Well they say that if you ask enough people to guess how many jelly beans there are in a jar and take the average guess it will give you the exact number of jelly beans there are in the jar.
I'm not sure if the same principle applies to AFL phantom drafts but I thought I would apply a similar principle by aggregating the guesses of 6 phantom drafts I know of.
Emma Quayle, Cal Twomey, Knightmare (big footy), HS, Sen, ABC,
Emma Quayle
1 ST KILDA: PADDY McCARTIN
2 MELBOURNE: ANGUS BRAYSHAW
3 MELBOURNE: CHRISTIAN PETRACCA
4 GWS: JARROD PICKETT
5 COLLINGWOOD: JORDAN DE GOEY
6 GWS: PAUL AHERN
7 GWS: CALEB MARCHBANK
8 GOLD COAST: PETER WRIGHT
9 COLLINGWOOD: DARCY MOORE
10 GEELONG: SAM DURDIN
11 WEST COAST: LIAM DUGGAN
12 RICHMOND: COREY ELLIS
13 FREMANTLE: JAKE LEVER
14 ADELAIDE: KYLE LANGFORD
15 GOLD COAST: NAKIA COCKATOO
16 NORTH MELBOURNE: DANIEL McKENZIE
17 ESSENDON: JAYDEN LAVERDE
18 SYDNEY: ISAAC HEENEY
19 CARLTON: LACHIE WELLER
20 ESSENDON: JARROD GARLETT
21 ST KILDA: HUGH GODDARD
<p> </p>
Cal Twomey
1 ST KILDA: PADDY McCARTIN
2 MELBOURNE: ANGUS BRAYSHAW
3 MELBOURNE: CHRISTIAN PETRACCA
4 GWS: JARROD PICKETT
5 COLLINGWOOD: JORDAN DE GOEY
6 GWS: PAUL AHERN
7 GWS: HUGH GODDARD
8 GOLD COAST: PETER WRIGHT
9 COLLINGWOOD: DARCY MOORE
10 GEELONG: SAM DURDIN
11 WEST COAST: LIAM DUGGAN
12 RICHMOND: COREY ELLIS
13 FREMANTLE: JAKE LEVER
14 ADEKAIDE: JAYDEN LAVERDE
15 GOLD COAST: NAKIA COCKATOO
16 NORTH MELBOURNE: LACHIE WELLER
17 ESSENDON: JARROD GARLETT
18 SYDNEY: ISAAC HEENEY
19 CARLTON: CALEB MARCHBANK
20 ESSENDON: TOUK MILLER
21 ST KILDA: ALEX NEAL BULLEN
<p> </p>
knightmare
1 ST KILDA: PADDY McCARTIN
2 MELBOURNE: ANGUS BRAYSHAW
3 MELBOURNE: CHRISTIAN PETRACCA
4 GWS: JARROD PICKETT
5 COLLINGWOOD: JORDAN DE GOEY
6 GWS: HUGH GODDARD
7 GWS: PAUL AHERN
8 GOLD COAST: LIAM DUGGAN
9 COLLINGWOOD: DARCY MOORE
10 GEELONG: PETER WRIGHT
11 WEST COAST: JAYDEN LAVERDE
12 RICHMOND: COREY ELLIS
13 FREMANTLE: SAM DURDIN
14 ADELAIDE: KYLE LANGFORD
15 GOLD COAST: CAELB MARCHBANK
16 NORTH MELBOURNE: JARROD GARLETT
17 ESSENDON: LACHLAN WELLER
18 SYDNEY: ISAAC HEENEY
19 CARLTON: JAKE LEVER
20 ESSENDON: NAKIA COCKATOO
21 ST KILDA: ALEX NEAL BULLEN
<p> </p>
HERALD SUN
1 ST KILDA: PADDY McCARTIN
2 MELBOURNE: ANGUS BRAYSHAW
3 MELBOURNE: CHRISTIAN PETRACCA
4 GWS: JARROD PICKETT
5 COLLINGWOOD: JORDAN DE GOEY
6 GWS: PAUL AHERN
7 GWS: CALEB MARCHBANK
8 GOLD COAST: PETER WRIGHT
9 COLLINGWOOD: DARCY MOORE
10 GEELONG: SAM DURDIN
11 WEST COAST: JAYDEN LAVERDE
12 RICHMOND: LIAM DUGGAN
13 FREMANTLE: JAKE LEVER
14 ADELAIDE: HUGH GODDARD
15 GOLD COAST: NAKIA COCKATOO
16 NORTH MELBOURNE: LACHIE WELLER
17 ESSENDON: COREY ELLIS
18 SYDNEY: ISAAC HEENEY
19 CARLTON: DANIEL MCKENZIE
20 ESSENDON: JARODD GARLETT
21 ST KILDA: TOM LAMB
<p> </p>
ABC
1 ST KILDA: CHRISTIAN PETRACCA
2 MELBOURNE: ANGUS BRAYSHAW
3 MELBOURNE: PADDY MCCARTIN
4 GWS: JARROD PICKETT
5 COLLINGWOOD: JAYDEN LAVERDE
6 GWS: JORDAN DE GOEY
7 GWS: JAKE LEVER
