US Politics Thread - Post Mueller Edition


#262

It’s insane.

I hope they are just indulging all the candidates (and their sponsors/supporters) this one time. I would not have anymore than 6 moving forward: Biden, Sanders, Warren, Harris, Buttigieg, and then one of O’Rourke / Booker / Gabbard.


#263

The introductions will take 30 min alone.

Purely based on cursory glancing of papers, would Biden, Sanders, Warren be the genuine runners for the nomination? I say this because they are the ones I know of. Or is one of the others a genuine chance to get up?


#264

Reckon they should just be running a Top 6 in the polls debate, then 7 & 7 of the rest separately.

Or just let the bottom 12 do 2 sets of 6 to get their platforms out there, and leave the front runners just do their own thing until the field thins out, or one of them slips out of the top 6 and has to join the rear guard themselves in debates, to try and regain a top spot.

This is just ridiculous.


#265

There is still 12mo to go but I doubt anyone outside of Biden, Sanders, Warren, or potentially Harris has a shot…


#266

Sanders alienates as many democrats as he attracts.

Biden is running on name recognition and memories of Obama. Has a long history of being a terrible campaigner.

Warren is running a good campaign after a lot of negative media at the start.

Of the rest…

Harris will struggle with the compromises you make as a prosecutor. Has a good chance.

Butig…egg egg… Mayor Pete has charisma but minimal experience. Talks about what his policies will feel like rather than details. Has a chance.

Beto has name recognition but hasn’t made much traction recently. Good chance of winning Texas if he runs. Maybe.

The rest of the field seem to be very long shots. The lead candidates will lose their position once the field narrows and standouts get better known.


#267

Dems need a candidate that can pull the Votes of white guys, older ones especially, away from Dump. Along with all the rusted on Dems and the majority of women that will no doubt vote their way again regardless of candidate, … that’s what will ensure them over the line.

In that light, as good as I think Warren is, … she won’t cut it, … and I’d have to say, neither will Bern or Harris IMO.

I reckon that’s why Bidens leading, … but I wish it was someone else, or he was 10 or 20 years younger, … or alternatively, Beto was 10 years further down the track right now.


#268

Would love to see Tulsi get up, but she is outside of a major city so no chance.

Sad


#269

This is my admittedly uninformed ‘gut’ read as well apart from the positive light - no women, no brown people, no soshulists, and my oh my no Mayor Petes. Biden will soil the bed so it’s Trump for the win followed by impeachment or brain death, then Gilead under that barely animated, possessed zipper doll Pence. Then it’s all over for all of us. Fark Carlton indeed.


#270

I think that is one argument on how to win, but there are two other proposed approaches as well:

  • Get out minorities, similar to what Obama achieved
  • Get out the base, similar to the 2018 mid-terms.

I think there are fair arguments those will be more successful than trying to bleed off Trump voters, and certainly there are candidates better positioned to achieve those plans than the one you suggested.

Personally, I’ve seen nothing to show it is possible to get the Trump voters, although it may be possible to depress his turnout for more moderate Republicans.

I think Biden’s leading because there is still a good chunk of older primary voters. I think he’ll fall over as people realise how out of touch he is, his gaffs ramp up, and people realise that his capacity to ignite the base is potentially limited.


#271

I agree with this.

I half think Biden is there just to focus the candidates that the number 1 priority is to beat Trump. Without him, it was a contest on who was the most progressive. He’s playing an important role, as it doesn’t matter what progressive policies you want in place if Trump wins.


#272

I agree in thinking that there are a number of routes to beating Trump, or a number of candidates that could. He has a rabid base that will excuse anything but that base is not enough for re-election.

If the Democrats are able to coalesce around their candidate and campaign well they’ll do well.


#273

I read an article a while back about a shift in favour of the Dems in terms of redrawing critical electoral boundaries after years of gerrymandering by the repubs, but not much recall in my old brain. DonMania might be better placed to explain this, it can have serious consequences at the box obviously. The US system is a deliberate mess i don’t pretend to understand but surely the incumbent with a stacked judiciary would have the upper hand in this regard?


#274

Oh, and for those who don’t know, the Dem debates are split between two groups of 10, taking place today and tomorrow. I think it was random ballot how they got split.


#275

The Yanks are going to vote in a female one day, so It may as well be Warren, though I would prefer Nancy Pelosi who at 80 next year is about the correct age. Warren is a bit young at 71.


#276

The GOP wants the Dems to select a fringe left candidate as it will push centrist voters to Trump.


#277

I think in that case the centre stays home.


#278

And their National convention is July 13–16, 2020.

That’s one hell of a long road just to be chosen.


#279

The whole country is setup to be exhausting.


#280

Beto dropping some Spanish

Instant meme


#281

There have been a few critical court wins for the Dems (in Virginia for one) to strike down ridiculous gerrymandering. But you are right. One of the biggest and most impactful achievements of Trump’s reign is the stacking of the judiciary at ALL levels (not just the Supreme Court) where lifetime appointments mean that they will resonate long after President Cheetos is gone.