THE ROAD TO THE FINALS


#545

If we can’t make it with the draw we have then we are even worse than many think.

We are shoo ins, I hope we relay this thinking to the players.


#546

What could go wrong?


#547

We have 8 games to make some changes to alter our structure to maximise our strengths as a counter to injury induced weaknesses.
We have significant depth down back but almost none in the forward line.
Step 1. Hooker forward. Debut zerk.
Step 2. Conor forward. Ridley in.
Ok we may let a couple more goals in, but our forward line will be formidable especially with Stringer back in.


#548

The fellow FurryLogs on The Lounge had a fair bit of negative to say about the Bombers.

Geelong are apparently 187 for pressure acts consistently each week and we are up and down like a Sydney Captain on a goal post.

We were 210 against the Swanies last time let’s bring 220 this week.


#549

Some of our better wins (bris, north, haw) look to have had less pressure acts. Is that the way forward?


#550

I summon thee @SplitRound @SplitRound @SplitRound

Can’t make pressure acts if you’re waiting for Hawthorn to kick backwards six times then forward and to you on the seventh?


#551

Could 2019 have a 10-win finalist? See how it can happen


Mitch Cleary

Essendon is the most recent club to make finals with just 10 wins (plus a draw) in 2009. Could they do it again?

ARE we on the verge of having a 10-win finalist for the first time in the 18-team competition?

Not since Essendon in 2009 – a year they also played a draw – has a team played finals with 10 wins.

Before that you have to wind the clock back to 1995 since a side last featured in September with 40 premiership points in an eight-team finals system.

Brisbane was still the Bears when it made finals with 10 wins in 1995. Picture: AFL Photos

Approaching round 16, just one game separates 14th and eighth with a logjam of seven clubs emerging for the last finals berth in September.

With Geelong flying at the top of the table and teams in the middle-to-lower region of the ladder incredibly even, a 10-win finals side is on the cards.

Richmond’s improving injury list and kind run home with seven matches at the MCG has them in a comfortable position to play finals.

THE RUN HOME Is Port too unreliable to play finals?

From there it’s anyone’s game.

Should results fall their way, the Bombers – currently on seven wins – may only need three more to secure a berth.

Port Adelaide – currently in ninth – faces the most fascinating run home with seven of its remaining eight matches against teams from fifth to 12th.

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Since the introduction of Greater Western Sydney in 2012, a minimum 12 or 13-win season has been required to play finals.

Even Carlton’s 2013 campaign – when it played finals from ninth after Essendon was stood down – saw them win 11 matches.

This year could be an outlier for the ages.

DO YOUR OWN: Use the AFL Ladder Predictor to see how 2019 plays out

HOW IT WOULD PLAY OUT – KEY GAMES

Round 16 – Sydney defeats Essendon (MCG)
Round 16 – Adelaide defeats Port Adelaide (Adelaide Oval)
Round 16 – North Melbourne defeats St Kilda (Blundstone Arena)
Round 17 – Hawthorn defeats Fremantle (UTAS Stadium)
Round 17 – North Melbourne defeats Essendon (Marvel Stadium)
Round 17 – Brisbane defeats Port Adelaide (Adelaide Oval)
Round 18 – Adelaide defeats Essendon (Adelaide Oval)
Round 18 – Richmond defeats Port Adelaide (MCG)
Round 18 – Fremantle defeats Sydney (Optus Stadium)
Round 18 – Western Bulldogs defeat St Kilda (Marvel Stadium)
Round 19 – Western Bulldogs defeat Fremantle (Marvel Stadium)
Round 20 – Hawthorn defeats North Melbourne (Marvel Stadium)
Round 20 – Essendon defeats Port Adelaide (Marvel Stadium)
Round 21 – Port Adelaide defeats Sydney (Adelaide Oval)
Round 21 – Essendon defeats Western Bulldogs (Marvel Stadium)
Round 21 – St Kilda defeats Fremantle (Marvel Stadium)
Round 22 – North Melbourne defeats Port Adelaide (Marvel Stadium)
Round 22 – Fremantle defeats Essendon (Optus Stadium)
Round 23 – North Melbourne defeats Melbourne (Blundstone Arena)
Round 23 – Port Adelaide defeats Fremantle (Adelaide Oval)
Round 23 – Collingwood defeats Essendon (MCG)
Round 23 – Sydney defeats St Kilda (SCG)
*All games decided by 20 points

