THE ROAD TO THE FINALS


#504

Don’t get sucked in around North. Collingwood were abysmal on Saturday, and they were lucky to beat the Bulldogs the week before.

I don’t know whether injuries are starting to stack up, or losing Stephenson has really screwed their system, but they are running on an oily rag at the moment.


#505

Agree.

The Pies are 3 wins and 9 losses without Stephenson. He’s young, but crucial to their line up. They are barely going ATM and should’ve got rolled by the Dogs last week as well.

EDIT: Copied this stat from a Pies supporting friend and 99% sure it is false. 100% sure. However, let’s not let that get in the way of a good story.


#506

Losing clearances/contested ball with Adams and Beams missing. Plus Sier went off with concussion.

Bucks slamming them for being soft at contest.

Stephenson just an added factor on top of that.


#507

Speedy you are an awesome poster.

Unlike most of us, you keep yourself in check, you look at the facts and keep emotions out of it.

Most of us (I’ll include myself) consciously or sub consciously seem to have a need self validate and “win the argument”.

Unfortunately the argument that has been ingrained that many of us can’t break is “we are predestined to be middle of the road or crap, we are losers who give up”.

I believe this rubs off.

History will change. We will break through this.

It could be about to happen over the next few months.

We should all be strapping in for the ride and doing what we can to avoid being negative drains on all those trying to turn our history around.

Its not any of the current players or coaches fault for our 15 years of crap.

That’s our historical baggage.

Yet we try to drag down those who are trying to break that cycle with our lazy “we are a crap club, just wait and watch us do this like we always have. See I told you so” draining negative energy.

This is what Paul Roos tried to describe at Melbourne.

I think the change in culture is actually on everyone who is Essendon.

Its on you and its on me.

Go Bombers. More of what we saw in the last quarter against GWS. Bring home the season.


#508

Brisbane would well lose the next 2, which will bring them back to the pack also.


#509

Do either Adelaide or Brisbane have a tough run home?

If not, then it’s Freos spot that we will need to take, whilst vying with Port

If we are vying for that spot we would have beaten Swans and North in the next fortnight which ends their seasons


#510

North also spanked Richmond which is something we haven’t done in what feels like forever. They are in pretty decent form IMO


#511

In expecting to win the next 2 against Swans and North. We just have a lot more to play for.


#512

These type of thoughts are what lead to large influxes of Bomber supporters attending Lid On events.


#513

Can’t be right YT.

I have it on good authority that coaches with “systems” don’t need their good players on the park in order to win.


#514

That means we lose

when we have nothing to play for, that’s when we play like we’re top 4


#515

In the 18 years of a final 8 with 16 teams in the comp the 8th placed team got in with the following wins:

13 wins once
12 wins plus % twice
12 wins 5 times
11.5 wins three times
11 wins plus % twice
11 wins twice
10.5 wins plus % once
10.5 wins once
10 wins once
So there has been quite a large variation in the number of wins needed but about 11.5 was average.

Since the 18 teams in 2012 the number of wins of the 8th team has jumped a lot with:

14 twice
13 twice
12 plus % twice
12 once

It looks like this year will be at the lower end of the scale and will probably be 12 wins but may also need percentage


#516

This week’s match is so crucial, every week the matches keep getting bigger. The pressure is on the next two weeks with both matches being must wins against two in-form teams. Saturday arvo at the ‘G, is there anything better?


#517

Have been playing around with a ladder predictor of late. This week’s results changed things dramatically.
Have us finishing 7th if we lose two games and one of those is not against Port or Freo. We can still get into 8th with 3 loses provided it’s not against those sides.
The Doggies and Swans are going to play a role in this. They could beat some of the teams around us and pave the way. Even Bris could fall below us.


#518

Pretty simple from here. We beat the sides around us or below us and we get in, which is most of our run home. It’s a long shot but achievable.


#519

good post. Concur with this bit in particular.

Trying to make it one person’s fault or another person’s fault is pointless and probably counter productive. Always areas for improvement across the whole club.


#520

Is there any footy saying more obviously, self-evidently wrong?

I’ll believe it the instant I see a club saving $9M on their salary cap, by filling their list with 40x park footballers and relying on “teh system”. Ie, never.


#521

Really need to be aiming for the double chance…


#522

Win them all from here on out & we’ll get it.


#523

Sorry to be a gloomer but when belly went down. So did our slim chance of finials IMHO.

Also weather we make finials or not. Woosh will still be coaching next year.

Our pressure was great against gws. But we where terribl, and llok no where near finials to me.