Betfair is giving a clean divide in the top 8 market. Adelaide, Geelong, Giants, Port Adelaide unbackable, Sydney, Richmond, Melbourne, West Coast Eagles, Essendon all well under $2, so it comes down to us being able to displace one of those other four, and then only Bulldogs or St Kilda having anything other than a remote chance.
Seems like punters are saying St Kilda will fall away over the next few weeks after what we saw Friday last week, and Bulldogs have taken too long to get their act together.
- So looking at the four clubs that are our effective competition:
- Sydney - can the stellar run continue - woudl expect them to take out the next two - but Hawks is danger. If they beat Geelong in Geelong, they deserve it. Lets say they win 4 perhaps 5. Can't see them beating Adelaide in Adelaide. 13/14 wins better percentage than us.
- Richmond: GWS have been a bit soft with their injuries, Richmond might take them at the MCG. My best guess is at least three wins, likely 4. So 13/14 wins, but we could head them on percentage if we both end up on 13.
- Melbourne: Seems like they have been exposed with their NT trip. Lucky for them PA is at home. Still, I think 4 games is likely. 13 wins percentage is a little behind us - hope they get thumped by GWS and have a bad other week.
- WC: Collingwood and St Kilda away are no gimmies. GWS away could be ugly. Think Adelaide in Perth will do what they need to do. Lets say 2 to 3at most. That's 11/12. Percentage has daylight behind us.
So we have to have 12 wins to get 8th spot. 11 games would bring Bulldogs and St Kilda into it - if St Kilda get 3 - and I think they would, they would be on 12. We shut Bulldogs out if we beat them in two weeks, otherwise we risk them taking our spot.
I think we make 8th spot on 12 wins, outranking others on percentage. If we have 13 wins, most likely is 6th. Don't think we would get 14 wins.