So... should we mock those who wouldn't make plans for September?

Anyone claiming to be able to predict that well, especially this year, is a moron. But on some fairly standard margins for the remaining 27 matches 0.13% is currently how it ends up…

We threw away a decent head start that we’ll probably need.

(In this scenario, if Melbourne lose 85-95 to St Kilda instead of my predicted reverse margin, they end up 0.07% behind us. Yes, please.)

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This place will go bananas when we roll the Crows.

Night game under the roof at Etihad. It’s practically our speciality.

Missing Raz hurts but heck we should be confident.

Fairly standard margins mean what exactly? Adelaide just beat a team 3 places below them by almost 100 points, Sydney just beat a team 3 spots above them by 46 points. Collingwood just beat North by 54 points, Dogs only beat Lions by 2 goals etc etc.

Trying to predict ladder position based on percentage this far out is impossible/useless in my opinion, currently we have a better percentage than our rivals for that 7th/8th spot and therefore have the upper hand

Is it wrong to be hoping to miss finals?

Yes

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Much better than finishing 9th

Especially in a season where our debuts have been minimal

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Wait a minute…we’re at home to Crows? ■■■■ just got real. Will win by 4 goals.

Why???

And then we’ll lose to GC a week later

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Yes, but mainly because there is nothing to be gained by finishing ninth or tenth. The extra couple of draft spots mean fark all at that point.

I certainly don’t think making finals and losing week 1 (again) would be considered any sort of step forward for the group, but it would still be finals experience for some of our younger players who need it.

I also don’t think two spots on the ladder will affect how we approach list management at the end of the year, either.

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You make finals you can still win the flag.

It would represent a step forward for the group. This group has never played together before and never made finals. Our list is completely different. These are the players that would probably make it this year that’ve never been to September before…

McGrath, Parish, Ambrose, Hartley, Fantasia, Tippa, Green, Stewart, McKenna.

Then you have Merrett, Gleeson, Daniher, Baguley who have only ever played 1 final.

For this reason it is a step forward. These guys are the future (except Baggs…) so yeah, you might say big deal for a few of the older players, but for the majority of our side, it is a big step forward for us to play finals this year.

I’d imagine the mindset for the group would be different going into next year if we made the finals this year being “our aim is to make finals and win more finals than last year as a bare minimum” as apposed to “we’d like to make our first finals series”… The mindset is always different when you’ve tasted finals without success previously.

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It’s not just about making finals and playing in one, the way I see it it’s about achieving a goal we set out to accomplish at the start of the year.
We will get better by taking all games seriously, and winning “must win” games is important for our psyche.
Right now we are in the home straight of the H&A season, and the pressure is on the club to fight for a seat at the table - that is the challenge at hand and as a club that’s what we do.
Financially it will be a massive bonus for the club, but more importantly it will be a huge boost to our players confidence going into next year with the belief that not only do they belong in the top eight but that they are capable of fighting for a full season and know how important each win is.
Putting the cue in the rack with 3 games to go would send a message that next year will miraculously be better when really we have no idea how the last 3 rounds would play out.
I know there’s benefits to playing kids and that’s fine if they are up to it, I just want to win at all costs.
Also, I know we dropped some easy games but I reckon we shouldn’t underplay a strong finish to the season. After the loss to Brisbane getting to finals was a massive task which we just might complete.

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So our main competitors for the spot in the finals are the Doggies, Saints, Dees and Eagles. Working on the assumption that we will win 2 of our remaining 3 games and our percentage will remain above the others. We need Dees, Saints and Eagles to win 2 or less games. If they win 3, we’re in trouble. A bonus would be for the Doggies to lose 2 of their 3, which would open up another spot in the 8.

The run home

Dees - Saints (L), Lions (W) and Collingwood (let’s say W, but it really could be an L). They shouldn’t be a concern for us.

Eagles - Carlton (W), GWS (L) and Adelaide (let’s say W but you’d imagine Adelaide would be favourites). They shouldn’t be a concern for us.

Doggies - GWS (L), Port (W - but could go either way) and Hawthorn (L). I think they will drop out of the 8.

Saints - Melbourne (W), North (W) and Richmond (L but this really could go either way). The Saints are probably our biggest competition for the 8.

What does everyone else think?

This is the first time this season that I’ve thought 13 wins might be required.

Discounting WCE after yet another loss in Melbourne, as their finishing 2 rounds is just too difficult.

Looking at the games to come for the WB and Melbourne, I think both sides are looking at a likely 13 - 9 season.
Having watched some games on the weekend, I can’t see how the Bulldogs lose to the Hawks last Rd if they are playing for Finals.
I would have them as slight favourites to beat Port the week before, but maybe losing to GWS.

As for Melbourne, their toughest game is this week, but I expect they will end St.Kilda’s season at the MCG, and be good enough to get over Bris and Coll last 2 rounds to make Finals.

If the Saints beat the Dees, everything changes.
We may get away with a narrow loss to Adelaide, and WCE rejoin the conversation.

Has anyone considered the possibility of Geelong imploding without Selwood, and not winning another game to miss Finals on 12 and a half wins ?
They have Rich and GWS at Simonds Stadium, who are both playing for the home Qualifying Final in Week 1.
Their other game is Collingwood at the MCG, who they have trouble with !

It’s not unreasonable that 5 sides end up on 13 - 9 separated by %.
It’s the most likely result for Port, Sydney and the WB.
Melb are a good chance to reach 13, whilst we would be an outside chance.

If Melb didn’t get to 13, the Saints could.
WCE would have to play out of their skins to get there, and simply aren’t good enough.

An incredible season about to get more incredibler this week !

Gee, long at our Point Against record out of the contenders.

If we win contested possessions and clearances for each of the last 3 games we make finals.

The one thing our past three finals losses have in common - aside from being three different types of bitterly disappointing - is that we failed to make finals the following year.

The mere act of making finals is not an achievement. They mean nothing if you don’t win them, and there are still a heap of our better and more experienced players (Hurley, Hooker, Zaharakis, Heppell etc) who haven’t ever won one.

I disagree that losing another final is a step forward, for any club, but specifically for us atm.

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The Geelong one is very interesting.

I can see the Dogs beating hawthorn in the final round.

Hmm. I’d still rather make it than not. Ninthmond arent mocked for nothing.

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I can’t manage to find any realistic combination of results that gets us any other finishing spot than this unfortunately.

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