I was young and innocent back then, and my Boss told me if the Japanese Gentlemen wanted to visit a brothel then we would pay. No Company Credit Cards back then, but he gave me a wad of CabCharge dockets to use. Sure enough, those places with the red light on the door took CabCharge. Suppose it was a type of ride !
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China restricts mineral exports to US defense companies
China imposed restrictions on the export of minerals for the US defense industry.
Fox News reported on this.
China is taking a new step in its shadowy confrontation with the United States by restricting the export of minerals, including antimony, which is vital for the US defense industry as a fireproofing component.
According to experts, such a move by China could significantly increase the cost of equipment that uses fire retardant components in the defense sector.
AIM-9X air-to-air missile under the wing of an F-16 fighter. Photo credits: Posterazzi
The little-known metal antimony is used in ammunition, infrared missiles, nuclear weapons, night vision goggles, batteries, and photovoltaic equipment.
China produced nearly half of the world’s antimony last year. The limits, which kicked in on Sunday, apply to six antimony-related products, including antimony ore, antimony metals, and antimony oxide.
The U.S. consumed some 22,000 tons of antimony last year. According to the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), China accounted for 63% of U.S. antimony metal and oxide imports last year. The next largest supplier, Belgium, offered some 8%.
The material is being restricted “in order to safeguard national security and interests and fulfill international obligations such as non-proliferation,” the Chinese Ministry of Commerce stated.
Training launch of the PAC-2/GEM-T anti-aircraft missile (against ballistic missiles) at a test site in the United States
It should be noted that due to the strained relations between China and the United States, both countries are trying to prevent the defense industry from increasing production of strategically important weapons.
In addition to the United States, countries with close economic ties with China play an important role, as they understand the importance of stopping trade with China in important resources and equipment.
As previously reported, Chinese defense companies are facing problems exporting their weapons due to the high competition in the global market.
Militarnyi recently discussed China pushing Russia out of the African arms market and is increasing the supply of military equipment to African countries.
https://mil.in.ua/en/news/china-restricts-mineral-exports-to-us-defense-companies/
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Wikipedia suggesting we (and, not listed, South Africa) may get some more business from this.
Antimony mining in 2022
| Country | Tonnes | % of total |
|---|---|---|
 China |
60,000 | 54.5 |
 Russia |
20,000 | 18.2 |
 Tajikistan |
17,000 | 15.5 |
 Myanmar |
4,000 | 3.6 |
 Australia |
4,000 | 3.6 |
| Top 5 | 105,000 | 95.5 |
| Total world | 110,000 | 100.0 |
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Antimony shares have been booming in Australia. Currently we have only one producer, at Costerfield as a by product of gold mining. It’s exported to China as a raw material for processing, with some minor exports of processed product as waste and scrap elsewhere.
Curiously, Australia, a very small producer, ranks as a leading exporter of antimony as a raw material commodity because most producing countries restrict exports.
There are a few companies engaged in developing production in other locations in Australia.
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I’m very curious about what processing infrastructure is outside of China. What tends to happen is the world mines rare earths to diversify away from China, then sends it all to China for processing.
We may be in a situation where China has the lions share of the high end processing and there literally isn’t an alternative supply chain.
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It’s classified as a critical mineral which gets some special focus in commodity studies.
There is a fair amount of detail on antimony on the Geoscience Australia site, as well as on the UN Comtrade data base ( a source drawn on by the World Bank and other international bodies, including by private sector share advisory companies).
I followed antimony a bit because my family came from Costerfield and because of some commodity trade work.
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I completely failed earlier to get a handle on processing, what’s your take on that side of the supply chain?
I haven’t gone to that depth. The Geoscience site has links to studies on the supply chain. You could contact Geoscience to check on its own holdings on the supply chain
Perhaps the most recent is a Japanese study - The Gepolitics of Critical Minerals in the Supply Chain - available on the Jstor site.
You might also want to check US Defence type sites, given its use as a fire retardant among other things.
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On critical mineral supply chains, the Biden-Harris Administration released a FACT SHEET on further action to strengthen and secure critical minerals in the supply chain.
It’s up on the White House site
It’s most focused on the Chyna threat and batteries. Antimony gets a small reference in regard to a gold/antimony project in Idaho, which is awaiting an environment impact report.
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If US can’t go it alone on the supply chain, it friendshores, to use a media term, but doesn’t appear to encourage offshore friend investment.
Critical minerals got a mention on the ABC news today, in the context of Chalmers visit to Beijing.
