The Impossible Dream - wakey, wakey! - will we finish 9,10, 11 or 12th? How will the finals unfold?... Ladder predictor in OP


#21

:joy::v:t3:


#22

Just picking as I went through. A few upsets, a few favoured the home teams…

We miss second by percentage :slight_smile:

                     W  L  D
  1. Richmond 18 4 0 136.3%
  2. Melbourne 14 8 0 119.2%
  3. Sydney 14 8 0 114.5%
  4. West Coast 14 8 0 113.7%
  5. Collingwood 14 8 0 112.9%
  6. Port Adelaide 14 8 0 107.5%
  7. Essendon 14 8 0 107.0%
  8. GWS 13 8 1 115.0%
  9. Geelong 13 9 0 114.2%
  10. North Melbourne 13 9 0 109.3%
  11. Fremantle 13 9 0 100.2%
  12. Hawthorn 9 13 0 101.1%
  13. Adelaide 9 13 0 94.5%
  14. Western Bulldogs 6 16 0 78.3%
  15. St Kilda 5 16 1 78.2%
  16. Brisbane Lions 5 17 0 85.7%
  17. Gold Coast 5 17 0 69.3%
  18. Carlton 4 18 0 71.1%

#23

If we make finals with Smack & Brown as our two main fwds we deserve some kind of a medal regardless.


#24

I picked us to win every game and we were 8th with faves winning everything else. One game clear of 9th. ■■■■ percentage.

We ain’t making finals.


#25

#26

“Kids”

Surely we have one of the older lists in the comp?


#27

We have to travel interstate one of the four weeks. Boooooooo.


#28

2018 AFL AGE LADDER

Average age of each club’s playing group

Adelaide — 24.6

Hawthorn — 24.6

Geelong — 24.4

Collingwood — 24.4.

GWS — 24.3

Port Adelaide — 24.2

Essendon — 24.1

Sydney — 24

Melbourne — 24

Fremantle — 23.9

Richmond — 23.9

West Coast — 23.9

Carlton — 23.8

Western Bulldogs — 23.8

St Kilda — 23.6

North Melbourne — 23.5

Brisbane — 23.5

Gold Coast — 23.1

2018 AFL EXPERIENCE LADDER

Average games played by each club’s playing group

Hawthorn — 74.1

Port Adelaide — 72.5

Collingwood — 69.9

Adelaide — 67.9

Sydney — 65.6

Geelong — 65.4

West Coast — 63.9

GWS — 63.9

Fremantle — 63.2

Richmond — 61.7

Essendon — 57.6

Melbourne — 56.5

Western Bulldogs — 56.4

Carlton — 56.4

Brisbane — 55.2

Gold Coast — 53.5

St Kilda — 52.6

North Melbourne — 51.8


#29

hgh


#30

Holy ■■■■■■■ moley…

this thread… what the actual ■■■■.


#31

I know.

It’s making me believe.


#32


My favourite scenario, however unlikely, is that all of Hawthorn, North Melbourne and Collingwood miss the finals, and GWS has a super low finish to maximise our draft pick swap for Dev Smith.

It requires us winning all remaining games though, so top 4 is a long shot but mathematically possible.

This is what happens if we loose the last 2. The same teams still miss, but we play Melbourne at the G in the first final!!


#33

I did the Predictor faithfully, with all current information in mind regarding injuries, suspensions and form.

EXCEPT, I wanted to see how it looked if we won every game.
My perception before doing the exercise was that 15-7 might even sneak 4th, but would certainly give us a home Final.

I was a little shocked to see this at the completion…


#34

Just a little under half a season to go. Some injuries / suspensions to key players in other marginal contenders can have a big effect. Like in the WCE game, it went our way. Collingwood lost Treloar. Key Player, Hawthorn lost Burgoyne. Key player. GWS lost Cameron for about 6 weeks ( likely to be more due to bleeding on the brain, which is definitely not a good look) These are wild cards that are not factored in by any ladder predictor in auto mode. Read the quatrains of Nostradamus instead.


#35

Heh, the ol’ “there have been lots of upsets so far this year, but I predict there will be none from now on” approach.


#36

Apart from the ones that gets us to 15 wins.


#37

Finals experience is important if we win.

Finals experience is detrimental if we get flogged in the first round, which adds even more stress, frustration and salt to an already huge wound.

I just don’t buy this sneaking into finals stuff, if we have to travel to Sydney or Adelaide, and be up against it once again.


#38

If we do ‘sneak’ into the finals we will be the most ‘in form’ team in the competition having won something like 11 of our last 14 games.

We are not going to sneak into anything. We’ll just fade away quietly.


#39

I’m comfortable that our list management team can find us 1 or 2 players from anywhere in the draft at the moment.

We have consistently found AFL quality players late in the past 4 or 5 years.


#40

If we had 4-5 picks in the 3rd & 4th round. I have more confidence that we’d find 1 or 2 elite players than a couple of first round picks in the top 10.

Talking to a mate of mine who is a Carlton supporter. He is filthy with their club about the way they have sold hope to the supporters (and garunteed success) because of all the no. 1 draft picks they’ve had. He simply doesn’t care about the draft any more either.