritarian regimes of Iran and North Korea . These regimes have linked their economies and trade practices such that they bypass the Western institutions to the fullest and fulfil mutually-beneficial objectives.

Since the beginning of the Ukraine War, as sanctions hit Russia and it lost market access to the West, China came its rescue. Now, more than two years later, the Russia-China relationship has become highly unequal.

China rescued Russia — and dominated it along the way

As of 2023, China accounted for 30.4 per cent of overall exports and 36.6 per cent of overall imports of Russia.

For Russia, China has effectively replaced Europe in terms of both imports and exports, notes Kumar, a Staff Research Analyst with Takshashila’s Indo-Pacific Studies Programme.

The breakdown of the imports and exports further provides insight into the dependent and unequal nature of the Russia-China relationship.

Russia’s economy is highly dependent on the energy sector. Gas and crude oil remain central to the Russian economy. For the past decade, energy revenues have comprised up to 30-50 per cent of total federal budget and oil and gas have contributed to around 20 per cent of Russia’s annual gross domestic product (GDP).

Not only are Russia’s exports to China dominated by energy, but a majority of Russia’s global exports are also concentrated in China, says the study.

Kumar notes that this gives China considerable leverage over Russia, which China has not been hesitant to use.

“China has helped Russia cushion the impacts of mounting Western sanctions. Beijing on the other hand, has benefited from heavy volumes of cheap and discounted energy imports from Moscow. However, despite witnessing a symmetric gain in bilateral trade ties, China holds greater leverage over Russia owing to the shrinking export markets for the latter,” notes Kumar in the paper.

Russia dependent on China for Ukraine War

Russia is dependent on China not just economically but also to maintain its war-waging capacity.

Russia imports the vast bulk of dual-use technology and machinery from China which is used in making arms and ammunition.

The dual-technology goods that China sells to Russia include spare parts that can be used in missiles and semiconductors used in weapon systems. The goods also act as raw material for ammunition and artillery shells.

Kumar in his research found that Russia in 2023 imported around 90 per cent of high-priority goods from China and imported nearly all of critical machine tools from China. He said China therefore provided Russia with a “lifeline”.

China has emerged as Russia’s major supplier of critical machinery tools and dual-use goods, thereby sustaining its military-grade industrial capacity in the backdrop of stringent sanctions and stretched domestic capabilities, noted Kumar.

‘Russia strategic autonomy for India is shrinking’

Even though Russia does hold some levers, as China’s military depends on Russia for some of the most sophisticated systems, the overall nature of the relationship is such that Russia is dependent on China, according to Kumar.

This has a direct impact on India as even though Russia remains an old partner and India-Russia exchanges are high, the convergences between India and Russia are reducing by the day whereas the convergences between Russia and China are increasing by the day. Moreover, China is much more relevant to Russia than India.

“Despite all the goodwill that exists in the India-Russia relationship, Kremlin’s geopolitical goals align more closely with Beijing’s than New Delhi’s. Further, trade between India and Russia constitutes only a miniscule percentage of the expanding China-Russia trade,” noted Kumar in the paper.

Previously, Firstpost has reported how India differs from China and Russia in global outlook. While both sides seek a multipolar world, India seeks a ’non-West’ world order whereas Russia and China seek an ‘anti-West’ world order.

While India uses forums like the BRICS and G-20 presidency to give more space and voice to the Global South at the world stage and become a bridge between the developed and the developing worlds and help fasten the progress of the developing countries, Russia and China seek to weave the developing nations into an anti-Western bloc.

In his paper, Kumar noted that considering how dependent Russia has become on China and how closely their geopolitical ambitions are aligned, Russia’s strategic autonomy regarding India has considerably shrunk.

Kumar notes, “India’s lack of convergence on key geopolitical issues with Russia, and its inability to rival China’s economic appeal for Russia threatens cooperation between Kremlin and New Delhi. As the power asymmetry between China and Russia rapidly expands, the room for Russia’s strategic autonomy vis-àvis India shrinks at an equally rapid pace. Hence, the question is no longer about Russia willingness, but its capability to resist China’s pressure.”

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Bump!

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I’m no expert, but I’m pretty sure the Niva bomb created that CARnage.

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