THE ROAD TO THE FINALS


#1

The ladder seems to have settled itself into 3 distinct groups at the completion of Round 10.
Whilst it may seem drastically early to start such a thread, someone will invariably start one 7-8 rounds out from the end of the season.
Might as well have an ongoing thread now to discuss who are looming as the genuine contenders, and who are hoping to make up the numbers and fall into the 8.

These discussions can get lost in non Essendon game threads, or individual team threads.
I like the idea of a recap of the weekends games, and a weekly break down of the changing shape of the ladder.
Let’s not turn this into another bash Essendon thread, rather a broad discussion of all the sides in realistic contention for Finals and their fluctuations.

Here are my current thoughts…

The Premier will only come from 1 of these 5 sides.
Could anyone make a convincing case for any other team ?
My earlier queries about the legitimacy of Geelong, GWS and a Rance-less Richmond have been put to bed.
WC have been cruising and less than impressive for the most part, but they are still 7-3 and can play much better.
Collingwood are my favourites, though they would want to win it this year.
I feel like that midfield is about to fall off a cliff, soon.
Their lack of leg speed could expose them.

It looks increasingly like 8 teams are fighting for spots 6/7/8.
12 wins with a % above 106 will probably get you in this year.
13 wins might snag 6th and a Home Final as I expect all those inconsistent sides in the middle pack to share games, and some will lose to the likes of North, Sydney and Melbourne.

Brisbane have the advantage of being at least a win in front currently with a record of 6-4.
I’ve had a good look at their draw and conclude that 12 wins is very achievable for them, but I’m not totally convinced.
Today illustrated their immaturity.
Wouldn’t surprise me at all if they tapered off a fraction, finished the year on 11-11 and just miss out.

As disappointed as we all are about our own form, and likely another season “spunked up the wall” as Stallion often eloquently puts it, a look at the Ladder, the sides around us and just in the 8 indicate that we are still very much in the frame for Finals action in some form.
Whether that be another Week 1 annihilation is a discussion for later, if it comes to that.
Nonetheless, I highly, highly doubt that we can afford to split our next 2 fixtures if we hope to play Finals.We must square the ledger ASAP.

IMO, St.Kilda and WB won’t get above 11-11.
Ports impressive kids may tire so I’m not sure about them, and I have reservations that their older guys can hold their form over a long season.
Adelaide would want to defeat Melb this week in Darwin, as they have an horrendous month after that.
As abhorrent and unpalatable it is for me to admit, I reckon Clarko will get the Hawks into 7th or 8th spot.
He has them playing to a well structured plan that makes them difficult to play against, and has enough experienced Premiership players who simply know how to collect the wins (12-10).
Freo ???..who knows ?

Can WE go 8 out of 12 to make it to 12 wins ?
Honestly, probably not with some difficult assignments in our run home.
Ask me again in 3 weeks (after the Hawks game).

These 5 sides can’t make the Finals from here.
Melbourne the only team with the talent to get on a run of wins which would give them a chance.
Such is their injury list however, that even if they were to upset the Crows in Darwin this week, Collingwood will surely extinguish any faint hopes the week after on the Queen’s Birthday MND Clash.
No coming back from 4-8 !

Intelligent posters like BWAS and/or stats nerds like SplitRound most welcome to contribute to the thread.
Thank you for reading if you’ve come this far…


#2

I wouldn’t bank Richmond and West Coast into the top five, although I think WC are a certainty to make the finals.
Richmond are likely to make it from there, but I wouldn’t be surprised if they didn’t.

I don’t think Adelaide or Hawthorn can go all the way, but I do think they can take out a contender.


#3

We have a much easier run home. Could conceivably win 7 games straight going into the Collingwood game.


Carlton - WIN

Hawthorn - LOSS - 50/50. Has Clarko but they are inconsistent due to lack of talent

WC (Away) - LOSS - 50/50 but they have home advantage
GWS (Home) - LOSS

Swans (Home) - WIN
North - WIN

Crows (Away) - LOSS - 50/50 but they have home advantage

Suns (Away) - WIN
Port (Home) - WIN
Dogs - WIN
Freo (Away) - WIN
Pies - LOSS


Gives us 11 wins, but win just one more out of the Hawks/Crows/WC/GWS/Pies games and we could be playing finals.


#4

Port and Dogs at Marvel + Freo Away is a tricky 3 week stretch to be pencilling as wins, but I applaud your Lid Offness !


#5

I don’t rate any of those teams. If we stink it up then yeah we’ll lose. But if we can starting clicking just that little bit better then we should beat them.


#6


#7

I was putting together something for the late end of last year when we made our run. Form permitting looking forward to be doing it again


#8

The way we are headed Melbourne will swap places with us and move up the ladder. That is providing their injury list doesn’t continue as it is. We are headed toward the bottom.


#9

Forget finals we are deplorable.

Carlton will come in favourites against us, perhaps not with the book makers but in general.

We are now without 3 of our 4 recruits…

This is the downhill slide from here on in…I don’t see us beating the blues.

4-7 no comeback from there either. Especially given our injuries which we didn’t have this time last year. I hoping to avoid bottom 4 being honest


#10

From 6 down the teams are ordinary, it’s just about who can play consistently but they are just making up the numbers

We fucken blew this year, it’s wide open


#11

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#12

They most definitely are not favourites against us. In fact they’re paying $3.30. Jump on em if you honestly think they’ll win. It’s big odds.


#13

If anyone thinks Carlton will beat us, you clearly haven’t watched them play much. I know we are playing poorly, but they are absolutely awful.

The game vs St.Kilda yesterday had several patches where I was wondering if I’d accidentally flicked on channel 31 and was watching a 4th division ressies ammos match.


#14

Wasn’t that long ago we were supposed to beat Sydney who were on the bottom of the ladder and hadn’t won at the SCG since the Jurassic period.

Essington have a strange way of making rubbish sides look like the globetrotters.


#15

Great post @bltn

All the more frustrating that we didn’t knock over Saints & Swans when we should have. And Pies game could have easily gone our way also.

Even so things could turn around as per our run at it last year but with the injuries continuing to stack up making that less and less likely.

We are really going to have come home like a steam train post bye.


#16

Thread title should read: THE ROAD TO JUST MISSING FINALS BUT PUTTING IN SOME REALLY GOOD EFFORT ONCE WE ARE NO LONGER AN ACTUAL CHANCE OF MAKING THE FINALS, DESPITE THERE BEING A SLIGHT MATHEMATICAL POSSIBILITY, AND PROVIDING SUPPORTERS JUST ENOUGH HOPE TO RENEW THEIR MEMBERSHIPS FOR 2020 AND GET BEHIND JOHN WORSFOLD WHO HAS REALLY CONSOLIDATED FOUR SEASONS OF LEARNINGS AND DON’T FORGET TO DONATE TO THE FLIGHT PLAN.

I realise it is long, but I think it is catchy.


#17

I’m pretty sure he said let’s not turn this into another Essendon bashing thread. Take it somewhere else.


#18

I was just responding to another post that has nothing to do with the thread topic.

So shove it up your â– â– â– â– .


#19

Lol. Settle down idiot.


#20

My broad view is if you hit mid-season at more or less 50/50 (5-6, 6-5) than you are well an truly in the game. You want to really start hitting form around round 15-16, get the kinks ironed out and hit finals with a head of steam.

Things turn quickly in sport, and as long as we beat Carlton, than I’m not willing to write this year off just yet. Could we be in a better spot? Sure. But we are where we are, and we are in the mix still.