Of course all this speculation assumes that Essendon will beat the Gold Coast.
With one win out of the past 16 intersate, and Ablett likely to decide to play a home game and then rack up 60 possessions unmolested by Essendon, I think there’s too much of counting the chickens before they hatch.
Pretty pointless thread if we can’t speculate.
What incentive do GCS have to win exactly??
A worse draft position?
It’s us or the dogs. And their a win ahead of us
I’ve always loved Collingwood and Hawthorn.
Pretty much, they have Port and the Hawks. If they drop one of those we pretty much make it. If we win our last two. WC need to beat Adelaide or GWS and are still behind on percentage.
Simple. We need to win our 2 games and dogs or dees need to lose at least 1 game. We will know before the freo game on the sunday if we have a chance.
Does anyone know what the odds would be if I placed a bet on Dogs and Dees winning their last two games? It would help offset the cost of next year’s membership and ease the pain of missing the finals for yet another year
Would be $6 or $7 at best.
Both would start favourites in their remaining games
$6.43 with sportsbet.
Melbourne v Lions = $1.15
Bulldogs v Port = $1.87
Melbourne v Pies = $1.73
Bulldogs v Hawks = $1.73
It looks bad when you say they’re favourites for everything, but based on those odds:
Melbourne are roughly a 50% chance to beat us on points even if we win both of our games (which we should).
Footscray are roughly a 30% chance of doing that.
West Coast, something like 10%.
Two of Melbourne, Footscray and West Coast have to beat us (there are other scenarios but they’re pretty much “mathematical chance” only).
These are all (more or less) independent events, so there is roughly a 24% chance of two teams succeeding and screwing us.
We still control most of our destiny: win both games, and boost our percentage sufficiently in doing so.
Hawks have only lost twice since the bye. I’d say they are a real show v Dogs.
Essininth
Hodges last game, they will come out firing.
Port should beat the dogs,
Dogs struggle to score and port are strong defensively
We are still alive and no expectation.
Carn the mighty bombers.
Watching this Port vs Pies game - thinks Pies are a good shot on beating the Dees last round.
They may ‘do it for bucks’
With the new CBA they’ll be doing it for a few bucks
Funny thing is that I reckon there’s a good chance that finishing 8th will be better than 7th.
If next week : Port beat Bulldogs, Adelaide beat Sydney
If Rd 23 : Port beat GC (Adelaide Oval), Sydney beat Carlton (SCG)
This scenario will have Port finish 5th and Sydney 6th.
After watching this weekend, I would prefer to cop Port in Adelaide in the first final as opposed to Sydney in Sydney.
So unless Melbourne drop both games, the best we can finish is 8th, which I would prefer if the above scenario plays out.