2021 Predictions for EFC

Clark_Griswold · December 24, 2020, 7:12am

FWIW here were the 2020 premiership odds from a post of mine in early January…I got pretty close with my ladder forecast for Essendon 2020, and I included a long-term forecast of lowly ladder positions, so I’m just going to boast by posting that again😁 :

Season 2020. Crash and burn, or win a final?

I like to post the premiership odds from time-to-time, to cut through the Essendon bias:

Richmond $5
West Coast $6
Collingwood $8
GWS $9
Brisbane $11
Western Bulldogs $11
Geelong $12
Hawthorn $15
Melbourne $26
Essendon $29
St Kilda $29
North Melbourne $34
Port Adelaide $34
Adelaide $41
Sydney $41
Carlton $51
Fremantle $51
GC $251

So we’re expected to come 10th…bang on the middle of the ladder.

My gut feel is that we will finish slightly lower than that, maybe 12th.

Our oldest players, our KPD heroes, are fading physically.

Our mid 20s cohort, particularly our best players in this age group, have accumulated a bit of scar tissue, and I think they are unreliable (JD, Fantasia, Heppell, Smith, maybe Merrett). JD doesn’t even want to be here.

Our youngsters, coming through the pipeline, are nothing special. We’ve given up too many draft picks in trading for this to be a strong demographic on our list.

So, in summary, I expect us to miss finals in 2020, and then drift further down the ladder over 2021-2023 as well.

And here are the current 2021 premiership odds:

Richmond $4
Geelong $5
Brisbane $8
West Coast $9
Port Adelaide $9
Western Bulldogs $13
Collingwood $14
St Kilda $17
GWS $17
Melbourne $26
Carlton $34
Hawthorn $51
Fremantle $51
Essendon $67
Sydney $81
GC $81
Adelaide $81
North Melbourne $201

When I consider that the 13th place finish last year probably flattered us (our % was worse than that)…we’ve brought in lots of tall draftees, but they traditionally have negligible impact in their first year of AFL football…that leaves me asking whether Caldwell/Hind/Wright/Perkins will make a big difference in 2021…yeah, not for me…14-15th for 2021 is my current feeling, unless something revolutionary happens over the summer.