The Forest from the Trees: A post for the stats nerds


#301

I have us on a presumed 10 wins at the moment based on beating saints Freo at home and suns. This week’s game is massive and winnable, that’s 11
I reckon we can beat Collingwood. We usually always go well in the return match after Anzac day.
I think we will get close


#302

Hopefully the last 2 games against Richmond and Port are meaningless for them and give us a good chance.


#303

You’re aware we’ve only won 6 games so far?
So beating Suns, Freo and Saints gets us to 9. We’d then have to beat Norf, Pies and Hawthorn to get it to 12 and hope some others throw up all over themselves.
I’d rather back a 3 legged rocking horse…


#304

Still spewing about the Dogs throwing up all over themselves on the weekend.


#305

Sorry, my mistake yes nine now. Still think it’s an outside chance. Our form is good enough to beat north , Collingwood and we always play well against port, we are also a pretty good chance to beat hawks if our form and list holds


#306

To me it isnt the be all of the year now, we probably cooked our goose earlier anyway. Its great to see the younger players doing so well. It would be great to see them to have the excitement of stringing wins together and hoping to be in the hunt for the 8. Going to be pretty tough from where we are, but we all know what our best can produce. I’m not throwing in the towel yet


#307

Sweet Jesus people we aren’t going to make the finals. Don’t do it to yourselves. We will probably lose the next two and make camp in the drafting and trading thread.


#308

Who cares - I’m just enjoying the footy, how better we’re getting, and the prospect of next year.
Anything else is a bonus.


#309

Exactly.


#310

FWIW

The best stat is that we won in a ripper of a game.


#311

I think Myers should continue with this “stuff the last decade” approach and continue to rack up career-best games.

Not sure he was more than twice as good as The Langford, though.


#312

For those playing at home the stats nerds now have us at a 17% chance of making the finals

Once again, this is Elo based which is slow moving and probably under-rating our current form.


#313

Good article that


#314

It’s a week old but a nice post on our very unusual season

Tl:dr - we aren’t technically the most inconsistent side of the year, but we are definitely the elusive anti-flat-track-bullies of 2018.

P.S. according to that same blog we are now a marginally better side than we were at the end of 2017

image

A reasonable achievement given our run with injury and ongoing transformation of the best 22. Stick fat lid-onners, the good times are coming.


#315

I agree, our best football this year has been much better than last year.

We have struggled a little offensively but that is to be expected considering we haven’t been settled forward of centre.

Our biggest improvement this year has come from midfield and our overall team defence.

Good times ahead for sure.


#316

I don’t have any decent stats to back this up. but imo the rise of our midfield stoppage performance is in no small part due to TBell. Until 3/4 time we kept pace with Collingwood. TBell became uncompetitive and our midfield were thrashed at stoppages by Collingwood in the last, mainly due to Grundy tapping it out to Pendlebury.

The improvement in midfield defensive play was initially Smith, then most of the other players bought in to the Smith way of playing.

According to CD for one, TBell is our best performing player in round 1 to 16


#317

I agree he has certainly made a massive improvement but I wouldn’t put it all down to him.

When I think of our midfield from earlier this year or any other year I think of our slow mids trailing well behind opponents.

Using the Collingwood game as an example I was very impressed with just how fast our mids rolled across from side to side in covering players and space and just how much more committed they were to working their ar$es off.


#318

KM,

I certainly hope Tommy can improve his ability to run out games next year. 3 quarters are not enough. Its actually better to have the chop out ruckman or even a tired ruckman giving away free kicks at centre bounces allowing time to set up down back, rather than have a Pendlebury, walzing out of stoppages the way he was last weekend.


#319

RAOFL
CD rated David Myers BOG. The coaches did not even rate him in their votes.
Zac Merret rated 27th below David Myers. The coaches rated #2 in their votes.

Something very very seriously wrong with the CD algorithm. Its a steaming pile…

GOLD COAST v ESSENDON
10 Dyson Heppell (ESS)
7 Zach Merrett (ESS)
5 Michael Hurley (ESS)
4 Devon Smith (ESS)
3 Darcy Parish (ESS)
1 Mark Baguley (ESS)


#320

It’s that point in the week where Chris obsesses over cd