Why we are we being overrun?

Yesterday’s capitulation can be looked at as a once off with exacerbating circumstances - no pre-season match practice for 13 of the players, losing Myers in first few minutes - and those circumstances are true looked at in isolation.

But yesterday’s capitulation was something - conceding large, seemingly match-winning leads, that has dangerously crept into our game since the beginning of last year as follows:

Round 1, 2014 versus North. Win by 39 points:

  • we kick the first 4 goals and look superb leading by 24 points 12:14 in Q1. Yet, almost exactly one quarter later we trail by a 1 point at 12:21 in Q2. We work our way back on top and finally win by 39 points. We are dominating the game in Q4, with massively more possessions than North yet struggle to be much more than 4 goals in fron until the last 10 minutes of the game. We dominate Clearances 52-30 and Contest Possession (CP) 154-110. The win should have been closer to 80 points+ with that type of domination.

Round 5 , 2014 versus St.Kilda. Lose by 16 points after being 18 points up at quarter time:

  • we look dominant against a young and very ordinary Saints team who waste what few chances they have, leading 5.0 to 1.6 at quarter time. After this time we play terrible, slow, sideways football and end up kicking only 4.11 in the last 3 quarters, losing eventually by 16 points, being outscored by one of the worst teams in the comp by 34 points in the last 3 quarters. We still win Clearances 34-30 and CP 122-120, Tackles 52-46 & other stats quite similar. One of the very, very few games where a team that wins Clearances, CP & Tackles actually loses the game.

Round 6, 2014 (Anzac Day) versus Collingwood. Lose by 23 points after leading by 37 points 2 minutes into Q2:

  • again, we look outstanding for one and a bit quarters leading 6.4 to 0.4 7:39 into Q2. We get steam rolled shortly thereafter, remarkably being level at halftime and not kicking a goal again until early in Q4. We end up kicking 2.8 in just under 3 quarters of football after being 6.4 at 2:09 in Q2. We have 27 more possession over all and dominate Clearances 49-39 but lose CP 153-148 and Tackles 98-81. Collingwood only kick 83 points for the game, 2 more than the Saints kicked the previous week. It is a mediocre score, yet we lose.

Round 7, 2014 versus WB. Win by 8 points after leading by 18 points 11:05 into Q1:

  • again, a very bright opening and we lead 19-1 11:05 into Q1. More slow, sideways ball movement. We do not kick another goal until early in Q3 just prior to which we are trailing 25-38. A young, struggling Bulldogs outfit kick 5 goals to none in the meantime; highlighting a 31 point turnaround. We eventually get back on top in Q3 and a solitary goal in a tense last quarter sees us home by 8 points, 73-65. After that bright opening we 7.10. We have 43 less possessions overall; losing clearances 34-37 and CP by a staggering 117-135. Importantly, we win the Tackle count 59-49. We played almost as poorly as we did against the Saints, but this time we get out of jail.

Round 8, 2014 versus BL. Hang on to win by 8 points after leading by 20 points late in Q2:

  • Brisbane start well but a 5 goal run from just before qtr time sees us leading by 20 points (40-20), 20:08 unto Q2. From this point we go missing as Brisbane kick the next 4 goals of the game until we kick our next goal late in Q3 to regain the lead 50-47. Brisbane goal again and lead at 3 qtr time. We kick the only 2 goals in a tense last qtr winning 9.11 to 8.9, having only kicked 3.7 after achieving a 20 point in Q2. We win the overall disposal count (more sideways, backwards ball use) by 27, 408-381. We also win Clearances 39-32 but get clobbered in CP 130-117. Importantly we win the Tackle count decisively 74-53. Watson, Goddard, Heppell all prominent, yet we only just win against a very average side.

Round 12, 2014 versus GWS. Steady to win by 16 points after coughing up a 20 point lead in Q3:

  • we look the better team all night and finally get to a 20 point lead (50-30) 6:32 into Q3. Yet, 11:46 into Q4 we only lead by a single point, 60-59, after a trio of GWS goals in very quick succession. We steady, kicking the next 3 goals gradually and win eventually 81-66. GWS have slightly more possessions overall but we win Clearances 37-31, CP 143-129 and halve tackles 62-62.

