Our form has dropped off a cliff the last month. Is it:
- due to the ASADA investigation sapping morale
- a continuation of a long-term trend and symptomatic of our fitness levels
- because our game plan is physically demanding and not sustainable over a full season
Over the past three years we have looked like world-beaters early, before form dropping away markedly. In 2011 and 2012, injuries have hit hard and been a major contributor to our form slide. This season we have had a very good run with injury, yet the trend continues. Though an injury to Watson did hurt. Unlike the previous two seasons, we have had the distraction of the ASADA investigation instead.
The possibility that Premiership points would be taken away would have to affect motivation levels. If we are to escape that penalty this season, we have already won enough games to guarantee a finals spot, further eroding motivation. The optimist in me says that now that it is likely that we will be participating in finals, motivation to perform will return as players battle it out for a place in the best 22. The pessimist says that the damage has been done already, and that our form drop has been so significant that there isn't enough time to turn it around and play a meaningful part in September.
Looking at the role that fitness levels have to play, and demands that our game plan place on the players, another trend is that each year under Hird we have managed to get further into the season before the form crash. This suggests that while our fitness base hasn't been substantial enough to get us through a full season, there has been incremental improvement each year. If the trend continues, by 2014 we should be able to sustain form for a full season and approach finals with a full head of steam.
All of these factors, and probably others too, have contributed to our form crash. But what factor has played the biggest part, and is there time to turn it around? Can't say I have a clue myself.