THE ROAD TO THE FINALS


#103

We also have 5 senior players (including 3 match winners) due back post bye which will essentially have us at as full strength as we are going to get for the year. JD & Smith cooked.

In particular getting our best fwd line mix going again will be key to firing over back half of season

Sheil. Stringer. Fantasia. Brown. Gleeson.


#104

Could easily win 3.


#105

Still maintain we’ve got a decent chance to make 12 wins and finals.

We’ve got a tough 3 games ahead but if we can pinch one of those I reckon we still might be ok.


#106

I agree. I think we are building towards something that will win finals. Our defence is now very strong (people haven’t seemed to notice this) and with Raz, Stringer and Shiel back our forward line is much better. We can get over Hawks. We must. Then we simply have to win one of GWS and WC and we are on our way to finals. We beat them both last year. Swans, Dogs, Suns, Power, Roos are all winnable. Pinch any of the others and we are top 6.


#107

If we don’t beat Hawks then it’s curtains for 2019


#108

Yes, it’s our final. With 12 days break, home ground and 3 key players back we can win this.


#109

I tip us to miss the finals. I also tipped Collingwood to smash Freo.


#110

mini-elim final, 8 point game


#111

Ahem.

4


#112

Bears repeating: 12 wins and a non-awful percentage is a very good chance for finals. Obviously you’d prefer to do better.


#113

5 wins expected from FC?

LOL


#114

Round 11 Re-Cap…

  • Tigers stunk it up at Marvel once again.
    Some interesting comments by Wim regarding them in his earlier post.
    Must admit, I haven’t considered a possibility of them missing the 8.
    IF they lose their next 2 however(Gee, Adel), then they would be right back in the pack and under pressure.

  • Collingwood have been getting by in some games playing 20-40minutes.
    Sooner or later, they were going to lose a game like this.
    Great win by Freo.

  • Very important win by Brisbane after conceding the first 5 goals.
    At 7-4, they are in position to solidify a Finals spot in the next 3 weeks with winnable games.
    Win all 3, and they are neck deep in the Top 4 conversation.

  • Adelaide were gutsy in the last qtr to not give it away, but also incredibly lucky that Melb were woefully inaccurate.
    They have a tough month coming up.
    I’m still not convinced of their Top 8 credentials.

Though the following 3 teams will probably win their next game (St.Kilda, WB, NM), I am ruling them out of Finals talk for the meantime.
With Richmond and Brisbane looking fairly comfortable at the present time on 7-4, the battle for 7th&8th encompasses 5 sides (2 SA sides, Freo, Ess, Haw).
The loser of Ess v Haw post the BYE will have a big fat red line thru their name.

I suspect we scrounge a win over the Hawks by 3ish goals.
Big question is, can we take a game off a really good side after that ?
WC away OR GWS at Marvel ?


#115

Brisbane’s draw this year has turned out to be historically easy. Take a look at the teams they play away (barely any of the top sides) and the teams they double up against.

They will make it based on that and it will be a false economy either for the finals this year, or predicting their rise next year.


#116

It’s short enough mate when u have to fly out on a wed


#117

ANY CLUB hoping that a tough fixture might trip up one of this year’s premiership contenders is set to be sorely disappointed.

Four of the top five sides – first-placed Geelong, Collingwood (third), reigning premier West Coast (fourth) and Brisbane (fifth) – all face schedules that rank among the top five easiest fixtures in the run home, according to Champion Data.

WHO MAKES FINALS? Do the 2019 Ladder Predictor

The Cats don’t play another top-four side from now until the finals, with four games against teams in the bottom half of the eight, five against sides ranked ninth to 14th, and two against teams in the bottom four.

The cards have also fallen Geelong’s way in the first half of the season, with their first 11 games rated the fourth-easiest fixture to date.

Port Adelaide, Greater Western Sydney and Adelaide are the only clubs to have enjoyed a softer start to their campaigns.

The Power have had the easiest first 11 games, according to Champion Data.

But back to the run home, where St Kilda, 12th on the ladder with a 5-6 record, has the easiest final 11 games.

The only time the Saints face a top-four side is when they take on the Cats in round 17, while they also take on the Lions, Richmond (sixth) and eighth-placed Adelaide.

FULL FIXTURE Every round, every game

Hawthorn – 11th at 5-6 – has the toughest run home, including five games against top-four teams.

The Hawks take on the Eagles twice, along with meeting the Cats, Magpies and second-placed Greater Western Sydney in a horror stretch.

Port Adelaide’s road to the finals is just as bumpy, with five games against sides in the top eight.

The Power are clinging to seventh spot with a 6-5 record, above crosstown rivals, the Crows, on percentage.

The Crows have the fifth-toughest run home, with all top-four sides on the horizon.


#118

It has to be more than luck that we consistently get one of the tougher draws and Collingwood get one of the easiest.


#119

Though we don’t have the greatest run home, it’s probably more important that most of the teams we’re fighting with for a top 8 spot have worse fixtures. Hawthorn (worst), Port (2nd worst), Adelaide (5th). With only Freo (12th) having a supposed better run home than us (7th).

Can’t express how important it is to triumph over those teams on the way home. We verse them all once on the run home so there’s potentially 4 x 8point games ahead. Our destiny is in our own hands…


#120

EFC have fairly much a neutral draw - So it’s up to the team to show they are good enough.


#121

Squiggle show our most likely finish is around 11 wins at around 102%.
According to the overall model as at the Bye.
14 wins might get us into the top 4
13 wins will get us into the 8 (around 6th)
12 wins might get us into the 8 (7th or 8th)
11 wins puts us in 9th or 10th.

To get 11 wins we must beat all the sides currently close to us. Swans , North, Gold Coast, Bulldogs, Freo and Hawthorn.
12 wins, 1 of West Coast, GWS, Adelaide, Port, Collingwood ( most likely Port)
13 wins 2 of the above ( most likely Port and Adelaide)
14 wins 3 of the above ( most likely Port, Adelaide, West Coast : a bridge too far? )

By the end of round 18 we will have played Port and Adelaide, so we should know by then where (±1) we will finish in the 8, unless we lose ANY game to a side we need to beat to get 11 wins.


#122

IMO 12 wins will get you into the finals this year
The games against mid table teams are super important.
We must be the hawks.