Round 13, 2014 versus Melbourne. Lose by a single point after dominating the game and leading by 33 points early in Q3:

  • a game that even Paul Roos said we should have won by 70-80 points. We are dominate everywhere but wasteful; throwing away a 33 point lead 3:35 in Q3, and allow a shocking Melbourne team to kick 8 of the 9 next goals to grab an 8 point lead midway through Q4 (Bellchambers missed a sitter early in Q4). Back to back Zaka goals (to cap a superb game) regains the lead but we manage to lose anyway 78-77. We comfortably win the overall possession count 369-352. We dominate Clearances 40-26, CP 151-119 and Tackles 83-74. I50’s are a staggering 69-36 in our favour. Even worse than the Saints performance. Like that game, another rare game when the team that wins all three of Clearances, CP & Tackles - significantly in this case - loses the game.

Round 14, 2014 versus Adelaide. Hang on to win by 9 points after leading by 36 points midway Q3:

  • we start superbly and get out out to 30+ point leads multiple time, leading by 36 points 15:01 into Q3. Adelaide then quickly ram on the next 5 goals and Jenkins is causing us huge problems, finishing game with a PB of 5. We steady, kick some excellent goals and get back to a 27 point lead 9:39 into Q4 but Adelaide keep coming and we struggle to close the game out or really put them to sword. We do enough to hang on and win by 9 points, 101-92. Overall possessions are almost line ball at 376-377 but we lose Clearances (Watson now sidelined) 35-39 and CP 139-147. Importantly we win the Tackle count 58-54. We also win I50s, 57-51.

Round 16, 2014 versus Port. Hang on to win by 2 points after leading by 24 points midway through Q3:

  • play some great football in a low scoring slog-fest at Adelaide Oval. Collier misses a simple set shot to have us leading by 24 points, 53-29 15:44 into Q3. Port then start to get on top and edge within 2 points during the last until a superb Heppell goal gives the breathing space we need before the inevitable charity decision gifts Port a goal right near the end and we hang on to win by 2 points, 62-60. Port end up belting us in over all possessions 374-322, Clearances 42-36 and CP 160-143. Importantly, our pressure is superb and we dominate the Tackle count 96-62.

Round 23, 2014 versus Carlton. Draw (90-90) after we lead by 30 points 12 minutes into Q3:

  • a bizarre game where we go in with only 2 tall defenders, gifting a hack like Matthew Watson 4 goals in a PB for him. We are asleep early and are a long way down in Q1 but then dominate the next 40 minutes to lead 76-46, 12:20 into Q3. We have missed goals we should have kicked but are in complete control. A terrible Baguley turnover at CHB seems to open the floodgates for the Blues and they start to come back. We only kick 2 goals for the rest of the game and are lucky to hang on for a draw to be honest with Carlton in complete control by the end. We win overall possessions comfortably 356-335. Blues win Clearances 38-33 but we win CP decisively 128-114. Blues win the Tackle count in a low intensity game 56-51.

Elimination Final, 2014 versus North. We lose by 12 points after dominating and leading by 33 points early in Q3:

  • we, and JD, start the game on fire but JD is a little wayward. Watson back but not kicking the ball. We are wasteful but dominant and North look lost in Q2 going backwards and sideays, remaining goalless that qtr. Yet, for all our dominance, we have only kicked 6 goals to halftime. A Chapman goal early in Q3 has us totally ascendant leading by 33 points with North having only kicked 2 goals to this point (sound familiar?). A Myers pass to CHF sees Goddard & Watson leave it for each other, the ball is swept away and suddenly North are running free towards goals and scoring at will. We now start to get belted around the stoppages with their sweeper at the back of the stoppage setting them up time and time again. Eventually, they win enough ball to easily win by 2 goals, 93-81. We end up just losing Clearances (after earlier dominating) 37-36, but win both CP (just) 141-138 and Tackles 64-57. Not as bad as the Saints & Demons losses, but close.