8 GOLD COAST: LIAM DUGGAN
9 COLLINGWOOD: DARCY MOORE
10 GEELONG: PETER WRIGHT
11 WEST COAST: NAKIA COCKATOO
12 RICHMOND: LACHIE WELLER
13 FREMANTLE: HUGH GODDARD
14 ADELAIDE: SAM DURDIN
15 GOLD COAST: KYLE LANGFORD
16 NORTH MELBOURNE: PAUL AHERN
17 ESSENDON: JARROD GARLETT
18 SYDNEY: ISAAC HEENEY
19 CARLTON: COREY ELLIS
20 ESSENDON: CALEB MARCHBANK
<p>21 ST KILDA: TOM LAMB</p>
<p> </p>
<p> </p>
SEN
1 ST KILDA: PADDY McCARTIN
2 MELBOURNE: CHRISTIAN PETRACCA
3 MELBOURNE: ANGUS BRAYSHAW
4 GWS: JARROD PICKETT
5 COLLINGWOOD: JORDAN DE GOEY
6 GWS: CALEB MARCHBANK
7 GWS: HUGH GODDARD
8 GOLD COAST: PETER WRIGHT
9 COLLINGWOOD: DARCY MOORE
10 GEELONG: SAM DURDIN
11 WEST COAST: JAYDEN LAVERDE
12 RICHMOND: COREY ELLIS
13 FREMANTLE: JAKE LEVER
14 ADELAIDE: KYLE LANGFORD
15 GOLD COAST: LIAM DUGGAN
16 NORTH MELBOURNE: NAKIA COCKATOO
17 ESSENDON: PAUL AHERN
18 SYDNEY: ISAAC HEENEY
19 CARLTON: LACHIE WELLER
20 ESSENDON: JARROD GARLETT
21 ST KILDA: ALEX NEAL BULLEN
<p> </p>
The highest frequencies were as follows. As both Melbourne and GWS had consecutive picks I treated there frequencies as interchangable
HIGHEST FREQUENCY
1 ST KILDA: PADDY McCARTIN 5
2&3 ANGUS BRAYSHAW & CHRISTIAN PETRACCA 5
4 GWS: JARROD PICKETT 6
5 COLLINGWOOD: JORDAN DE GOEY 5
6&7 GWS PAUL AHERN 4 & CALEB MARCHBANK/HUGH GODDARD 3
8 GOLD COAST: PETER WRIGHT 4
9 COLLINGWOOD: DARCY MOORE FS
10 GEELONG: SAM DURDIN 4
11 WEST COAST: JAYDEN LAVERDE 3
12 RICHMOND: COREY ELLIS 4
13 FREMANTLE: JAKE LEVER 4
14 ADELAIDE: KYLE LANGFORD 3
15 GOLD COAST: NAKIA COCKATOO 3
16 NORTH MELBOURNE: LACHIE WELLER 2
17 ESSENDON: JARROD GARLETT 2
18 SYDNEY: ISAAC HEENEY ACADEMY
19 CARLTON: LACHIE WELLER 2
20 ESSENDON: JARROD GARLETT 3
21 ST KILDA: ALEX NEAL BULLEN 3
<p> </p>
I think it's notable at this point how uncertain it becomes from North Melbourne through tour last pick
I was thinking that I really rate Emma Quayle and Cal Twomey and I would imagine that the rest are to a degree formulated by group think. So if we gave those 2 experts a weighted frequency of 2 this would alter the frequencies in the following way
WEIGHTED FREQUENCY
1 ST KILDA: PADDY McCARTIN 7
2&3 ANGUS BRAYSHAW & CHRISTIAN PETRACCA 7
4 GWS: JARROD PICKETT 8
5 COLLINGWOOD: JORDAN DE GOEY 7
6&7 GWS PAUL AHERN 6 & CALEB MARCHBANK/HUGH GODDARD 4
8 GOLD COAST: PETER WRIGHT 6
10 GEELONG: SAM DURDIN 4
11 WEST COAST: LIAM DUGGAN 4
12 RICHMOND: COREY ELLIS 4
13 FREMANTLE: JAKE LEVER 6
14 ADELAIDE: KYLE LANGFORD 4
15 GOLD COAST: NAKIA COCKATOO 5
16 NORTH MELBOURNE: LACHIE WELLER 3
17 ESSENDON: JARROD GARLETT 3
19 CARLTON: LACHIE WELLER 3
20 ESSENDON: JARROD GARLETT 4
21 ST KILDA: ALEX NEAL BULLEN 4
<p> </p>
There is a bit of uncertainty about who GWS will take apart from Ahern (i.e. Goddard or Marchbank). Hard also to say who Carlton will pick up. We look destined in the eyes of the experts to pick Garlett up either at our first or second. But the next pick is to varied to see a consensus.