Once again I look on having been knocked out in a prelim!
I feel I’d have been beaten even if I’d made it though.
Ziebell & Lambert injured. Mihocek suspended. Langford didn’t get up.
One small positive. Preuss is a named emergency. First time remotely close to being available for the year. Off the LTI list he goes finally. My injury prone one game wonder Comben broke his collarbone so he is done & delisted. I figure Edwards is going to be Norths go to fwd/ruck from next year anyway.
Good luck, Melk. Hopefully we can both post 1400+ and make it an interesting GF.
We get Mills back (assuming he gets to the line) but lose Fanta and Moore remains injured. The loss of Walker for being a turd has also upended things a bit over the last month.
But we have a full 18 and positional cover on the bench. What we don’t have is absolute clarity on who’s our actual Best 18 from one week to the next. The formlines of Francis, Byrnes, Sholl, Kosi, Bytel etc are all over the shop and it’s a guessing game as to which ones to pick. It’s been a bit like that all year actually, but where previously it was only a couple each week, now we’re having to run with three or four. We’ve also been aflicted by several players going missing for halves. Rowbottom was excellent last week until half time, barely scored after that. A four quarter performance from every player is required this week, or Melky’s more consistent unit might prove too good.
Anyway, we’ll plug the names in today and hope to go well. First Grand Final for us, fingers crossed we can get it done.
You too @saladin. Best of luck! Good to see that largely we’re both able to field not too far off our best teams as well which is great. You’d be a very worthy winner.
We are just finalising the makeup of the 18 at HQ. Tempted to dip into the FA market for one game, but also tempted to back in the guys who have got us through three finals so far.
At this stage looking at just the one change. Glad to have Noble back as he’s been rock solid for most of the year.
In: Noble, Out: Mansell (injured)
BBFFL#2 2021 Grand Final Preview
The Melkman (6) vs saladin (2)
UF Prediction: The Melkman 1399 saladin 1561
Head to Head: The Melkman 8 saladin 2
Last time: The Melkman 1259 Defeated saladin 1242 Round 19 2021
Form: The Melkman LWWWW saladin WLWW
Last week: The Melkman 1418 saladin 1399
Final Record: The Melkman 8W-9L saladin 5W-3L
Finals Head to Head: The Melkman 0 saladin 1
Finals Last Time: The Melkman 1336 Lost to saladin 1481 Elimination Final 2019
Season Average: The Melkman 1382 saladin 1455
Season High: The Melkman 1575 Round 5 Saladin 1635 Round 6 (all time record for team)
Previous Grand Finals: The Melkman 1W-0L Saladin First Grand Final
The Melkman 1433 Defeated @DonToDeath 1376 Grand Final 2013
Path to the Grand Final
As one of the original BBFFL#2 coaches, The Melkman has been a perennial finalist, only missing twice – 2016 and 2017. After a busy mid season trade period it is fair to say The Melkman was probably thinking his run to the Grand Final as extremely unlikely. However, his team has hit form at the right time and has knocked over 2 of the top 4 to make it to the big dance. He will now be looking to take another top 4 victim and win his second BBFFL#2 Premiership.
Elimination Final - The Melkman 1379 Defeated Don to Death 1282
Semi Final – The Melkman 1557 Defeated @ivan 1469
Preliminary Final – The Melkman 1418 Defeated @Speedy_Gonzales 1368
For Saladin, his Grand Final appearance is the result of steady improvement of his team over several years. Taking over the coaching reins from @TDSpartan in 2014, he made the finals in his first season, before resetting the squad. Between 2015 and 2018 the team lost more games than it won, with finishes of 15th 14th, 10th and 11th respectively. The team returned to finals action in 2019 and in the past two years a first week Elimination Final victory has been followed up by a Semi Final loss. With just 3 losses for the home and away season a top 4 finish was secured in 2021 and now after two straight finals wins Saladin has earned the right to play off first his first BBFFL#2 flag.
Qualifying Final – saladin 1619 Defeated Ivan 1494
Preliminary Final – saladin 1399 Defeated @cafegerat 1300
If we use scores from the entire season, and run 10000 simulations (picking each players score from the bag at random):
Saladin Wins 83% of the time.
He also has the top 10 simulated scores.
If we use scores from the last 5 games for each player, and run 10000 simulations (picking each players score from the bag at random). This should reflect recent form, but will be noisier:
Either will be worthy winners, but both for very different reasons:
@saladin has been the strongest all around performer all year. I only just beat him for minor premiership and points, but he has logged more top scores and can actually win a final unlike myself.
@The_Melkman, if he tops Sal, will have beaten three of the top four in the finals series, after coming from sixth. Talk about peaking at the right time!
The Melkman 1433 Defeated Don to Death 1376
Aaron Sandilands
Brad Ebert
Brent Stanton
Corey Enright
Dane Swan
Danny Stanley
David Hille
Dylan Roberton (Free Agent - retired preseason 2021)
Farren Ray
Jarrad Waite
Kieren Jack
Lachlan Hansen
Luke Brown (Free Agent)
Lynden Dunn
Matthew Boyd
Quinten Lynch
Sam Butler
Sam Mayes (@Crazy_Bomber)
Unless other noted, no longer on an AFL list
Multiple BBFFL#2 Premiership Players
Player
Premierships
Premiership Years
Justin Westhoff
3
2015, 2017 & 2019
Kade Simpson
3
2016, 2018 & 2019
Lynden Dunn
3
2013, 2015 & 2017
Aaron Sandilands
2
2013 & 2016
Andrew Mackie
2
2012 & 2016
Corey Enright
2
2013 & 2016
David Hille
2
2012 & 2013
Dayne Zorko
2
2015 & 2017
Jarryd Lyons
2
2018 & 2020
Jarryd Roughead
2
2015 & 2017
Liam Picken
2
2015 & 2017
Liam Shiels
2
2018 & 2020
Matthew Boyd
2
2013 & 2017
Richard Douglas
2
2014 & 2019
Sam Gray
2
2015 & 2017
Sam Jacobs
2
2015 & 2017
Sam Mitchell
2
2015 & 2017
Shaun Burgoyne
2
2016 & 2018
Steve Johnson
2
2012 & 2016
Taylor Adams
2
2015 & 2017
Tom Mitchell
2
2015 & 2017
Zach Tuohy
2
2018 & 2019
Preivous BBFFL#2 Premiership Players The Melkman
Josh Dunkley – 2020 - Ivan
Tom Cutler – 2018 - Redbull
Daniel Rioli – 2020 – Ivan
Saladin
Luke Bruest – 2018 - Redbull
Joel Selwood – 2018 - Redbull
Lol, I forgot all about the Sunday teams naming at 5.30 and now potentially have two medical subs in my 18. Could easily prove fatal. I’m really not very good at this.
Just looking at the scores, not too unhappy with the start though. A few more from DBJ would have been handy, but Dunkley didn’t get off the leash either. Rozee and Lycett slightly above their averages.
Sheesh, it’s all falling apart at the seams in terms of selection. Bruest a late out , and unknown status for Sholl and Byrnes.
If Sholl doesn’t play, Francis will come in. If Byrnes doesn’t play, it’ll now be Zack Smith as the utility! I really should have paid attention to selection yesterday evening. I suspect it’s going to be costly.
Meanwhile, Rowbottom , Phillips and Bolton underwhelming, Mills going ok but not outstanding.