There was a reference to critical minerals featuring on the Australia/US agenda as a potential issue for cooperation in the global arena.
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Elite manufacturing
Chinese ship- builder, “I wonder what this rubber plug in the bottom of the boat is for?”
Xi vows ‘reunification’ with Taiwan on eve of Communist China’s 75th birthday
Updated 2:06 AM EDT, Tue October 1, 2024
Chinese leader Xi Jinping speaks during a National Day reception on the eve of the 75th anniversary of the People’s Republic of China at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing on September 30, 2024.
Hong Kong
CNN
—
Chinese leader Xi Jinping reiterated his pledge to achieve “reunification” with Taiwan on the eve of Communist China’s 75th birthday, as Beijing flexed its military might in the run-up to the national holiday.
At a state banquet celebrating the founding of the People’s Republic on Monday, Xi used his address to underscore his resolve to achieve the “complete reunification of the motherland.”
“It’s an irreversible trend, a cause of righteousness and the common aspiration of the people. No one can stop the march of history,” he told the thousands in attendance at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing, according to state-run news agency Xinhua.
China’s ruling Communist Party claims Taiwan as its own, despite having never controlled it, and has vowed to “reunify” with the self-governing democracy, by force if necessary.
But many people on the island view themselves as distinctly Taiwanese and have no desire to be part of Communist China.
The two sides have been ruled by separate governments since 1949, after the end of the Chinese civil war. The communists took power in Beijing and founded the People’s Republic of China on October 1, 1949, while the defeated nationalists fled to Taiwan, moving the seat of the Republic of China from the mainland to Taipei.
Successive Chinese leaders have vowed to one day take control of Taiwan, but Xi, China’s most assertive leader in decades, has ramped up rhetoric and aggression against the democratic island – fueling tension across the strait and raising concerns for a military confrontation.
"Taiwan is China’s sacred territory. Blood is thicker than water, and people on both sides of the strait are connected by blood,” Xi told the banquet attended by more than 3,000 people, including officials, retired party leaders and foreign dignitaries.
He also called for deeper economic and cultural exchanges across the Taiwan Strait and promotion of “spiritual harmony of compatriots on both sides.”
“(We must) resolutely oppose ‘Taiwan independence’ separatist activities,” Xi said.
Beijing has labeled Taiwan’s President Lai Ching-te a “dangerous separatist,” and tensions have ratcheted up since Lai’s inauguration in May, during which he called on China to cease its intimidation of Taiwan.
Taiwan officials say Beijing has intensified military activities around the island in recent months, including drills in May that the Chinese military said were designed to test its ability to “seize power” over the island.
On Sunday, Taiwan’s Defense Ministry said it was on alert after detecting “multiple waves” of missile firing deep in inland China.
The missiles were fired by the Chinese People’s Liberation Army’s Rocket Force in the inland regions of Inner Mongolia, Gansu, Qinghai and Xinjiang, the ministry said in a statement, adding that Taiwan’s air defense forces have “maintained a high level of vigilance and strengthened their alert.”
It comes just days after China fired an intercontinental ballistic missile into the Pacific Ocean for the first time in 44 years, in a rare public test that analysts said was meant to send a message to the United States and its allies amid heightened regional tensions.
The issue of Taiwan has become a major point of contention between China and the US, which maintains close but informal relations with Taipei and is bound by law to supply the island with weapons to defend itself.
On Sunday, US President Joe Biden approved an additional $567 million in military support for Taiwan in the largest aid package America has granted the island. The funding will cover defense articles as well as “military education and training,” the White House said in a statement.
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We can breathe easy this week, Golden Week holiday.
Next week, however…
this is the main hope I think for a non-military settlement.
if…that should be IF, China stopped firing missiles to scare the Taiwanese independence movement, China and Taiwan could become extremely close (again) economically, culturally, ethnically so that the benefits of the relationship outweigh the consequences of military action.
This is unlikely whilst China holds the ambition to control all traffic along the Taiwan Strait, but that problem should be solved internationally by the ROW telling China - sorry no farkin way, that’s forever an international waterway.
The ambiguity re Taiwan’s national status needs to be resolved one day, but it doesn’t need to be now, and polls suggest the Taiwanese agree to maintain the status quo, as (maybe?) it reduces the likelihood of imminent Chinese military action.
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It appears we’ve all got until 2027… I hope the Bombers can snare a premiership before the damn world ends.
