The ladder seems to have settled itself into 3 distinct groups at the completion of Round 10.
Whilst it may seem drastically early to start such a thread, someone will invariably start one 7-8 rounds out from the end of the season.
Might as well have an ongoing thread now to discuss who are looming as the genuine contenders, and who are hoping to make up the numbers and fall into the 8.
These discussions can get lost in non Essendon game threads, or individual team threads.
I like the idea of a recap of the weekends games, and a weekly break down of the changing shape of the ladder.
Let’s not turn this into another bash Essendon thread, rather a broad discussion of all the sides in realistic contention for Finals and their fluctuations.
Here are my current thoughts…
The Premier will only come from 1 of these 5 sides.
Could anyone make a convincing case for any other team ?
My earlier queries about the legitimacy of Geelong, GWS and a Rance-less Richmond have been put to bed.
WC have been cruising and less than impressive for the most part, but they are still 7-3 and can play much better.
Collingwood are my favourites, though they would want to win it this year.
I feel like that midfield is about to fall off a cliff, soon.
Their lack of leg speed could expose them.
It looks increasingly like 8 teams are fighting for spots 6/7/8.
12 wins with a % above 106 will probably get you in this year.
13 wins might snag 6th and a Home Final as I expect all those inconsistent sides in the middle pack to share games, and some will lose to the likes of North, Sydney and Melbourne.
Brisbane have the advantage of being at least a win in front currently with a record of 6-4.
I’ve had a good look at their draw and conclude that 12 wins is very achievable for them, but I’m not totally convinced.
Today illustrated their immaturity.
Wouldn’t surprise me at all if they tapered off a fraction, finished the year on 11-11 and just miss out.
As disappointed as we all are about our own form, and likely another season “spunked up the wall” as Stallion often eloquently puts it, a look at the Ladder, the sides around us and just in the 8 indicate that we are still very much in the frame for Finals action in some form.
Whether that be another Week 1 annihilation is a discussion for later, if it comes to that.
Nonetheless, I highly, highly doubt that we can afford to split our next 2 fixtures if we hope to play Finals.We must square the ledger ASAP.
IMO, St.Kilda and WB won’t get above 11-11.
Ports impressive kids may tire so I’m not sure about them, and I have reservations that their older guys can hold their form over a long season.
Adelaide would want to defeat Melb this week in Darwin, as they have an horrendous month after that.
As abhorrent and unpalatable it is for me to admit, I reckon Clarko will get the Hawks into 7th or 8th spot.
He has them playing to a well structured plan that makes them difficult to play against, and has enough experienced Premiership players who simply know how to collect the wins (12-10).
Freo ???..who knows ?
Can WE go 8 out of 12 to make it to 12 wins ?
Honestly, probably not with some difficult assignments in our run home.
Ask me again in 3 weeks (after the Hawks game).
These 5 sides can’t make the Finals from here.
Melbourne the only team with the talent to get on a run of wins which would give them a chance.
Such is their injury list however, that even if they were to upset the Crows in Darwin this week, Collingwood will surely extinguish any faint hopes the week after on the Queen’s Birthday MND Clash.
No coming back from 4-8 !
Intelligent posters like BWAS and/or stats nerds like SplitRound most welcome to contribute to the thread.
Thank you for reading if you’ve come this far…
