Trade talk - from September 2025 (Part 9)

The major problems with their bid.
We have limited list spots.
With 5,6,21,27 & 30 means 10 would have been great, but 22 would have been our 4 best selection and only marginally better than 27 and 30 in this draft.
If teams needed to swaps picks last night for the draft then maybe we would have done it. But WC potentially splitting, Rich potentially splitting, Carlton trading 9 and GC 15 - none of those will be done until draft night or very close.
We didn’t want to leave trade night with 7 top 30 picks.

We now need to go hard for Carltons pick 9 - it’ll take our 2nd next year with some this year to get it done I believe. Carlton will want something next year to help with Walker

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I’m not sure that list decisions should ever. E a Board decision. It is an operational matter, let management do their job.

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Was talking to someone from AFLHQ at a wedding last night. Said Essendon met with them and they put forward the suggestions for the new draft system in 2027 and they were pretty comfortable with the changes. Given that, I assume they have a plan for Koby from a trading of picks perspective.

… and they get special help via their protected NGA.

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How did Hawthorn’s final offer for Merrett compare to the Petracca and Curnow deals?

A few quick points first:

  • Sydney, Hawthorn and Gold Coast are all likely top-6 sides over the next couple of years, so their future picks will probably be in the late teens.

  • The 2027 draft will be heavily compromised because of Tasmania’s entry, meaning even first-rounders could slide into the 20s.

  • There’s also the time value of picks — it’s always better to get talent in the door now rather than later, plus there’s more risk attached to future selections.

Curnow trade

Curnow, 31, 42 and a 2027 2nd
for
Hayward, 11, 2026 1st and 2027 1st

This one’s assess because it depends how you rate Hayward. He’s kicked 70 goals over the past two seasons, so he’s a good player in his own right. Let’s be generous and say Carlton basically traded 31, 42 and 2027 2nd for him.

That means, roughly, Carlton got pick 11, a 2026 first and a 2027 first for Curnow (plus the chance to trade for Hayward). As discussed that 2027 first is likely to be in the 20s.

Petracca trade

Petracca, 24, 28 and a 2026 2nd
for
7, 8, 37, 2026 1st and 2027 3rd

Similar to the Curnow deal, 2026 first is more of an upgrade than a straight swap. Value wise, you can view Dees as trading 24 their 2026 second for GC’s 2027 first.

So effectively Petracca and 28 for picks 7, 8 and a 2027 third.

Proposed Merrett trade

Merrett and a future 3rd
for
10, 22, 2026 1st and Hustwaite

The future 3rd pretty much cancels out Hustwaite (while overs. So it’s basically Merrett for 10, 22 and a 2026 first.

Conclusion

If you assume pick 22 this year is about the same value as a 2027 first (given the Tassie draft impact), that’s pretty comparable to the Curnow deal. However Blues did get the added value of Hayward.

Its also pretty close to the Petracca deal when you consider we didn’t have to give any second rounders back.

People are seriously underestimating picks between 10-30.

Langford pick 17

Jones pick 30

Caldwell pick 11

Hobbs pick 13

Redman pick 30

Kako pick 13

Duursma pick 18

Ridley pick 22

Hayes pick 25

McKay pick 21

Gresham pick 18

So we turned down the opportunity to draft 3 players of that quality to accelerate a rebuild. Sure you might pick Hobbs, Gresham and Jones but you could also pick Ridley, Kako and Duursma it’s up to the recruiters to get the picks right. Huge opportunity foregone.

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Operation strong arm Blues for 9.

We will bid at 5 or else…

Cop our 20s for your points. They end up gaining a free second rounder as part of this.

We Get something later back to help with our points.

We take 5 6 9 into first round.

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That’s someone working a deal on points.
I would have jumped at the Petracca deal.
5,6,7 and 8 - awesome.
Happy to give the seconds back

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I’m happy he is staying, Hawthorn can sulk all they want. Players need to learn that contacts matter. If you sign a 5 year deal you have to actually play the 5 years. Not sulk when things go wrong and bail. Also don’t care if we stick him in the VFL for 2 years.

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Would have been a bit awkward when Ridley wanted to go and we shut it down saying no you’re a required contracted player, then Merrett, all good you can go mate.

Club took a stance they absolutely were entitled to take. No one thinks we’re a pushover anymore. From that side of things, I’m fine with it. Can argue all day about the deal and best moves to attack the rebuild

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For you Zach

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I would agree that the Petracca deal is probably my preference. They Curnow deal seems huge initially, but when you look at it in detail, it isn’t as strong as it seems

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Yes.

You’re less likely to get 200 game superstars, but a long way from zero chance.

Plus there’s still lots of time to trade picks.

I’d be quite happy only taking that pick 10* to this draft, trading the rest into 26 or 27.

Spread the wins over 3 years.

(Plus I fully expect we’re in a better place to attract/chase players in 2027)

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I have total respect for the Club today. They stood by their posotion and held firm. We are talking about a 6 time B&F and Club Captain. You dont let that type of player leave for a couple of packets of chips and a VFL player in return. Sets the standrd for any other in contrcat player that they cant sook it up and walk.

Fark Whorethorn

Fark Mitchell

Fark anyone else that does’nt come to mind right now.

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they’re all much of a muchness.

The seconds that Melbourne have given back are of most value to GC only though. The draft is not wanted by many, so as far as a club actually having those picks, the picks in the 20s (like our ones) are not the same value as picks in the 20s in other draft years.

Yeah. I’m surprised people think the Hawks deal is well unders compared to those offers. It’s pretty similar

It’s not about points value though but rather the Petracca deal has more of what we would value which is access to elite talent.

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What do you mean by “access to elite talent”?

Picks 7 and 8. As opposed to 10 and 22. It’s genuinely more helpful for a rebuild.

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