China Is ‘Working Furiously’ to Grow Its Fleet Ahead of a 2027 War—And That’s a Clear Threat to America
American intelligence suggests the Chinese Navy is preparing to invade Taiwan by 2027—and defense analysts aren’t so sure the U.S. Navy could stop it.
Published: Oct 04, 2024 4:28 PM EDT
It’s become apparent that a trade war may not be the only kind of conflict China plans on waging against the United States. In the wake of reports that the Chinese Navy is preparing to invade Taiwan by 2027, the U.S. Navy has been ramping up the readiness of its Battle Force, which has not seen major combat in decades.
In spite of being larger and more technologically advanced, the U.S. naval fleet may be in trouble. On the other side of the Pacific, China has ushered in an unprecedented naval expansion that makes it a real challenger to America’s tradition of naval dominance. Here’s how the two countries stack up, and what military strategists think will be the tipping point in a potential wartime scenario.
How Likely Is a U.S.-China War?
In 2021, Adm. Phil Davidson, head of U.S. Indo-Pacific Command, testified to Congress that China was preparing to invade Taiwan by 2027. Such a move would place the United States and the People’s Republic of China on a collision course, given that the United States has extended security guarantees to the island, also known as the Republic of China. In 2022, President Biden stated unequivocally that the U.S. would defend Taiwan against a Chinese invasion.
While U.S. intelligence did not confirm definitive plans from the People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) to launch this attack, it appears the Chinese Navy is gathering the resources to do so. That knowledge spurred U.S. military brass to take counteraction. The “Davidson Window,” as the period after 2027 became known as, quickly became a major milestone in U.S. military planning. Both the U.S. Navy and PLAN are racing to be ready for a war that could come in as little as three years. And in an era where it takes five years to build an aircraft carrier, three years is not much time at all.
Comparing Forces: The U.S. Navy vs PLAN
China has been steadily expanding its fleet, but strength can be about more than just numbers. Here’s what we know about how its forces compare to America’s.
Aircraft Carriers
The most powerful ships of the U.S. and Chinese navies are aircraft carriers. The U.S. Navy fields a total of 11 carriers, with six assigned to the Pacific Fleet. Each is equipped with an air wing of more than 70 aircraft, consisting of 40–44 F/A-18E/F Super Hornet and F-35C strike fighters, backed up by E/A-18G Growler electronic attack aircraft, E-2D Hawkeye airborne early warning and control aircraft, and up to a dozen utility and anti-submarine helicopters. The result is a highly capable aerial fighting force supported by more than 100 years of institutional experience operating aircraft carriers.
Currently, China operates three carriers: Liaoning , Shandong , and Fujian , armed with Shenyang J-15 “Flying Shark” strike fighters. These early ships are both combat vessels and a learning experience for the PLAN. “After commissioning the Liaoning in September 2012, China has embarked on a long march of prototypes, aiming for something that may match America’s supercarriers,” says naval analyst Craig Hooper of The Themistocles Advisory Group, which focuses on national security. “Once the design is settled, China will likely pump out carbon copies quickly, expanding their fleet.” This would likely leave China with at least five carriers, and perhaps as many as six.
China’s carriers can only host about two-thirds the number of aircraft as their American counterparts, however, and PLAN is still developing the aircraft that would make up a well-balanced carrier air wing. “While China may have a few big, modern aircraft carriers in the fleet by 2027, the aircraft aboard will still be finding their sea legs,” says Hooper. “The Chinese equivalent of a tightly integrated set of E/A-18G Growlers, E-2D Hawkeyes, and F-35s—necessary to understand the maritime battlespace—won’t be quite ready for prime time.”
Cruisers and Destroyers
The most numerous ships in both fleets are cruisers and destroyers, surface ships designed to escort larger ships, hunt submarines, or form surface action groups to aggregate offensive firepower. Cruisers and destroyers are usually armed with one or two guns, between 64 and 122 missile silos, helicopters, anti-submarine torpedoes, and close-in defensive weapon systems consisting of both missiles and guns.
The U.S. Pacific Fleet of 2027 will have approximately 52 cruisers and destroyers. The service is retiring its cruisers, which are worn out and in need of replacement after an average 30+ years of service. Cruisers hold a staggering 122 missile silos per ship, meaning that in their absence, the Navy will only have destroyers with 80–96 missile silos each. That number also assumes the Navy will replace each outgoing cruiser with a destroyer.
