How is that done?
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Not officially, more a stepping back, as for instance when Xi sends his number two to meet Putin, they have not been photographed together for some timeā¦
China abstains in any UN or other international institutions condemning Russiaās invasion, as compared to a No vote. Its 12 point proposal was carefully worded.
Signals China Is sending and public statements denying it has supplied any military equipment to Russia.
I donāt think the no limits declaration had a formal bilateral status as such.
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China and Russia announce new āSome Limitsā policy
Beijing says āNo guarantee for old VPā
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Fairfax beating the drums of war, although the Rage headline is softer than the SMH āRed Alertā and its big red map.
While Keating gets an airing in the Oz talking it down.
Meanwhile, China the peacemaker hits out at US aggression. The Foreign Minister refers to an invisible hand stoking the conflict in Ukraine, to some, in line with a certain geopolitical agenda.
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Iām not going to bother reading the articles but Iām guessing itās about a potential war with China in which case Iād assume anythingās possible. I have long had the belief that any attempt by China to invade Taiwan will end up with us at war with them. Iām still not convinced that China will invade them anytime soon though
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One China policy would need to be carefully managed as mainland Chinese wonāt like Chinese/Taiwanese blood shed. The CCP will need to make it about US aggression.
Of course, now with grey zone tactics they could launch war without a shot fired.
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Keating is querying why it should be a given that Australia would go to war with China if China were to use force to take over Taiwan
I donāt know about war as such but Iād suspect we would have some military involvement and provide some form of assistance to Taiwan
I would hope that even if we have no military involvement we would would have drastic sanctions against China and cut ties with China in much the same way as we are treating Russia.
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Russia has never been a significant trading partner with Australia.
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It shouldnāt matter how big of a trading partner China are. I would hope that all bets are off if China invades Taiwan and that we would cut all ties with them
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This is easier said than done and I agree with the sentiment. We have a large Australian/Chinese population so we would need to carefully manage our social cohesion policies. Cutting off all economic trade would be a very testing of our economic resiliency and the CCP will unleash cyber attacks etc against us.
Are we as a nation prepared for the response? What if the US elects Trump next year? Do we have guaranteed security and economic support?
I think there are multiple layers to unpeel before we try for a binary response.
I do agree with the sentiment.
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For many commodities, the backbone of our exports, Australia ranks low on production while among the top world exporter of a range of products. Our producers and related industries depend on the export market to survive.
What proportion goes to China and what are the alternative markets
Now, what is our dependence on China for imports of certain products and what are the alternative sources of supply if sanctions were to apply swiftly?
If China invade Taiwan itāll put a lot of technology on halt.
Itās going to be next to impossible to get microchips out of Taiwan.
The cost of any kind of electronical equipment is going to skyrocket in such a case.
Sanctions on China in such an event will further push costs up.
Itāll put China back quite a bit but also put a strain on countries as well. There will be a lot of public backlash as lower income families are already doing it hard as it is.
Iām not sure China will invade Taiwan. China have too much to lose right now. But also, they can really cause everyone else some pain if they do try it. It might weirdly be the best time to try and attack rather than wait another 5 to 10 years.
I donāt think thry could attack now because their economy isnāt as strong as it was.
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Bretton Woods is effectively dead. China/BRICS and the US/West are fighting for a seat at the new multipolar world. Iraq doesnāt use the USD anymore and now uses Yuan. Many other critical countries do the same (Saudis etc). US/West still think that the unipolar world exists but the reality is that itās dead. There are many geopolitical examples of that. BRICS can also operate entirely independent to the West with a reserve currency in place (and hence the lack of economic damage to Russia from the West bloc-led sanctions). At any rate, the West have a pretty ā ā ā ā seat at the new multipolar world. Pains me to say it but theyāve squandered opportunities to improve their position because they/US want to perpetuate a system (understandably) that exclusively benefits them, IMO anyway.
Before Chinaās economic reforms, a fair amount of trade went through Hong Kong, though holes in the so called silk net, before Britain lowered the flag.
Hong Kong continues to have autonomy in trade policy, while its political independence has been constantly eroded.
Why would it be in Chinaās interest to take over every aspect of the Taiwan economy, which is beneficial to China currently?
And how could China completely control Taiwan politically, a different kettle of fish from Hong Kong?
As you noted , grey zone tactics, as some have cast Russiaās annexation of Crimea.
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China continues to lobby Saudi Arabia to use the yuan in oil/gas trade.
Iraq only recently allowed trade in the yuan, less than a month ago, for the purposes of financing imports from China because of dollar shortages.
Yep and it will continue to happen. China/BRICS are winning.
BRICS is an emerging trading group, sitting between developed and developing/least developed. Itās not a political grouping, they all have different political alliances.
China is the one with the economic muscle.
India has the capacity to compete against China in a number of sophisticated sectors and export areas. It has a huge pharmaceutical manufacturing industry.
Itās not on song with China on security matters. Itās a Quad member.
Lula is a different animal from Bolsonaro in Brazil