Top 8 - who drops out to make way for us?

So i was discussing with a random Richmond supporting scumbag last night how we think Essendon will go this year and to my bemusement he said ‘i think you guys will finish 10th’. I laughed and said ‘nuh i think we’ll be pretty good this year, but at the same time every year i have high hopes we end up being rubbish’.

Anyhow we proceeded with the conversation and he said ‘ok then, so who is gonna drop out of the of 8 other than north?’. I began to think through it and couldn’t really come up with another team that i thought would drop out. So despite thinking we have a pretty good list this year, i realised there are a heap of teams going around that would think they could contend or will significantly improve as well as. There are also a lot of teams on paper that seem to have very talented lists. I’d almost break the teams into a few groups as to where i think they would sit and would like opinions on which teams people think will improve or drop off and therefore allow us the high finish where we all want, which would be top 6. I see ideally we would move into group 3 there, but the competition is pretty tough.

Group 1 (the elites): Bulldogs, GWS, Swans
Group 2 (the close to elites): Geelong, Hawks
Group 3 (Seasoned good teams): West coast, Adelaide
Group 4 (the big middle group, fans have high hopes for them this year to break into the 8): Collingwood, Port Adelaide, Essendon, Melbourne, St Kilda, Gold coast, Richmond, Fremantle (i think they’ll bounce back)
Group 5 (the cellar dwellers): Carlton, Brisbane, North. Even these 3 i think will be competitive this year.

10th is about right.

Easy. Norf…fark Norf

Bulldogs is to 2017 as Hawforn is to 2009.

Not that they’ll fall as far and miss the 8, but more that they over-achieved a bit early and will find it hard to replicate that straight away.

But yeah, to answer the actual question, North will drop out, it’s just whether or not we can snag the spot ahead of St.K/Melb etc.

Agree with group 1.
Id have Adelaide, Westcoast, Hawks and Geelong on the same level.
Really hard to judge how the Hawks will go.
Geelong where unimpressive in the finials to me last year too. Stop danger and Selwood and they have nothing.
Very unsure of the rest but Ill have a go

Swans
GWS
Adelaide
Bulldogs
Westcoast

Freemantle
Hawks
Geelong
EFC
st Kilda
melbourne

So the fight for the finial 3 spots in the 8 is
EFC, Hawks, Geelong, Saints, Melbourne and freo in no particular order.
The rest I dont really rate much at all.

The only teams I’m confident will make top 8 are the ones you have in group 1. In my opinion there are 5 spots up for grabs.

Cats, Hawks both over achieved last year in terms of H&A. They could both easily slide down the ladder.

West Coast lost a home final first up and weren’t as good last year as they were in 2015, I’m not convinced they are a sure thing and I feel the same way about the Crows. I know Crows made the finals two years in a row, but Port made a prelim and haven’t made finals since.

And I agree with TVB, Norf definitely drop out.

I think the way you set those groups out is pretty fair. I see us in that same sort of band you put us in.

Of those teams you mention, I’m super confident we will finish above Richmond and feel we will most likely finish above Gold Coast as well as Fremantle (who I don’t think have great key position strength and seems to be a bit of disunity).

If we have a good run with injuries, some of the younger guys continue their progression like we hope and the returning guys don’t take too long to hit their stride then I think we can finish as high as 7th- ish.

If we get a cruel run with injury and we take a while to synchronise as a team I think we can finish as low as 13th- ish.

2018 we will be even better again. We are starting to put together a strong core of players many of whom have great improvement left in them.

North easy.

Hawks have a terrible midfield, Will see them drop more games, Losing Mitchell is massive, By far their most influential player. (Also a massive cnut)

Geelong aren’t as good as people think, They have Dangerwood and then B graders. Enright and Bartel gone hurts, Toooheyyy isn’t that good. Lonergan is cooked and Taylor is on the decline. Besides Hawkins they ain’t got much forward.

Injuries will play a big part.

I agree that the obvious answer is North. Possibly Hawks if trading period has caused a rift between coach and players(probably wishful thinking on my behalf - as anything that causes those ***** to fall down the ladder is good by me).

However, it will probably be a team we don’t expect as this is so hard to predict. At this time last year how many of us thought Fremantle would miss the 8?

ALL OF THE TEAM.

(They’re finishing 18th, remember?)

Norf, Whorethorn and the ■■■■■■■ all to drop out

North and Geelong. There will probably be someone else totally unexpected too - there usually is.

I look at it this way.

Don’t care who drops out, hope it is Hawthorn, Weagles and Adelaide, Kangas are fried, Geelong is toast and Doggies cannot play that well again.

On that reckoning, we will finish third behind Swans and Giants. Then we will win all finals, and I will die and go to Heaven.

Norf, Whorethorn and the ■■■■■■■ all to drop out

I like it!

North easy.

Hawks have a terrible midfield, Will see them drop more games, Losing Mitchell is massive, By far their most influential player. (Also a massive cnut)

Geelong aren’t as good as people think, They have Dangerwood and then B graders. Enright and Bartel gone hurts, Toooheyyy isn’t that good. Lonergan is cooked and Taylor is on the decline. Besides Hawkins they ain’t got much forward.

Injuries will play a big part.

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‘o n e - e y e d’ is farkin censored???

Things are so tight in that middle bracket of the ladder these days that injuries and the results of close games will play a huge role in determining who makes the 8.

Essendon has the talent on the list to make the 8, but it’s going to take a lot of hard work and maybe a bit of luck to move up the ladder quickly.

Things are so tight in that middle bracket of the ladder these days that injuries and the results of close games will play a huge role in determining who makes the 8.

Essendon has the talent on the list to make the 8, but it’s going to take a lot of hard work and maybe a bit of luck to move up the ladder quickly.

To be fair, we finished last so I’d be hoping a move up the ladder is a given.

We’ll finish top of the ladder, and the rest can sort themselves out.

We do have the easiest draw due to finishing last. That should be the equivalent of 1 or 2 extra wins over the year compared to teams with harder draws.

May make the difference, may not, but it is a factor when comparing teams in the same grouping.

North
Cats
Eagles

Will all drop out imo.