It serves a purpose to publish predictions of a low finish. You get the twin opportunities to be either ‘right’ and have the ‘I knew we would be crap’ superiority OR we end up going better than expected and you simply enjoy that because you are a supporter of the club. Pessimism is the smart play.
As has been pointed out several times, pessimists have a shorter life expectancy.
And enjoy what they’ve got less.
Not sure where the “smart” bit of that approach is.
You may detect a hint of sarcasm if you look closely.
I predict we’ll be first.
Any other goal is absurd.
Knew I needed to get my eyes tested.
Bloody ISO.
Wins Crichton? McGrath
Kicks most goals? Stringer
Most improved? Draper
Best Rookie? Perkins
Best trade in: Caldwell
Back in form: Heppell
Best senior debut: Perkins
Ladder finish: 14th
The “optimists” forecasting a finals finish this year are actually predicting a worst case scenario in my mind. Scraping into the 8 as an irrelevant contender would set the club back 3-4 years and short-circuit our re-build. We need to finish bottom four, grab a couple of good kids in the draft, and set ourselves for five years time. Fortunately this is out of our hands in my opinion. Despite our best efforts, a finish around 14-18th is inevitable.
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All good points…however, think we also need to factor in development of other teams around the same vicinity (outside the top performers like tigs/geelong/port/lions…etc) - you will see improvement from the mid-tier teams like (carltank, dogs, melb, saints…even freo/swans and suns potentially) - so to be realistic - we probably will still be fighting around teams like (Adelaide/Hawks/North) to stay on top of this group of potential bottom 4…just being realistic that next year will be reset and development mode -set up the launchpad for the next decade of success (hopefully a few flags!)
Equally “delusional pessimism may occur”.
Lots of teams come from nowhere to play finals. You just need a relatively injury-free run and the players you expect to come on to make real steps forward.
I sincerely hope that if we do come good, then all the persistent naysayers just either ■■■■ right off, or consistently write that they were wrong and express contrition.
I rarely start a season with expectation, but rather with hope. Who saw we were going to be that good in 1993 or 1999, and in neither of those seasons, did we have a great run with injury, losing a swag of key players before the '93 finals, and Hird and Lucas for most of 1999.
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Where do you have us finishing next year?
The only arguments I’ve seen (and not necessarily on here) are ones saying we’ve lost Daniher, Fantasia, McKenna and Saad so we’ll have to be worse.
Pretty dumb, lazy arguments, when the only one of those guys who contributed anything positive in 2020 was Saad.
I think there is genuine reason for hope…not necessarily optimism. The biggest possible factor imo could be the coaches driving standards rather than letting the players do it.
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The betting agency has us coming 14th…so that’s the market view.
If you think we’ll finish meaningfully above 14th, you’re probably an optimist.
If you think we’ll finish meaningfully below 14th (not much room on that side), you’re probably a pessimist.
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I think if we had a good run and got some exciting wins (as per usual) we could sneak into the 8 or finish around the 9th-12th mark, give or take. But that would require playing all the golden oldies and not properly developing the kids. I’d rather finish 14th and have Jones/Eyre/Reid/Cox start to take shape then scrape into the 8 personally.
If someone told me that we’d finish bottom next year and find one or two long term key forwards I’d take it every day of the week. In my mind, find some key forwards next year, grab the best mid in the draft we can next year, then find some pace in 2022 with the Davey twins. Hopefully we can unearth a rookie or two along the way to fill the other gaps, like small defender.
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It is interesting to revisit the 2020 version of this thread…to see which Blitzers have credibility:
Which Blitzers tipped COVID-19 & a hub?
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It’s unsurprising that last season’s bookies predictions aren’t easily available.
But as far as media predictions went GWS were certainties Hawthorn were heavily favoured, and only a handful had Port in the eight.
Virtually no one had St Kilda in the eight, whereas in hindsight they were a good thing.
These things are invariably a herd mentality
Just like if one bookie shortens the odds on a nag dramatically watch the others follow.
And vice versa
So another way to phrase your question;
To lemming or not to lemming?
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FWIW here were the 2020 premiership odds from a post of mine in early January…I got pretty close with my ladder forecast for Essendon 2020, and I included a long-term forecast of lowly ladder positions, so I’m just going to boast by posting that again😁 :
And here are the current 2021 premiership odds:
Richmond $4
Geelong $5
Brisbane $8
West Coast $9
Port Adelaide $9
Western Bulldogs $13
Collingwood $14
St Kilda $17
GWS $17
Melbourne $26
Carlton $34
Hawthorn $51
Fremantle $51
Essendon $67
Sydney $81
GC $81
Adelaide $81
North Melbourne $201
When I consider that the 13th place finish last year probably flattered us (our % was worse than that)…we’ve brought in lots of tall draftees, but they traditionally have negligible impact in their first year of AFL football…that leaves me asking whether Caldwell/Hind/Wright/Perkins will make a big difference in 2021…yeah, not for me…14-15th for 2021 is my current feeling, unless something revolutionary happens over the summer.
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There’s no reason we can’t have a great year. We have the talent, we have had for ages. If the coaches can get the game plan right and the players can get their heads right we should have a great year.
2021 will be a learnings year … (again)