I just donât believe this will happen âŚâŚtheyâre not that stupid to invade Taiwan
I agree, they wonât invade. But what they will do is progressively make Taiwanâs life harder and harder - more air incursions, deeper and deeper, missile exercises, a mini exercise based blockade here and there, growing in scope each time.
If China has a change of leadership, the attitude towards Taiwan could change. Ten years or so ago, China and Taiwan were allowing tourists into each otherâs territories.
Which is still happening . The tourism used to be diverted via Hong Kong, however direct flight started not long before COVID - There is massive Taiwanese investment in Mainland China.
In other news its Budget time next week in Hong Kong - There has been a massive push from all segments of society for the Government to introduce a third round of consumption vouchers. Even the Australian ICA is pushing for a consumption voucher - The push is because local people are now travelling en masse overseas, so not spending the money in HK while general tourism is still a trickle because of the mask mandate - Anyway the Government is giving away 500,000 free travel vouchers to visit HK - Remove the mask mandate and you will get tourists. My guess is the mask mandate will be removed next month before the HK Rugby Sevens.
Language is important when discussing China. The nuance is welcomed in the region. No one can make binary choices between the US and China. Or China and the West. Strategic equilibrium goes some way to acknowledging the need for the relationship and its importance in balancing economic prosperity, national security and social cohension.
Central casting in China has moved on from the attack dog wolf warrior bloke spokesman to a softly spoken personable young woman, who is nevertheless delivering a strong signal on Chinese policy, but not threatening in style.
When trying to predict China, think grey zone operations first and invasion third or forth.
Massive long duration military exercises that block all maritime trade and air approaches. Regular missile tests that fly over the island. Air incursions hourly. Fishing boat militia blocking maritime traffic. Hacking of infrastructure. Corruption of politicians and bureaucrats.
That will be the trend of the next few years.
I aske an Australian living in China about an invasion and he said there was no appetite for bloodshed especially after decades of âone China.â An invasion would be twisted as a defence against some US incursion or grey zone and no shots fired.
Defence has ramped up patrols on our northern borders.
Not the China threat, but those pesky boat people seeking asylum. Defence is supplementing Borderforce following the grant of residence to some on Temporary Protection visas.
Singapore sovereign wealth fund scaling back China investment citing leadership risks.
Fact.
Must have been fun juggling the seating arrangements at the Munich Security Conference ( run by McKinsey for a private think tank).
The Chinese rep going all wolf warrior and in a shouting match with Blinken on the balloons.
Taiwan invited rep watching from the sidelines.
Could you imagine the smell
Seating arrangements give me a brain aneurysm.