The Implausible but not Yet Impossible Dream - Finals 2018 - Use the ladder predictor


#181

Predictor thing is near on impossible really as people have mentioned.

This week for example Dogs could very easily roll the Hawks & GWS who are firing again roll WC who are still without goal scoring power.

All we can do is try to keep winning and hope that results continually fall our way, as they did this week with Cats and Melb losing unexpectedly.


#182

If it was so easy to predict the outcome I would get 9 right every week .There are usually 3 games every week which could go either way and also include a Boil Over.


#183

Prediction is just footy tipping and we know how that turns out…

But it was informative to look at the favoured results last week and show just how hard they could make it for us to get there, looking at 14 wins in some seemingly realistic scenarios just to make the 8, and even then perhaps not.

Yet after just one week, while we are still in 12th place, we’ve gone from 2 wins and percentage (effectively 3 wins) out of the 8, to one win and percentage (having gained 6% on the Roos), thanks to 3 or 4 upsets.

If we have a week of extreme upsets (and I mean extreme - but not all time record - upsets) we could be as high as 7th next week.

So in reality the predictor is really a measure of showing how close to reality the dream is.

But in reality we don’t know what reality is until it happens.


#184

Sounds like a prediction from the Matrix


#185

Morpheus: “This is your last chance. After this, there is no turning back. You take the blue pill - the story ends, you wake up in your bed and believe whatever you want to believe. You take the red pill - you stay in Wonderland and I show you how deep the rabbit-hole goes.”

The Ladder Predictor: what happens if you take the red and black pill - and believe what you want to believe.

:red_circle::black_circle:


#186

We still have a lot of work to do to un-stuff our season, despite how far we have come. To be 2-6 and progress to 7-7 is a remarkable turn around but it’s not quite enough.
What we do have in our favor is that there are still 8 matches to go, more than 1/3 of the season.
The other big positives are our current form and that we are still getting better. We are still just getting the hang of having Saad and Stringer in the side. Fantasia just got his mojo back. Langford had a breakout game. Smack feels like he belongs. Bags up forward is working. McGrath is having serious impact and Parish is almost ready to return. Colyer and Ambrose have just come back in… it’s all happening at the right time to give us our best chance.


#187

I like this.
I’m slowly coming to terms with the season being gone.
Getting less angry about the Carlton loss.
If we can build as a team into the next season and actually be relevant…
…which, let’s be clear, we still are not.
But maybe.


#188

Being reported Patton possibly done his ACL at training, not sure if hurts or favours GWS given his form.

But structurally with both he and Cameron missing surely wont help their run home.


#189

Poor guy

How many knees has he done now?


#190

Seriously,seriously overrated.


#191

Weren’t we in a similar position in 1998?


#192

This will be his third.


#193

My guess is two.


#194

No, it was three.
image


#195

Correct.

We lost the last game poorly to Geelong, which would have secured finals for us and had to rely on Richmond losing and dropping to 9th. Which I believe was the birth of Ninthmond.


#196

And to anyone who says that getting to the finals and being immediately bundled out is a waste of time, needs to remember that the '98 elimination final loss was one of a major catalysts for the form of the next three years and the 2000 Premiership.


#197

Well sure.

If the opposition fans throw marshmallows at our coach, we might get something out of it.

But yes, 1998 is a pretty interesting comparison to this year.


#198

we can only afford to lose one more game really


#199

Yeah, wasn’t happy about the Geelong win. Thought Sydney was a Monty to do us a favour.
The run home for all the teams pushing for the 7&8th spots is tough. There will be slip ups and some one will fall hard. Hope it’s not us. All we need to do is keep winning.
Collingwood will expect to win on Sunday and that might be their downfall. Who’d have thought a forward line with Smack would be threatening?


#200

Geelong were never going to be our problem. Winning 6 of our last 8 is going to be the problem…