10-win finalists in the top-eight system

2009 – 16 teams – Essendon – 8th – 42 points (10 wins, one draw)
1997 – 16 teams – Brisbane – 8th – 42 points (10 wins, one draw)
1995 – 16 teams – Brisbane – 8th – 40 points (10 wins)


#552

Rather not make it than get there on 10 wins and have to travel to Adelaide. Would be a repeat of 2009.


#553

Defeatist attitude. Got to be in it to win it!

That said I’d have us beating Syd and every chance against North also especially if Stringer back anyway so that would have us to 12wins

Then probably avoiding playing away to the 5th ranked side.

What’s better though? Crows away or Tigers at G?


#554

If Geelong are the bench mark that doesn’t even look that bad?

A poor fortnight vs teams that play high possession footy (wce, hawthorn).

This is good

https://squiggle.com.au/who-won-round/?rid=201915


#555

Seriously, sports “Journalism” is at an all-time low. How does one person’s ridiculous ladder predictor become a feature story on the AFL’s website?


#556

The article is ridiculous as we know that 10 wins won’t be enough.
There are simply too many teams in contention for 8th, for all of them to fall over.
11 with a very competitive % is a sneaky chance, but I wouldn’t want to risk it for us, considering we still need to make up a little on Freo and Port.

I did the Squiggle Predictor inputting all the results myself.
I had North beating us because (a) it’s a genuine 50/50, and (b) I wanted to see if a win would realistically bring them into the frame of Final 8 talk.
To counter this loss, I gave us a win against Coll in Rd.23.
Obviously, these 2 results could be switched.

Here are all my results.
I believe I’ve been quite sensible with the margins…

Final H&A Ladder…

then, dare to dream {insert BSD’s fave emoji}


#557

That’s my thinking as well. We need to shift hooker fwd to strengthen our fwd line. Like u said we have plenty of good backline depth. Its time to use that.

But woosha will not do it.


#558

Cats Bombers GF. Someone wouldn’t survive the weekend in this house.


#559

Notice how the graph is designed and displayed to amplify what looks to be a highly erratic result - when in fact it’s not actually that erratic at all? I ■■■■■■■ hate this ■■■■.


#560

I think 12+percentage is more likely. It’s a dumb article for sure.


#561

Well yes I believe so. The graph has a suppressed zero, an age old way of visually amplifying a variable. The average is 183 and the actuals can be expressed as a % of the average.
Its never going to be the same in any given game. For instance it was running at about 86% in the Hawthorn win and the West Coast loss. But in the West Coast loss, the midfield was comprehensively beaten on a 6 day break. The pressure standard deviation was just pressure 15 points that is, ±8%

image


#562

Switching the far more likely scenario

I’d give us more chance over North, especially so if Pies top4 spot is riding on them winning against us.

If our finals spot is riding on that win though also will be one hell of a clash, was discussion it could end up scheduled for Friday night also

Preferably we have our spot secured before that


#563

Nice pick up guys regarding that graph displayed on ‘On the Couch’.
Very interesting that our best pressure result against Sydney, still equaled a loss to the bottom side.

Our worst pressure result, equaled a comfortable win over the Hawks.

You’d expect the guys on the program to qualify the results, but with blockheads like Browny on there, maybe not :see_no_evil:


#564

So what you’re saying it that our pressure standard deviation is extremely similar to Redman’s fantasy point accumulation.

There’s another article in that, I reckon.