Round 1, 2015 versus Sydney. We lose by 12 points after leading by 41 points late in Q3 and remaining scoreless thereafter whilst Swans pile on 8 goals:

  • this one is still raw. In conditions that suit the home team to a tee we do a number on them early at their own game but stop to a walk and get overrun. Extenuating circumstances with interrupted pre-season and losing Myers very early. Players who were very good early start making skill/decision errors as a combination of fatigue and panic set in: Goddard, Colyer, Melksham. Daniher spends most of the game knocking the ball on in marking contests as he is being double-teamed as we play an extra at the stoppage and Swans play their spare back. Despite our early dominance, Sydney end up having 35 more possessions including 26 more CP. We win the Clearances slightly (57-53) and Tackles slightly more (77-71). The higher than usual Clearance and Tackle count are indicative of what a physical game Sydney likes playing and we cannot go with them the whole way; at least not with the extenuating circumstances we faced.

Sit back and think about it. 5 games where we have given up 30+ points leads for losses and a draw across 24 games: Collingwood (Anzac Day), Melbourne, Carlton, Nth Melb, Sydney. The latter two particularly galling as our good & very good opposition had only kicked 2 goals themselves to some point in Q3 and yet each won easily in the end by 12 points, running away.

Another game, against the Saints, where we lead by 18 points and lost by 16 despite winning the 3 most important stat indicators there are.

A clutch of other games where we have given up anything from an 18-30+ point lead and end up grinding out wins.

(Note that there are two games where we go on and have 50 point + wins in this period: Richmond (first time we played them & Collingwood (late in the year)).

So, we have lost/drawn 6 games when in seemingly winning positions out of 24. We win another 6 games after coughing up match winning leads but get back and win out of 24. We only go on and have the winning margins we should in 2 games.

Alternatively, we have set ourselves up for convincing wins in 58% of our last 24 games yet have only won convincing in 8% of these games and much less convincingly in 25% of these games. We “lose the unloseable” in a staggering 25% of these games.

Houston, we have a problem. A bad situation that keeps repeating isn’t bad luck, it’s bad football pure & simple.

In my view these are the problems we have to rectify based on observations of all the above:

  1. The game plan is flawed. The best teams - read Hawthorn, Sydney, Geelong - don’t play an extra at the stoppage. If the opposition does, they play their spare behind the ball down back - Brian Lake/Harris won a Norm Smith doing this as the Hawks won a flag. We are one of the few teams that insists on playing an extra at the stoppage. Yesterday was a classic example. We might win the Clearance stat but it leaves young, KP forwards, like Daniher & Carlisle continually having to beat an extra defender as the pressure from the opposition means the ball is not delivered expertly. This happened all game. How often did you see a spare assist Hurley against Franklin yesterday? Not once did I see it. Hurley was left to battle the most destructive KP forward in the game 1:1 (when Goddard, then Carlisle were sent back in Q4 it was as general spares) and did a herculean job. Did you ever really notice our extra at the stoppage? I didn’t. But I certainly noticed the Sydney spare double-teaming Daniher all game. The problem is exacerbated as Daniher is still 2+ years from having a power body to take on multiple KP defenders at once. Hird’s game plan almost ensures Daniher & Carlisle will struggle in big games as big games generally have higher stoppage and tackle counts meaning the ball does not come cleanly or quickly into the forward line anyway. Hird said this week he doesn’t know if he’ll make a good coach. Well he won’t if he persists with this game plan as it doesn’t work. The stats prove it. The game plans of the best teams prove it. Yesterday proved it. The spare back is the #1 reason why scoring is much lower the last couple of years than previously.

  2. Mental stamina. This one I believe will correct itself gradually over the season. You only have so much mental strength. The players have been using vast reservoirs of it off the field staying unbelievably strong in the face of the ASADA saga, leaving little in reserve for match day. As the saga draws to a close now (regardless of ASADA appealing) the players will start to release more & more mental stamina for game day.

  3. Lack of X Factor. Team selection looks too “meat & potatoes” to me. In Q4 we badly needed a Dempsey, Edwards, McKenna (when he is ready) type to take the game on and run the lines and excite & energise their teammates. We have virtually eliminated that type of player from team selection. We need one of these types playing every week, especially as a sub to provide spark if the tide is turning late in Q3/early Q4 as it seems too in so many of these losses. Again, this is a test for Hird the coach. He needs to be play less safe at team selection and seek to inject a game changer in the 22 every week; if nothing else than for insurance when the game plan is not working (which is often as the stats indicate).

Apologies for the long post. But we cannot allow ourselves to become comfortable with “heroic” losses when they happen so often from seemingly unloseable positions.

