Remember that only 3 games & % separated the top 9 teams, so comp is closer than many think.
We lost games against Syd & Lions in rounds 14 & 15. We were in winnable positions in both games. Against the Lions we dropped 27 point lead early in the last Qrt. Against the Swans we were 19 points up with 10 mins to go. A bit of luck & stronger defensive efforts across the ground & we win these games.
Assuming everything else remains constant - Winning these two games would have put us within a game & % off top spot, on the edge of top 4 & a home final.
Sure I could say the same thing about any team in the top 10 sides. But this is about Essendon and we are in business to win flags.
I see the Crows and Tigers & Cats slipping. Swans & GWS holding firm and with natural development and strong recruiting I see the Bombers and Power getting better and advancing into top 8.
I think that the Crows will slip without the run of Cameron & defensive prowess of Lever although Gibbs will help in the middle / HB. They have also lost Smith which hurts. Ultimately, with a delayed start they will fall behind a Little from last year.
Port Adelaide
GWS
Essendon
Sydney
Adelaide
Geelong
Hawthorn
Richmond
I see Geelong as the big slider. Would have them missing the eight altogether but the home games at Kardinia Park or whatever they call it these days will get them there.
Sydney will take a lot of beating, provided they donât have the start they did last year.
Sydney
GWS
Adelaide
Richmond
Essendon
Port
Melbourne
Geelong
Top 8 predictions.
1- Adelaide: They were the best team in 2017 but failed on the big stage, Expect them to replicate that form again.
2-Sydney: Expect them to Challenge again and have a better start than in 2017, expect them getting 16 wins +.
3-Port Adelaide: there trade period was second best Essendonâs and should excel in the top 4.
4- Richmond: Reigning premiers and should get in top 4 quite comfortably but they should try and avoid a bulldogs season.
5- Essendon: We should go to another level this season and I believe we will be the best attacking team and improve quite well in defence but I feel we have a tough fixture and we donât have quality depth in midfield.
6: GWS: I think their squad has thin compared to 2 years ago and but I reacon theyâll still improve as a team and mature as a group.
7: Melbourne: if they donât make finals then thereâs something wrong with this club.
8: Fremantle: I know Iâve left out Geelong but I feel Fyfe, Walters, Brayshaw and cerra will click for freo, watch this space.
I wouldnât be putting any money on Freo and I reckon theyâre likely to still hover around 8 wins, but it wouldnât surprise me at all if they made a big jump into the 8.
Where would you have rated them if they didnât get Rockliff, Watts or Motlop?
Iâm really not convinced at all those guys make this club better. Are they all committed to training hard and being better than theyâve ever been or are they just in it for the money?
Watts is probably the only one who got a kick in the â â â â on the way out and in all 3 cases their clubs were happy to let them go. Iâm not convinced guys like Rockliff and Motlop will be playiing with an âIâll show themâ attitude. But maybe Rockliff will thrive playing at a competitive club and maybe Motlop will love playing at a club that clearly looks after the indigenous boys.
If they do work hard and play career best footy, theyâll be a big help to Port. It will be big effort from the coach and leadership group to get these guys to sustain that over an extended period.
I would have backed Port to drop out of the 8 if there were no significant changes to their list. The changes they have made arenât sure things at all. They could work really well or could be big busts.
Also getting Trengove, Thomas and McKenzie indicates to me they donât trust the depth and youth on their list.
If things go really well for them, they might be borderline top 4. If they go average theyâll be borderline top 8.
Without looking at the fixture, Iâd go withâŚ
Geelong - GAJ and Tim Kelly are massive additions for them.
Adelaide - Think theyâll pace themselves a bit more this year.
Port Adelaide - Will definitely be better than last year.
GWS - They are slipping but still have enough talent to keep them in the top 4.
Essendon - Weâll just miss out on a top 4 spot because the teams above us have clear home field advantages, but if we donât lose to two of the bottom 6 teams, then weâll be right there.
Melbourne - Should make it. The Hogan, Gawn and Viney injuries last year hurt them a lot. Donât know if they will improve enough to be anything more than first week finals fodder.
Western Bulldogs - I think theyâll bounce back. They had a real bad year and still were close to a top 8 spot.
Sydney - I think theyâll fall. They rely so heavily on Buddy that I think heâll show his age, begin regressing and miss some games to injury / suspension. Still good enough to make finals though.
Richmond wonât make the 8. I just donât see them having another injury free run, amazing Dustin Martin season and the ability to stay on their game for the season while handling the pressure of being premiers.
I think Collingwood might be a slight chance of making the 8. Not because theyâll improve, but because other teams around them are on the decline. I think both West Coast and Hawthorn will fall down the ladder sharply.
I also wouldnât be surprised if the Saints fail to be competitive. Can Bruce handle the forward line all by himself? Is Membrey good enough to be a second option? Can McCartin get on the park long enough to be useful? Too many question marks.