We’re not guaranteed to get the spoon, but it still seems more likely than not, which means we probably get pick 1. Despite the way it gets fetishised, it’s still just a draft pick and the players it’s used to select are the same promising 18 year olds everyone else is picking from. So would you trade it out?
Obviously the answer is yes. If GWS said you could have Cameron, Lobb, Shiel, Coniglio and Whitfield for pick 1 you’d do that trade without a second’s though. But is there a realistic situation in which you’d trade out the number 1 pick?
Pick 1 gives you the best chance of getting the best player in the draft and that’s not to be sneezed at, but at the same times the absolute odds of getting the best player in the draft with pick 1 aren’t very good; it’s not a golden ticket to a great player. Over the last 20 years, the number 1 pick has never been the clear best player from the draft, and only 4-5 times been in the conversation as the best player from their draft. Yes, Freo messed up royally when they traded out pick 1, but that was hardly the first (or last) disastrous trade they made.
Given that, I would consider trading out pick 1 for a couple of reasons. Firstly there’s currently no stand out pick for #1 so far this year. That may change over the course of the champs and maybe a no-brainer clear best player will emerge, but at the moment there’s a few players in the race and not because they’re all flawless. Secondly, we’re in an unusual position for a wooden spooner for obvious reasons, so there’s less need for us as a club to give supporters the long term hope of a #1 pick rather than aiming for the highest chance of the best list.
As an example of the kind of trade I’d be interested in, GC have (based on the current ladder) pick 8, 10, 22, 26, 27 and Jack Bowes, who’s a potential top 5 academy player. For them pick 8 is a dead pick, and pick 10 would end up being more like pick 14. Pick 1 on the other hand is immune to academy bids meaning they’d definitely get to use it, so they might be interested in something like 8, 10 & 22 for pick 1. Or perhaps Prestia is looking to move, and we could get 8 and Prestia for pick 1.
Anyway, I’m not saying we should be actively shopping it around or that we should trade it just for the sake of it, just that I’d definitely think about it if an interesting opportunity came up. I guess this should be a poll?