The Implausible but not Yet Impossible Dream - Finals 2018 - Use the ladder predictor


#61
                    W  L  D
  1. Richmond 19 3 0 137.1%
  2. Port Adelaide 17 5 0 121.0%
  3. Sydney 16 6 0 119.7%
  4. Collingwood 15 7 0 117.3%
  5. West Coast 15 7 0 113.3%
  6. Melbourne 13 9 0 119.6%
  7. North Melbourne 13 9 0 112.8%
  8. Essendon 13 9 0 102.6%
  9. GWS 12 9 1 111.8%
  10. Geelong 12 10 0 117.9%
  11. Fremantle 11 11 0 96.7%
  12. Hawthorn 10 12 0 103.9%
  13. Adelaide 9 13 0 96.7%
  14. Western Bulldogs 8 14 0 82.8%
  15. Brisbane Lions 6 16 0 83.4%
  16. St Kilda 3 18 1 71.0%
  17. Gold Coast 3 19 0 64.1%
  18. Carlton 2 20 0 66.2%

#62

Ladder predictor is up on AFL site.

I went through and selected wins-losses but just left the margin at the standard 20pts.

Result: we finished 9th, just behind Norf on percentage.

The message is: when we win, we have to win big, cos it might come down to percentage.


#63

We are playing good footy. If we win tomorrow we’ll be even on the ledger. Why the hell cant we make it?

Note: my optimism has nothing to do with the fact that I backed us to make the 8 a while back at 16-1


#64

Still got us finishing 11th, probably a game or so out. Woeful % is a killer


#65


#66

Not really
11th most experienced
7th oldest (although about 10 months separate the middle 15 clubs, so it means almost nothing)

On the sides we’ve been picking we’ve been about mid pack as well.

We shed a lot of age & experience last year: Watson Kelly Stanton Hocking Bird & Howlett add up to 1000+ games.


#67

Age, certainly, but I think you put too much store in this.
Four of the players you mentioned played 18 senior games between them last year, so…not a massive year-to-year loss of experience there.
And we added well over 200 games of experience with SSS.
Plus, of course, the rest of the list that added a year of experience.


#68

I answered a question!

We were up in the top 4 for list age, list experience, and (regularly) 22 age & experience last year.

We’re now right in the middle of the pack for both.

But of course I’m wrong.


#69

Not having a go!


#70

I think, like most stats, it’s a number which means something, but not everything: can’t ignore it completely, can’t let it define you.

If we were (like last year) picking old, experienced sides which weren’t doing much, it’s a worry. I was very critical of the sides we were picking last year.


#71

I understand that the list was comparatively old/experienced.
I guess I’m just wondering how our starting 22 generally rated, both against our opponents at the time and as compared to our starting 22 this week.
It might be very similar to the overall list ranking, it might not.


#72

I’m not fussed either way whether we make finals or not, for me it’s the way we play the rest of the season that’s most important. If we continue down the recent path of the last six weeks, it’s going to be positive for next season, but it also gives us a chance for finals this year by virtue of our fixture.

The next four probably determine this years fate. I think the media going on about 14 wins for finals is an exaggeration, history shows that not to be the case. Granted, the two bottom sides only have one win a piece, I think we can all agree they’re not one win a season teams. I think they’ll pick up more wins and be much more competitive. Look at the Bulldogs, a much improved outfit over the past few weeks despite their injury list. The GWS were cooked three weeks ago, yet sit in the 8 controlling their own fate. They did us a favour by beating hawthorn last night who have a much more comfortable fixture. So long as we beat the teams we should (Freo, GC, StK) and beat the teams around us Roos, Hawks, Port & Collingwood we will make it. If we can keep playing the way we have recently, we’re a big chance. It all rests on the next four though IMO.


#73

I think GC are tanking hard.


#74

I think we need 14 wins to make it, only one more loss allowed. I can’t see it happening.


#75

I haven’t done the sums at all, but that would be highly unusual wouldn’t it? I can’t remember a year where 13 wins didn’t get you in?


#76

Even if we win today there are 5 sides on 8 wins(us 7) going for 3 spots. The odds are pretty high that 3 of them will go 5-3 in the run home. If we were only competeting agains 1 side it would be us go good and the other fall over. We are banking on 3 sides capitulating, they all won’t.

Our percentage is kaka so 13 won’t do.


#77

Too early to tell.

There will be injuries, upsets and teams in the top 4 will rest players to give some game time to their bench and emergencies.

The later rounds also become interesting as the players in the bottom teams try to show something for the coach and next season and the players with September action already booked back off to avoid injury.

To be in the game we need to win today, next week against Collingwood (and we usually win the return match) and go to Carrara and play a totally dominate match against Gold Coast and win by plenty ( The predictor only goes to 60…that said it has been decades since we smashed someone by 100+)


#78

The fixture is as such that some of the teams above us play each other too. Provided we win the ones we should (and yes, % would be nice in those), and the games vs the teams around us, we should make it. GWS & Geelong in particular have tricky runs home. NM do too from memory. There’s always a chance.

Irrespective, if we keep playing the way we have recently, we can go into 2019 with positivity. We will have had some time to gain cohesion and identity on how we wanna play with and without the ball. We will get Joe back and proper pre seasons into some prime movers like Fantasia for the year after. We will also fall into a middle bracket fixture for next season and have gained some belief playing on the road having won our last 3 interstate. Positives to take away regardless IMO. It may actually be better to miss out as strange as that may sound, will add pre season motivation and improved draft position (in a supposed super draft) and more favourable fixture in 2019. It really is down to how we play over the remaining games in a consistency sense.


#79

I understand all this but I just don’t think it’s ever happened before that 13 won’t get you in. I’m not sure what’s happened this year to make that any different (possibly Carlton and Bris only winning a game each, but even that’s happened before?


#80

That’s the 2nd set of numbers (“22 age & experience”)

Last year we were pretty old, this year (depending on which week) we’re juuust south of the middle.