Something has to change and it has to change quickly, around game plan and team selection, if we are to drive deep into September.

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I dont understand the role that Ambrose performs - It's not necessary for a forward to effect 11 tackles ...
I think with the new interpretation of holding the ball that tackling is very very important. In years past you were not rewarded for a good tackle (heck making a good tackle on to have the player drop the ball and spill away to his team mate was even a disadvantage sometimes). A good tackle is now being rewarded.

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People have mentioned the lack of an effective forward line, the absence of X-factor players and a lack of mental toughness. All are valid.

I don’t know why supporters on this forum, and apparently the coaches and selectors as well, continue to think that Jake Carlisle is or will become an effective forward. He simply isn’t. He’s played two good games in the forward line and about ten times as many ineffective ones. He doesn’t make himself a target. He does not make play. He’s a great defender and a poor forward, and so long as we continue to construct the forward line around him we will struggle. Daniher is a good and effective forward and he’s getting better. Ambrose has everything that he needs to be a star, but he gets little of the ball and drops marks or fumbles far too often on the few occasions when he has clear opportunities.


Maybe because 5 games ago he kicked 8 and 6 games ago he broke the club record for marks in a game???
Just a thought.

I thought we were known last year for our bursts of play where we scored quickly. Commentators used to mention it quite a bit.

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Maybe that's a hint. Maybe, Ambrose would be better down back, and Gwilt forward.

The only thing the backline needs is more drive. Players who can clear the area like Piggy does & sometimes Dempsey. I’d like to see BJ spend more time at halfback in a similar role to Hodge. He’s not a centre bounce mid, his hands are not quick enough. He reads the play extremely well, is strong overhead & usually one of our best kicks. Ambrose down back would be a poor mans piggy I think. Can’t say I’ve really seen much of Gwilt as a forward but I reckon he won’t get many games unless we have injuries. Are they playing him forward in the VFL? He played back in the NAB so it doesn’t look like we drafted him as a forward.

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I dont understand the role that Ambrose performs - It's not necessary for a forward to effect 11 tackles ...
I think with the new interpretation of holding the ball that tackling is very very important. In years past you were not rewarded for a good tackle (heck making a good tackle on to have the player drop the ball and spill away to his team mate was even a disadvantage sometimes). A good tackle is now being rewarded.

The problem, as always though will be the ones that they should pay but don’t.

As always they will miss the most horrendously obvious call that should go in our favour.

maggots.

Question for the board.

Are we being too defensive all the time?

Reason I ask is that we never seem to pile on big runs of goals. One thing about having a defensive game style is that you can stifle the attack a bit. Which for the most part is the way you want to play.

But quite often we get a dominant period on the inside through Watson and Co yet it never translates. Once we get 1-2 goals and we see these guys are getting on top, should we be looking at a period of throwing all caution out the window and have a real period of slamming on the scoreboard pressure. Then if they get one back, go lockdown for a bit.

As much as we got on top in the first half (wet day so probably not the best example) we didn’t bury them. Another 3-4 at half time and it would have been done and dusted.

We may have been over run in some games last year, but I don’t think that has any bearing on this season whatsoever.

In relation to the weekend, I think Hurls hit the nail on the head with the physicality aspect over 4 quarters. IMO missing the NAB cup definitely limited our preparation for the season - but not in terms of running fitness.

The players can run and train to cater for the burst and endurance running required during games, but running for 120 minutes and taking the hits and bumps of an AFL contest along the way? A whole other story. The game being played in wet conditions would’ve only increased the physicality of the game and resulted in the players becoming more tired as the game went on.

It isn’t like we couldn’t match them physically early on - we smashed them in the contests only to tire later.

I’m glad we’ve got Sydney and the Hawks first up. It will fast track our preparations as they are tough battle hardened sides and hopefully we’ll be cherry ripe for round 3.

Ironically, the blues are playing West Coast in Perth, so chances are we’ll both be looking for our first win of the year. Bring it on.

Just another point to reinforce the OP of our KP forwards (or in fact any forward) being forced to compete in marking contests by knocking the ball on because they are outnumbered:

We took only 1 mark I50 on Saturday the lowest of any team in Round 1. Even allowing for the conditions that is a very poor return. We cannot assume Cooney & Melksham & co are going to kick goals out of their backside every week to be competitive.

