13 has been the definite in win figure for as long as I can remember under the final 8 format. 12-10 has probably been a 70% chance of making it, but then it becomes a percentage game, or like last year 9th-12th all finished 12-10 and a game outside. It’s in our own hands now. We play well enough, we make it.
With 6 interstate teams in the 8 at the moment (and Geelong a lock for top 2), knowing our luck, we will play an interstate final in week one, and then again in week 2 if we happen to win.
The next 2 games are must-win. 9-7 heading to Adelaide, that game then becomes a free hit to an extent. Win that and the whole thing opens up for us, even a 5th-6th finish and hosting a final a real possibility. Lose, so long as we don’t take a massive hit percentage-wise, we are still ahead of the game with the Suns, Power and Dogs to come. If we split the next 2 and are 8-8 it becomes more urgent and we are walking a tightrope like last year.
I completely agree. If we win them both we will almost certainly be in the 8 because both Port and Freo are very likely to lose at least once in those two weeks. Sydney at the G and North at Docklands are both games that we ought to win: we’re above both those teams on the ladder and we like to think we’re better than both of them. If we play at our best then we can and should win both.
We were in similar positions three or four times in the second part of the 2018 season and we failed the test every time. If we don’t do better this year then I for one will be joining the chorus calling for Worsfold to go. It’s the coach’s job to get the team ready to play at their best and most intense on game day, and now is the time for him to do it.
At the exact stage last year, with the same record (though further behind the Final 8), we had a chance against the Pies after a rousing win against a faultering North.
Of course, we blew it.
Then we won a few to give us another chance, and blew it again against the Hawks.
They were Top 4 teams though.
If we can’t defeat both Sydney and North, I’m okay with missing out.
We have an opportunity as the 2 teams just above us are pretty average.
I believe we are better than both of them, however, I have reservations that we will take the points against Freo in Perth.
A win there might not be mandatory, but could be the difference between 8th and 6th.
We lost Ambrose who was DeGoey’s opponent in the first quarter. And had to move Guelfi back.
And then had Stringer & Myers on one leg each unable to contribute in midfield rotations against a midfield that batted seriously deep.
Yes we lost the game but I don’t think it was a “we blew it” scenario. We simply got over run because our core mids were gassed and theirs were fresher. Pendles in particular got loose.
I remember the injuries, but we had chances in the 3rd qtr to put a gap in them.
Smack missed a sitter from 20 out.
We had ascendancy, but couldn’t capitalise.
They were all over us in the final qtr, and once they hit the front (early in the qtr), we knew we were done.
I hope we are truly a better side this year, because both Coll & Haw could have been wins in 2018, quite easily.