So, given we’ve lost the last five games and dropped from third to ninth…
Below are the candidates to reach the final 8:
place - team - points - percentage - teams yet to play
1 - Rich - 52 - 170% - 5+14
2 - Case - 52 - 160% - 11+4+5
3 - Geel - 44 - 146% - 9+15+4
4 - BoxH - 40 - 127% - 12+2+3
5 - Will - 40 - 125% - 1+7+2
6 - Pies - 36 - 120% - 7+14+11
7 - Port - 36 - 108% - 6+5+8
8 - Dogs - 32 - 102% - 10+9+7
9 - Esgn - 28 - 122% - 3+8+13
10 - Nth - 28 - 84% - 8+12
(plus five no-hopers)
Norf are not a credible threat to us, because of that woeful percentage and given that they (and Richmond) have played an extra game. They can massively help us by beating Footscray, though.
- We win all three games: we’re in.
- We beat Footscray and either of Geelong or Fark Northern: we’re in unless (Footscray beat Norf and Port) AND (Port beat one of the two teams above them — I’m assuming we’d beat them on percentage) AND (Collingwood win a game — OK, that last one you can probably assume is happening).
- We lose to Footscray: we must win our two other games AND (Footscray must lose their two other games OR Port must lose all three games)
- We only beat Footscray: Footscray must lose to Port and Norf.
There are a few other fringe possibilities, but they’re very much that.
P.S. Fark Northern.
We’re gonna finish 9th in both leagues aren’t we?
Norf lead 34-18 at quarter time
16 of those 18 came very deep into Red Time
BOM says there was a decent breeze around 45 degrees across the ground to Norf’s end that quarter, but I didn’t see an overt effect on kicking either way.
We are gonna struggle fielding a side of 23 if we keep getting injuries
Maybe it is all part of Justin Crow’s grand plan to make a playing comeback
Compared to last night, if the VFL makes finals and the AFL doesn’t, we can add both LAVs, McNeice, Francis, Ridley, Green, and possibly Redman.
Footscray trail 45-62 at half-time
North get some late goals to hold onto the lead (12.12.84 leads 9.14.68). Only holding on by better conversion, though, and the Dogs will have a 3 goal wind in the last.
Tom Campbell looking proppy. Like Dickson, he needs to do the right thing by Essendon.
Ditto Dalgleish and Angus.
Ditto Nash Holmes.
Kicks a goal to put Norf 11 up at thirteen minutes into the last quarter.
FFS Gus. STAND DOWN!
(10 point margin with 10 minutes left)
Yay, North survive and win 111-91. This means:
- We beat Footscray and Fark Northern: we’re in, either seventh or eighth.
- We beat Footscray and lose to Fark Northern (!): we finish eighth unless Footscray beat Port Melbourne AND Port beat Williamstown. That’s three upsets needed to get us knocked out.
- We lose to Footscray: we’re out.
I suggest we should try to beat Footscray.
Yep, beating Footscray sounds like a good idea!
One requirement passed!
I might have some September football to look forward to. We’re now certain to play in Port Melbourne if we make finals, right? Enjoy watching footy there.
We play Fark Northern (who beat Sandy and Coburg the last two weeks, having come off a 91 point loss to Casey) at Windy Hill. So if we turn up mentally we should rout them.
Port and Footscray play each other.
North play Werribee, that awful team (85%) that beat us recently.
The three matches overlap time-wise, but keep it simple: win and we’re in. The teams to finish fifth and sixth are yet to be determined.
In terms of fixturing, I’m not sure what the VFL will do if Richmond finish top two, as Punt Road is presumably still an unsafe place to host a significant crowd. Casey or Geelong, the other two teams fighting for top two, wouldn’t have that problem.