We need a game plan and ball movement that supports & creates genuine marking opportunities for our forward, especially the KPs.

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People have mentioned the lack of an effective forward line, the absence of X-factor players and a lack of mental toughness. All are valid.

I don’t know why supporters on this forum, and apparently the coaches and selectors as well, continue to think that Jake Carlisle is or will become an effective forward. He simply isn’t. He’s played two good games in the forward line and about ten times as many ineffective ones. He doesn’t make himself a target. He does not make play. He’s a great defender and a poor forward, and so long as we continue to construct the forward line around him we will struggle. Daniher is a good and effective forward and he’s getting better. Ambrose has everything that he needs to be a star, but he gets little of the ball and drops marks or fumbles far too often on the few occasions when he has clear opportunities. The smalls are better, but with only one effective tall forward we have a problem. And before anybody says it, Bellchambers is not the answer. He’s a ruckman and he can drift forward and take a mark like many other ruckmen; but as a forward he does not have the necessary pace or mobility. We have potentially two talls in the backline who might make good forwards: Hurley, of course, who does all the things up forward that Carlisle doesn’t and who in my opinion should go back to CHF where he belongs; and Hooker, who is the sort of player who can play anywhere, but he would need a prolonged stint at the Matthew Lloyd Goalkicking Academy before he moved forward.

Lack of X-factor. The first thing I thought when I saw the team for Saturday was, Where’s the pace? Colyer, yes; just possibly Cooney; but otherwise nada. As somebody said above, it was a very meat and potatoes team. Kommer is sorely missed I think: he never got a lot of the ball, but he usually pulled something out of the hat when we needed it and he was always good at creating a bit of chaos.

The other sort of X-factor is not pace: it’s the player who sees defeat looming and refuses to accept it and by force of willpower and strength of character somehow manages to do what it takes, despite the fatigue and the conditions. James Hird was one; so was Scott Lucas. We don’t have anybody like that now.

Mental toughness. The list in the opening post includes games that aren’t in the same class as Saturday’s loss or the loss to North in the final last year, but it’s a sad fact that we rarely play with full intensity for four quarters, and when an opposition that we have dominated gets the bit between its teeth and comes hard at us, we far too often lack the toughness to fight back. Whether that’s an inherent failing in the group we’ve got, or whether it’s a product of the strain they’ve been under for over two years is impossible to say. I hope it’s the latter; but it was not a good sign that our worst fade-out of all occurred the very week the charges were dismissed. I was hoping before the game that the group would suddenly find themselves feeling twice as fast and twice as strong, and for two and a half quarters it looked as if that might be happening; but once Sydney got a couple of unanswered goals I had a sinking feeling that it was going to end badly, and so it did, even worse than I feared. Not to score a single point from halfway through the third quarter is about as bad as it gets. I have no idea what the answer to that flakiness is, but until we find one we are doomed to mediocrity.

This thread is producing some of the most ridiculous ■■■■■■ up bullshit I have ever seen. Collingwood style numpties every ■■■■■■■ where

And no one is suggesting we are perfect, just that it is far too early to jump to any conclusion with this CURRENT squad.

Also, if we don’t improve across the season, that would be a poor outcome. We should be looking to improve in every facet of the game. Doesn’t mean opposition teams won’t get on top of us.

I also wonder, the fact we get on top, perhaps other teams are too schite to get in that position, hence they just get thumped as opposed to narrowly losing.

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What's with the bickering this week, following the biggest win the club has had in, what, 13-14 years?

I’m just knocking off the preseason rust. Not match-thread hardened yet.

The lack of pre season hurt us all.

Nothing to do with the Pre-season my view - we had these fade outs multiple times last year and in fact have suffered from this problem the last 4 games we have played - Blues, Roos last year and Swans, Hawks this year.

In all 4 games it happened during Q3 (the Swans situation late in Q3).

The problem keeps repeating…it’s real and it has to be fixed if we are to climb the ladder.

I still don’t understand how something last year is relevant. Nor is a trend formed in 2 weeks of one season.

If we really want to look at it in that perspective, then why not compare our performances against Syd and Hawks form last year. In that case, I see only improvement.