Each of the remaining Zumwalt- and Arleigh Burke-class destroyers are more capable than their Chinese counterparts, with 50 percent more missile silos per ship and the ability to conduct anti-surface, anti-submarine, anti-air, and even anti-satellite combat. The Pacific Fleet will also be home to two of the three Zumwalt-class stealth destroyers, Michael Monsoor and Lyndon Johnson, each armed with 12 hypersonic missiles.
The PLAN has a similarly sized fleet, which according to the Pentagon’s 2023 report on Chinese military power stands at 50 surface ships, but less firepower overall. The ships include eight Renhai-class cruisers, each with 112 missile silos, and Type 052C and Type 052D guided missile destroyers, but each destroyer carries between 56 and 64 missile silos, fewer than their American counterparts. The weapons and sensors on these ships have also not been tested under combat conditions the way American systems have, whereas the latter have proven highly effective in recent actions in the Middle East against kamikaze drones, ballistic missiles, and cruise missiles.
Submarines
The U.S. Pacific Fleet’s submarine force will have about 23 submarines by 2027, including Los Angeles, Seawolf (all three), and *Virginia-*class nuclear-powered attack submarines. It also includes two guided missile submarines, Ohio and Michigan, each capable of carrying a staggering 154 Tomahawk land attack cruise missiles. The U.S. Navy is also building a new variant of the Virginia-class submarines, known as Block V, that can carry an additional 28 cruise missiles or a handful of Conventional Prompt Strike hypersonic weapons.
China, on the other hand, currently fields 53 nuclear and conventionally powered attack submarines. Chinese submarines are generally considered one or two generations behind their American counterparts, but thanks to the war in Ukraine, they are expected to catch up fast. Russia is trading military technology to China in return for logistical support for its war in Ukraine. Hooper believes this assistance will soon help China churn out advanced subs at a fast clip.
“By 2027,” Hooper says “[China] will be working furiously to appropriate Russian undersea know-how and integrate it all into their ongoing protoype and experimentation efforts. Again, it’ll be a race to see if China can find a base model it is happy with, so it can really apply its industrial strength in modernizing the fleet.”
The Deciding Factor in War
Of course, the U.S. Navy has one other advantage in such a conflict: “America will not fight China alone,” says Hooper. Allies including Japan, South Korea, and Australia will pose serious challenges for China at sea.
The Japan Maritime Self Defense Force has a fleet of 36 destroyers, including two destroyers, Izumo and Kaga, being refitted to operate F-35B Lightning II fighters. It also has a fleet of 24 diesel electric attack submarines. South Korea has a fleet of 23 attack submarines and 13 destroyers. Another important ally, Australia, has six submarines and three destroyers. Almost all of these ships, aircraft, and submarines use American weapons, sensors, and communication networks, increasing their interoperability with the U.S. Navy.
Another benefit of America’s alliances is a network of ports and bases across the region that can support American ships in wartime. “Right now, America’s Pacific allies are positioning themselves to support forward deployment of American naval units. In Australia, with mutual collaboration enhanced through the AUKUS (America-United Kingdom Australia) agreement, Australian workers will help keep U.S. subs forward deployed,” Hooper says. “Japan has taken the lead on providing superior maintenance and support for forward-deployed U.S. ships. Both countries could support the U.S. fleet in times of increased tension.”
China, on the other hand, has just one ally worth mentioning in the Asia-Pacific region: Russia. Russia’s fleet has declined dramatically since the end of the Cold War, its weapons, sensors, and networks are incompatible with Chinese ones, and its ports are far from the front line. Sino-Russian cooperation is relatively recent and limited to elementary sailing exercises. “Russia and China may sail together, but they don’t fight together, and, by 2027, they are unlikely to have forged a truly collaborative warfighting force at sea,” says Hooper.
Ultimately, there’s reason to be optimistic about U.S. naval defenses in spite of criticism. While the number of American ships has remained fairly flat even while China’s fleet multiplies, we have other tactical advantages. America’s technological edge is a qualitative one that makes each Navy warship superior to its Chinese counterpart. And America’s appeal to other countries—based on common values and common interests—means it has friends in its corner where China does not.
In short, don’t count America out yet.
Kyle Mizokami is a writer on defense and security issues and has been at Popular Mechanics since 2015. If it involves explosions or projectiles, he’s generally in favor of it. Kyle’s articles have appeared at The Daily Beast, U.S. Naval Institute News, The Diplomat, Foreign Policy, Combat Aircraft Monthly, VICE News , and others. He lives in San Francisco.
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