if they’ve played AFL after 1 July, they must have played six VFL games
can’t have played more than 12 AFL games
If you’re still in the AFL finals but have a week off, any player who didn’t play in the AFL the week before is also eligible. I haven’t considered that, or the rule that says the AFL/VFL can break the rules, in constructing the lists below. Similarly, a few could qualify or disqualify themselves during either final series.
Definitely eligible (at start of finals):
Stanton
Francis
Ridley
Begley
Mutch
Jerrett (subject to recovery)
Leuenberger
Bird
Morgan
Redman
Langford
Clarke
Hocking
Howlett <-- oops, originally missed him
Dea
Long
Draper
McNeice
McKernan
Possibly eligible:
Bellchambers — must miss 2 of the last 4 AFL games, and must play 1 more VFL game
Myers — must play 2 more VFL games
Brown — must not play another AFL game (likely, due to injury)
Ambrose — must not play another AFL game, or play this week and then play the last 4 VFL games
Laverde — must play 3 more VFL games (likely, if he doesn’t get his GPS numbers up)
Yestin Eades, if he decides to play a VFL game
So: 17 are eligible and likely available (Merrett and McNeice being injury queries). Brown and Laverde are plausible additions to that.
So it’ll be close to business as usual: 19 AFL, three normal VFL players (say, Boyse, Hind, and a sole leadership figure in Ferry), and the 23rd man.
Hey DJR. Is it too much to ask for you to do a quick rundown on that? Who do we have on the run home, and how many wins will get us a spot? Thanks in advance.
A large chunk of that is due to the almost complete lack of pace and small forwards (Merrett being out will make that worse).
On the other hand, it’s now been three months since a team managed to beat us by more than 17 points, and we’ve shown many times we can pile on goals rapidly.
Catch is we still have to play Box Hill (top of the ladder, albeit somehow with a lesser percentage) and Footscray (fourth, granted a four point win over us by Umpire #5 earlier in the year). We also play Geelong away, but that should be a fair bit easier.
For us not to make it, three of the following teams need to pass us:
Currently outside the eight:
Geelong: must win all four games, we must lose all three games. Almost certainly will lose to Box Hill tomorrow. Then get Richmond, Collingwood and us.
Collingwood: must win three more games than us. Play Werribee, Nth Ballarat, Geelong, and Port.
Sandy: must win two more games than us. Play Casey, Richmond, and Nth Ballarat.
Fark Northern: must win two more games than us. Play Footscray, Casey, Werribee and Box Hill.
Currently inside the eight:
Werribee: must win one more than us. Play Collingwood, Willy, Fark Northern and Casey.
Casey: must win one more than us. Play Sandy, Fark Northern, Willy, and Werribee.
If all teams above win as per their current ladder position (i.e. we only beat Geelong) then it’ll end up:
As we have at least a 37% percentage lead on all of these teams, we could lose all of our remaining games and still scrape in. I expect we’ll beat both Geelong and Footscray.
Update: Geelong lost, no longer a threat. Sandy and Fark Northern also lost.
LOLingwood won at Docklands; I assume in front of no more of their fans than usual.
Casey were the ones who beat Sandy, Werribee were the losers to Collingwood. Generally a good set of results for us, we stay in sixth despite not playing.
Yeah, the “has played any AFL game since July 1” clause is new(ish) and can be harsh.
But not many here think this particular player “belongs” in the VFL, so fair enough.
I don’t know if it is actually the club’s thinking or merely claimed to be, but Seven yesterday said O’Meara wouldn’t play another AFL game, regardless of form, for precisely this reason.
So, given the somewhat surprise win last week: can we make top four?
We are one win behind Port, Footscray, and Casey. Equal with Richmond.
Port (3rd) play Box Hill (2nd, away) and Collingwood (8th, away).
Footscray (4th) play us (7th, away) and Willy (1st, home).
Casey (5th) play Willy (1st, home) and Werribee (9th, home).
Richmond (6th) play Sandy (home, 11th) and Coburg (away, 17th).
We play Footscray (4th, home) and Geelong (12th, away).
Willy and Box Hill are excellent tips to win three of those games, we control the result of one of the remaining five.
Top four (even third!) remains plausible, though we’d probably need to have Richmond choke.
It’s particularly relevant as most likely Willy and Box Hill will get the home finals in that first week, and teams 5 and 6 will go to Port Melbourne instead.
Geelong beat Collingwood and Fark Northern beat Werribee — both results were irrelevant after our win today, as was the cripple fight between Coburg and Nth Ballarat.
Casey beat Willy in what I imagine was a brutal southerly wind, crap.
So if I’ve read the OP correctly, if Hurley missed next week and we make finals, we could play him in the VFL week 1 final so he doesn’t have a 4 week gap between games. Right?