For mine, that is far more relevant than the fact that the two best teams in the comp got run-ons against us.

Should Port be concerned because they have lost their last three games. Oh look, there is a trend too.

Perhaps we should go back to where Sydney were 1-3 or something like that and won the flag. I’m sure there was a trend there too.

As mentioned above, until it happens against poor quality teams that we need to beat, it is simply good teams getting on top of us. To say anything else shows that you have zero respect for the way the game is played now and the quality of the opposition.

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Once again I find myself wishing you had to declare & verify your age to get onto Blitz, & that there then was an age filter that could be applied.

Is there any forum platform that does this? They’d have it made.

Nothing’s more boring than tit for tat [email protected] like this.

Sadly that wouldn’t help. I’m plenty old enough to know better. Sorry.


He meant mental age.

I’m sure that would remove dozens as a result.

Hope not. I simply can't reconcile how watching 22 blokes chase a ball around for 2 hours every week is anything but childish, and given how little they've given back the last decade and a half, pig-headedly stubborn to boot. If we all had to be grown up and logical we wouldn't pay anywhere near as much attention to football!
Only childish if you type cast social activities in terms of age profiles.

Football requires passion and passion results in attachment. To be passionless about anything would make our lives somewhat empty and pointless.

Not that I want to go all philosophical now.

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We beat hawks by 1 second and were fortunate they had 3 big outs. If we are to beat them in finals when they will probably field a stronger team then we must have overcome whatever the cause is for our fadeouts and inconsistency.

There were some plausible reasons provided in Round 1: lack of NAB games; sydney gamestyle (hurl’s reason); lack of belief; going defensive; interrupted preparation due to tribunal decision. I think the emotional energy spent early that week ie nervous energy then relief plus the lack of match practice explains the sydney fadeout. But it doesn’t explain why we went missing physically (run & lack of pressure around the ball) for an extended period against a depleted hawthorn.

We have a really good football team but we haven’t been consistent for 4 quarters for a long time. So far this year that trend has continued. We may never really know the reasons. You would expect the late start for all 34 players to benefit them come finals time.

Could look at this a lot of ways, for example:

We beat hawks by 1 second
No we didn’t. That’s stupid media talk. There are many seconds in a game. The last one is not the most important.

“and were fortunate they had 3 big outs”
What makes an ‘out’, ‘big’? Does it not depend on the match up?

in finals when they will probably field a stronger team
Why? Do you imagine that they will make sure they get all their injuries done before the finals, with good planning?

whatever the cause is for our fade-outs
A fade-out from one side, is a surge from another. Reactions to both can be profitable or disastrous. The fact that it is a reaction, instead of a pro-action…is important.

and inconsistency.
‘Inconsistency’ can also be a positive thing…you don’t want to be consistently incompetent. The opposition has a hand in this.

I’ll stop there. Just wanted to point out that it is never as simple as it seems. Losing a game, even when in front, does not necessarily mean inconsistency, fade-out, bad coaching, lack of fitness, etc etc. Because a game is against an opponent - one who is trying to defeat you. These discussions never seem to take that into account.

imo.

We had reasonable reasoning, now we have consistently incompetent. Sounds a bit like what has been going on here. For those of you playing at home, the bickering was nothing, and even the two who were involved appeared to me to be doing it tongue in cheek.

What kind of cheek?

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We beat hawks by 1 second and were fortunate they had 3 big outs. If we are to beat them in finals when they will probably field a stronger team then we must have overcome whatever the cause is for our fadeouts and inconsistency.

There were some plausible reasons provided in Round 1: lack of NAB games; sydney gamestyle (hurl’s reason); lack of belief; going defensive; interrupted preparation due to tribunal decision. I think the emotional energy spent early that week ie nervous energy then relief plus the lack of match practice explains the sydney fadeout. But it doesn’t explain why we went missing physically (run & lack of pressure around the ball) for an extended period against a depleted hawthorn.

We have a really good football team but we haven’t been consistent for 4 quarters for a long time. So far this year that trend has continued. We may never really know the reasons. You would expect the late start for all 34 players to benefit them come finals time.

Could look at this a lot of ways, for example:

We beat hawks by 1 second
No we didn’t. That’s stupid media talk. There are many seconds in a game. The last one is not the most important.

