Oh, 100%.
But finals are still clearly achievable, and in a good position too.
You chose the incorrect template, Doe.
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Donāt think this has been posted before, but Iāve been keeping an eye on this set of graphs by the Arc Footy. Now has us exactly 50/50 for finals, which I think highlights how delicately poised we are. Note too Brisbane being exactly 50/50. Obviously it doesnāt quite boil down as simply as this, but the idea that one of us or them makes it seems about right to me (though I can also imagine Richmond not being able to get the wheels back on and missing out).
Like many others are saying, I think we are a pretty good chance if we can get one of the next two.
What is interesting is I donāt think the Arcās methodology (which I believe is based on an ELO system and then simulating match results) makes any allowance for personnel. If you think we are likely to get some more stability in the forward line, and hence improve in that part of our game, you could make the argument we should hope for the better side of their expectations. Thatās also how you could argue we might defy other stat siteās projections (like the Squiggle, which currently pegs us for tenth).
Yes, I know that is squinting at the glass to make it look half full.
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I think our biggest asset is ESSENDON VFL.
We have depth there that is in form.
As the season gets old, injuries accumulate, betting scandals occur, etcā¦teams have to draw upon their depth.
We can call upon Ridley, Gleeson, Myers, Francis, Baguley etcā¦itās just the rucks that are our soft spotā¦tall forwards yeah, but throwing Hooker forward is always an option.
My guess is that the prediction websites donāt capture reserves depth in their calculations.
I actually believe that it is a reason why we came home strong last year - we were able to cover the few injuries we had.
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We have a reasonably fit list but Daniher, Smith and Draper arent coming back this year.
Stewart is most likely indefinate as well.
Clarke is a adequate ruck backup. But I think we lack forward KPP depth.
Would be great if Stewart returned to the VFL.
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You sit on a throne of lies.
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LOL
We look best when we can run it through the centre corridor.
Plan A would be win hit out Shiel/Zerrett run it away and have a shot at goal or hit McKernan lace out.
Plan B is win it back in Defence and run it out with Saad McKenna through the middle and hit up a leading forward target.
Plan C is win it in defence switch play to the open side and run it down the wing create a outnumber by making defender commit to player with ball and try and get a easy goal over the top.
Plan D is win the ball back in defence and kick long down the line to a contest where we can hopefully knock it over the line if we canāt mark it and reset from boundary throw in.
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You left out plan E - create a stoppage in forward line and set up a blockade 70 to 80 metres out.
Ambrose Guelfi Zaharakis McKenna kicks goal from rushed clearance running into 50.
Worsfold stopped reading after Plan Aā¦
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CTFY
Thatās what assistant coaches are for.
Further to my previous post about the Arc projections, I think the other critical takeaway from the footy stats sites is that it is likely 12 wins gets it done this year. I assume this is because the bottom-half teams are better this year and will gobble up a few more wins that would otherwise be hoovered up by spots 5 to 8.
This is important as I routinely see media analysis saying weāll miss out, but which uses 13 wins as the marker. 12 is a lot more do-able for the Bombers.
I donāt want to just fall in the 8.
Want to head in with some momentum, taking some big scalps of teams in the 8, so they are worried come finals. Due to our stingy defence our % isnt too bad after getting blown away by giants round 1.
If we can dish out a couple of hidings, weāve been close but let some cheap red time goals at the end of the game reduce the margin. % may make or break making the 8, or having a home final, if a number of teams finish on 13 wins.
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Pies/EaglesX/Crows/Giants/Freo/Hawks 
/Swans/Power/Dogs/North/Suns
So we lost our second hardest game in our run home of 11.
Anyone have the Eagles at home ranked higher or lower?
Lol road to the finals really? Weāre not getting anywhere near the finals
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We can play our specialist role of shaping the finals.
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Just waiting for the clappers to log in and tell us all that they didnāt expect us to beat west coast anyway and it doesnāt influence our run home to the finals.
Yeah nah, we still actually have to look like a finals side.
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