I’m really interested to see people’s ideas on how we could pull off this Trifecta of a trade. Please keep it realistic and everyone give it a go. I will start it off.
Essendon
OUT- Pick 11, Pick 28 & 2018 3rd rounder
IN- Jake Stringer, Devon Smith and Adam Saad
Gold Coast Suns
OUT- Adam Saad & Pick 19
IN- Pick 11 and 2018 3rd Rounder
I’d prefer not to give up next year’s first round pick but I don’t think this year’s picks are enough unless we find a team willing to take some players.
If GWS or GC have academy players, then we might be able to combine a whole lot of later picks to make up the value points.
North Melbourne could help. They haven’t gotten their free agent targets and are now keeping Goldstein, so they may be willing to take in salaries that will expire next year so they can throw cash at next year’s free agent crop.
That trade values Saad somewhere around pick 30. Which is a little less than we got for Melksham the year he finished 9th in the B&F and we finished 15th. Last year for us Parish finished 10th behind Matt Dea. I’m not sure B&F and trade value are strongly correlated.
Posted this in another thread, but it seems more relevant here.
If we trade out 11, 28, 46 for SSS, it’s a damn good result.
The only way I see this being beaten is to keep 11. For this we need to trade out 2018 2nd + players.
Assume we don’t touch Francis, Laverde & Langford. The youngsters like Mutch don’t have any real value yet. You are looking at Browne, Ambrose, Colyer, Myers, Leuey, Hartley. Any of those could give us a pick upgrade from 46 to 2nd round.
So trade out a player, 28, 46, 2018 2nd. Keep 11 & 2018 first.
Will be a positive thing for the club to turn fringe players into draft currency.
I think people get way to hung up on perceived value of picks. He’s not worth 15 it’s more like 20-25. When in reality there isn’t much difference, yes you would prefer a higher pick but it’s not worth splitting hairs to work out a perfectly balanced trade. You win some trades and lose some as long as it’s in the right ballpark it’s ok.
For me 3 players want to come and they are 3 good players. If it takes two first and a second to get it done so be it. We know their good, it’s great from a lost age profile, get it done and move on. If Dodorro keeps one of the firsts fantastic, but it’s important to get these deals done.
Everyone knows we need to trade 11 for a player + 2nd round pick. All 3 clubs would want to be that club. It’s far more valuable to get pick 11 than it is to get a 2nd rounder.
Dogs likely positioning to get 11 in the Stringer trade, but GWS and GC could offer a better 2nd round in return.
Exactly. Just go to the Dogs, do you prefer #11 and #46 for Stringer and #26, or do you prefer #19 straight? None of the players are (now) worth a pure first rounder on their own, so we use #11 and #46 to get a player and pick. Maybe supplement with our 2018 3rd or 2017 4th somewhere.
It all really depends on the Bulldogs. If they insist that they want a pick 15ish or better, and stick to that, we’ve got a bit of a problem. If they see the way the wind is blowing and take either #19 or #11 & #46 for #26, then it could be all done relatively quickly.
Fair Value for SS&S is #15, #25 & #35 = 2400 points
We have #28 + #46 = 1000 points in this year’s draft.
If we trade 2nd & 3rd pick next year in a better draft,
let’s say that’s = 1000 points.
I don’t think we need Ridley, Francis, Brown & Hartley.
Hartley’s a great kick & spoiler just needs to get stronger in the gym.
I think he’s worth #30 (600 points).
So we would notionally have 2600 points to buy SS&S worth 2400 points & we keep our 1st round picks this year & next and the 2 young talls (Francis & Ridley).
Need to find clubs who want to load up on points & have the right picks.
Will it happen? Probably not, but I would love to go to the next 2 drafts & pick up a quality young mid each time.
Whilst I’m at it I’d also trade Rob Forster-Knight and Jay Nash to Port (again) to get back into the 2nd round of next year’s draft.
If he was in the draft (hypothetical), I couldn’t see many clubs passing on him twice. almost every club wants that kind of pace, someone would get him inside the top 30, maybe even late first round.
So that’s his value, teens to mid 2nd round.
22 or 23, so just about to hit his peak footy years.
Can someone provide a list of players who have been picked at 11? In a supposedly weaker draft - especially if it means we get 3 established players, I don’t see the big deal in giving away pick 11 in exchange for a slightly lower pick.