“and were fortunate they had 3 big outs”
What makes an ‘out’, ‘big’? Does it not depend on the match up?

in finals when they will probably field a stronger team
Why? Do you imagine that they will make sure they get all their injuries done before the finals, with good planning?

whatever the cause is for our fade-outs
A fade-out from one side, is a surge from another. Reactions to both can be profitable or disastrous. The fact that it is a reaction, instead of a pro-action…is important.

and inconsistency.
‘Inconsistency’ can also be a positive thing…you don’t want to be consistently incompetent. The opposition has a hand in this.

I’ll stop there. Just wanted to point out that it is never as simple as it seems. Losing a game, even when in front, does not necessarily mean inconsistency, fade-out, bad coaching, lack of fitness, etc etc. Because a game is against an opponent - one who is trying to defeat you. These discussions never seem to take that into account.

imo.

We had reasonable reasoning, now we have consistently incompetent. Sounds a bit like what has been going on here. For those of you playing at home, the bickering was nothing, and even the two who were involved appeared to me to be doing it tongue in cheek.

We beat hawks by 1 second and were fortunate they had 3 big outs. If we are to beat them in finals when they will probably field a stronger team then we must have overcome whatever the cause is for our fadeouts and inconsistency.

There were some plausible reasons provided in Round 1: lack of NAB games; sydney gamestyle (hurl’s reason); lack of belief; going defensive; interrupted preparation due to tribunal decision. I think the emotional energy spent early that week ie nervous energy then relief plus the lack of match practice explains the sydney fadeout. But it doesn’t explain why we went missing physically (run & lack of pressure around the ball) for an extended period against a depleted hawthorn.

We have a really good football team but we haven’t been consistent for 4 quarters for a long time. So far this year that trend has continued. We may never really know the reasons. You would expect the late start for all 34 players to benefit them come finals time.

Could look at this a lot of ways, for example:

We beat hawks by 1 second
No we didn’t. That’s stupid media talk. There are many seconds in a game. The last one is not the most important.

“and were fortunate they had 3 big outs”
What makes an ‘out’, ‘big’? Does it not depend on the match up?

in finals when they will probably field a stronger team
Why? Do you imagine that they will make sure they get all their injuries done before the finals, with good planning?

whatever the cause is for our fade-outs
A fade-out from one side, is a surge from another. Reactions to both can be profitable or disastrous. The fact that it is a reaction, instead of a pro-action…is important.

and inconsistency.
‘Inconsistency’ can also be a positive thing…you don’t want to be consistently incompetent. The opposition has a hand in this.

I’ll stop there. Just wanted to point out that it is never as simple as it seems. Losing a game, even when in front, does not necessarily mean inconsistency, fade-out, bad coaching, lack of fitness, etc etc. Because a game is against an opponent - one who is trying to defeat you. These discussions never seem to take that into account.

imo.

I can’t work out if we are being overrun… by negativity or unwarranted optimism, now.

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What's with the bickering this week, following the biggest win the club has had in, what, 13-14 years?

I’m just knocking off the preseason rust. Not match-thread hardened yet.

The lack of pre season hurt us all.

Nothing to do with the Pre-season my view - we had these fade outs multiple times last year and in fact have suffered from this problem the last 4 games we have played - Blues, Roos last year and Swans, Hawks this year.

In all 4 games it happened during Q3 (the Swans situation late in Q3).

The problem keeps repeating…it’s real and it has to be fixed if we are to climb the ladder.

Yeah, I was talking about pre season for the fans… We were jesting.

I don’t deny there is somewhat of an issue here, but you know what didn’t happen against Sydney, or the Kangaroos, or Carlton last year? We didn’t come back and win.

That part is new.

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What's with the bickering this week, following the biggest win the club has had in, what, 13-14 years?

I’m just knocking off the preseason rust. Not match-thread hardened yet.

The lack of pre season hurt us all.

Nothing to do with the Pre-season my view - we had these fade outs multiple times last year and in fact have suffered from this problem the last 4 games we have played - Blues, Roos last year and Swans, Hawks this year.

In all 4 games it happened during Q3 (the Swans situation late in Q3).

The problem keeps repeating…it’s real and it has to be fixed if we are to climb the ladder.