So... should we mock those who wouldn't make plans for September?

Norf are in tank mode, if we can’t beat them I’ll be fuming

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Imagine it though if it were to happen, then we go on to win the premiership. How good would the movie of the last 5 years be then? Who in the movie would play Jobe & Hepp holding up the cup together, Daniher winning the norm smith and Zerret winning the brownlow?

Stringer done a string. Helps

Should be killing North

I can’t see us making finals from here.

If we were to win the remaining six games then that would be 14 wins and a certainty.

If we win 5, then that’s 13 wins and should be enough.

If we win only 4 games (and I think this realistically is the best we can hope for) then we are on 12 wins and it will come down to percentage and what the other teams around us have do.

And its what the other teams around us do that is the problem.

  • Richmond (GWS, GCS, HAW, Geel, Fre, StK) should win another 3-4 games. We need to win 2 more than them to push them out.Can’t see them missing the finals now.
  • Sydney (StK, Haw, Geel, Fre, Adel, Carl) should win at least 4 (and are a lock for finals on current form).
  • Melbourne (Port, NM, GWS, StK, Bris, Coll) have an easy run home like we do so could win 4. We need to win 2 more games then them to push them out.
  • West Coast (Coll, Bris, StK, Carl, GWS, Adel) have 4 winnable games. We need to win 1 more than them and hope % ends in our favour.
  • St Kilda (Swans, Port, WC, Melb, NM, Rich) have a tough run and I can only see them winning 2, maybe 3 games at the most. We should get above them.
  • WB (GCS, Ess, Bris, GWS, Port, Haw) could win 3+. The game against us obviously important.

So unless we win 5 or 6 games I just cant see us making the top 8. Too much will rely on what happens around us. Over the past couple of weeks games have started to go to form. We only play one of the teams we are fighting with (WB) so can’t directly influence those games.

I think the Carlton and Brisbane losses will be the games we will lament.

we have 6 games left. Our finals fate is still in our destiny, win over saints was important.
it will be losses to Adelaide at home - which could push us out of the 8 potentially that we might lament.
or loss to any of dogs/blues/North/Fremantle

We probably need saints to bear someone in the 8 to keep our chances alive. Or hope one of the bottom dwellers can create an upset.
Tigers potentially lose - GWS, HAW, GEEL, St Kilda - im not sold on the tigers.
Sydney should win 4 - drop Crows and Cats. but have good %
Melbourne - lose to Port, GWS, Potentially Saints - depends if Viney & co are back
West coast have a good run. Saints game again crucial - could even upset GWS and crows if game is at home.
Dogs - if they lose to us then its game over as far as finals are concerned

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There will be upsets in the remainder of the year. Top 4 teams will drop games. Bottom 6 teams will win against those aiming for 7-8th.

Of the teams we are competing with, there are 16 games against Coll, GC, Bris, Carl, Hawks, Freo. The underdogs should win 5-6 of those 16 games.

We win 5/6, it doesn’t matter, we’re secure. We win 4 and there’s a good chance the others will fall flat on their faces meters from the finish line. We lose 3 and we play the kids.

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If there’s one thing Essington has taught us, take one week at a time!

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Ouch!

Next 2 weeks so important. If we win both, I’d back us to beat FC, GC and Freo

5/6 means finals

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Goalscorers in that third win: Carlisle (8), Ryder (2), Chapman, Winderlich, Dell’Olio, Ambrose, Colyer

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I LOL every time I see this model knows about Richmond.

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I don’t think our game plan rocks Sept footy.
Just too weak at the stoppages.

But look I will be so happy to see us play a final.

If we do at least it won’t be Carlton.

Oh don’t worry. I’ve imagined it. I’ve also imagined losing 4 out of the next 6. Hopefully we end up closer to your outcome than the other.

Four wins is the best we can hope for?

We’re playing 5 teams below us.

No wonder so many adopt the Essington tag. You’re the most defeatist clowns around.

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I think we’ve improved enormously at stopagges over the last month or so. Compared to where we were at in the first month of the season at least

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Hard not to when absolute scrubbers like Brisbane and Carlton have embarassed us this year already

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It’s very hard to argue against that.

I don’t think we will lose another all year.

Including September.

This weekend might be a tough ask though. Look what the roos did to Adelaide this year.

Betfair is giving a clean divide in the top 8 market. Adelaide, Geelong, Giants, Port Adelaide unbackable, Sydney, Richmond, Melbourne, West Coast Eagles, Essendon all well under $2, so it comes down to us being able to displace one of those other four, and then only Bulldogs or St Kilda having anything other than a remote chance.

Seems like punters are saying St Kilda will fall away over the next few weeks after what we saw Friday last week, and Bulldogs have taken too long to get their act together.

  • So looking at the four clubs that are our effective competition:
  • Sydney - can the stellar run continue - woudl expect them to take out the next two - but Hawks is danger. If they beat Geelong in Geelong, they deserve it. Lets say they win 4 perhaps 5. Can’t see them beating Adelaide in Adelaide. 13/14 wins better percentage than us.
  • Richmond: GWS have been a bit soft with their injuries, Richmond might take them at the MCG. My best guess is at least three wins, likely 4. So 13/14 wins, but we could head them on percentage if we both end up on 13.
  • Melbourne: Seems like they have been exposed with their NT trip. Lucky for them PA is at home. Still, I think 4 games is likely. 13 wins percentage is a little behind us - hope they get thumped by GWS and have a bad other week.
  • WC: Collingwood and St Kilda away are no gimmies. GWS away could be ugly. Think Adelaide in Perth will do what they need to do. Lets say 2 to 3at most. That’s 11/12. Percentage has daylight behind us.
    So we have to have 12 wins to get 8th spot. 11 games would bring Bulldogs and St Kilda into it - if St Kilda get 3 - and I think they would, they would be on 12. We shut Bulldogs out if we beat them in two weeks, otherwise we risk them taking our spot.

I think we make 8th spot on 12 wins, outranking others on percentage. If we have 13 wins, most likely is 6th. Don’t think we would get 14 wins.

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How Essington would it be if we needed to beat Freo to make finals, at home on the Sunday in Round 23. We then come out with a 2 goal lead in the third and have Freo run over the top of us by 6 goals. That would be the most Essington thing I’ve ever seen I reckon. Some spud like Kersten would kick a career high 6 goals.

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