The Implausible Dream - Round 22 and we are still hoping... Ladder predictor in OP


#1

The AFL ladder predictor is out of commission at the moment, but I have found the below one:

What I found:

I’ve been on the ladder predictor picking us all the way and trying to pick the most obvious choice for other games and …

… the crazy thing is that while it might only take 14 wins to make the top 4, and we “could” make it if we win 15 (all the rest of our matches) but we would also have to win 14, only dropping one game, just to make the 8.

13 is unlikely to cut it for us, the way the draw falls and our poor percentage unlikely to get us past other teams.

While we can help flatten the top half of the 8, with having just played West Coast and playing the rest of the top 5 in our remaining 9 matches.

Unfortunately we only play 2 teams, North and Hawth, who we are in range of, who are in ladder positions 6 to 11 above us who have 2 games and percentage on us, so we have to rely on other teams to bring those above us back to the field.

So on the upside, we will have to be in almost 2000 like form to make the 8, so if we do, especially if we can beat Richmond in round 22 and Port Adelaide away in round 23, then there is no reason why we can’t go all the way.

I did entitle this thread “The Impossible Dream” …

So if we don’t fall down before then, our two biggest remaining hurdles are at the end and if we fall at both of them, we most likely don’t make the 8.

That is by my calculations, how about yours???

(the tools you might like to use) …

http://www.afl.com.au/ladder

http://www.afl.com.au/fixture


#2

More chance of getting bitten by a shark on land.


#3

image


#4

Losing to fark Carlton. We don’t deserve finals.


#5

The moment we take our eyes off learning the game plan and enjoying our football, and turn our attention towards making the finals… it will all come undone.

I wish people would stop talking about finals and just enjoy watching the kids learn to play together and enjoying their football.

The only finals we should be talking about is the VFL finals.


#6

That was probably the icing on cake to making this season “impossible”, that and the Bulldogs game.

It is pretty crap that we have to win 2 more games this year or have a much better percentage compared to last year, the way things are going, and our draw is a lot harder than last year.


#7

I think the exercise I suggest may help meet your suggested objectives.

I agree, it is about developing a team and embedding a winning culture, and getting a better draft pick.


#8

I don’t agree with that.

I’ve totally lost interest in the draft.


#9

Like it to losing to Carlton in the 99 Final, redemption comes at a cost.


#10

Just looking for an upside.


#11

Without even doing the Predictor, I’d suggest ALL of the following games we MUST win…

NM
Coll
GCS
Freo
Haw
Saints

That would assist bringing NM, Haw and even Collingwood within our sights, and kill off Freo.
% must be gained against the Saints and Suns.

IF we were to win the above 6 (Yes, it’s a big if), we may be able to slip up twice in the following 3 fixtures…

Syd
Rich
Port (away)

I concede that 13 wins may not be enough with our current %, but things can change quickly.
After all, we lead Geelong by 52pts, and had WCE 50 - 1.
We need to convert some dominance into bigger wins, even against good sides.

Let’s start this week…


#12

Maybe that is a good exercise to make a thumbnail sketch, then try the predictor to see how you go.

To get past the percentage of North Melbourne in 8th, were it to stay at 117%, we would have to average 40 to 50 points better than our opponents for the rest of the season while also losing 2 games out of 9 to finish on 13 games with a better percentage than that.

You can test this by only giving us 40 point wins for the rest of the season (and say lose the last 2 closely).

This is a much harder ask than last year when we had an easier draw and only had to win 12 games and beat Melbourne’s percentage of 105.2% to finish 8th (we got 106.5% and 7th).

Actually it isn’t all that unlikely that we could improve on last year (same wins, better percentage, harder draw) and miss finals finishing 10th or 11th.


#13

Need a couple 12 goal wins and a few 6 goal plus even if we end up matching the points of others by round 23.


#14

Certainly need plenty to go our way

Cameron’s likely lengthy suspension helps
Treloar missing rest of season helps

Fkn spewing Dogs didn’t close that game out against North, but they did also lose Waite to injury again which def helps us.

At least the boys will know every game is do or die so shouldn’t ever be left thinking we didn’t turn up to play / bring the effort


#15

We’re not making the 8. Jesus

Just enjoy the rest of the season and hopefully some consistency starting to show and continue on


#16

I concede that 13 wins may not be enough with our current %, but things can change quickly.
After all, we lead Geelong by 52pts, and had WCE 50 - 1.
We need to convert some dominance into bigger wins, even against good sides.

Let’s start this week…

It would be great if we could. We’re up against it with our best forward injured, last year’s CHF playing (well) in defence, out third tall not capable of being number 1 or 2 and our best small forwards only beginning to find form. Pity about our first seven weeks…


#17

We’re gonna make it and you’re going to front to the elimination final against Sydney again.

And you’re going to like it.


#18

I think we can make the 8 based on the ladder predictor. There is a lot of footy still to be played and anything is possible. If we play consistently well every week and win convincingly in most of the games and with the last 5 weeks form change (Richmond aside - even though we had good numbers in that game as well and apart from some dubious umpiring and conversion could have been a lot closer) .Its now or never though, win at least 7 more games (from remaining 9 rounds) and hope other teams start falling around us with injuries and form slumps and who knows :slight_smile:


#19

I’m not interested in what might happen in 3 months. We have a game against North this week. They are a good team, but we’re playing well and we can take them. I’d rather concentrate on doing that.


#20
                    W  L  D
  1. Geelong 16 6 0 126.9%
  2. Richmond 15 7 0 122.7%
  3. Sydney 15 7 0 112.9%
  4. Port Adelaide 15 7 0 111.9%
  5. West Coast 14 8 0 113.4%
  6. Collingwood 14 8 0 112.8%
  7. Essendon 14 8 0 111.3%
  8. GWS 13 8 1 111.2%
  9. Melbourne 12 10 0 114.3%
  10. Hawthorn 12 10 0 105.2%
  11. Adelaide 12 10 0 103.2%
  12. Fremantle 12 10 0 96.7%
  13. North Melbourne 11 11 0 105.2%
  14. Western Bulldogs 9 13 0 85.1%
  15. Brisbane Lions 4 18 0 83.3%
  16. St Kilda 3 18 1 73.9%
  17. Carlton 3 19 0 71.5%
  18. Gold Coast 3 19 0 66.6%