What’s the difference between best rookie and best senior debut? Perkins isn’t a rookie, is he?
Haha yeah I’m just genuinely intrigued whether people making predictions like that just do it to make themselves feel better and to spread some sort of champagne hopes positivity or whether in their heart of hearts after analysing it as critically and as impartially as possible this is where they seriously have us finishing.
So you’re saying they are deluded? We will finish 17th and pick up a superstar in next years superdraft.
Not necessarily deluded. I have our likely zone as 13th to 17th and if others have us finishing in the top 8 then obviously I’d disagree but that’s completely fine and their opinion. I’m just more interested whether they actually believe what they’re writing.
I can see a plausible scenario where we improve on our output last year. In which case it is equally plausible we finish further up the ladder. It can be equally argued that those predicting a lowly position for us is self-protecting.
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Yeah fair enough
I think we can yes
We came flying home in 2018 and only just missed finals after first half ruined by Neeld effect and injuries. In the end adjusted and got by with a Smack / Brown kpf duo and a midfield working its way through without Watson and co now.
We have generally improved across the board since then including progression of young players who were only babies back then in reality.
We also made finals in 2019 despite having injury smash us again.
We have been there abouts for a number of years, we were expected to really impact on finals in 2020 but it ended up just a write off caused by multitude of reasons.
We can make finals absolutely but need a good injury run for once. Our forward line copped it last year in particular as per our main inside mids. Also need complete buy in by the team, there isn’t any deferring to Woosh next year. It’s Ruttens way or out of team now so that should happen.
Thanks for giving an insight into your rationale and I hear what you are saying on a few of those points.
But just to clarify then, 7th is not what you think our likely ‘all things being equal’ finishing position is. It’s what you think (or hope) we can get to if nearly everything goes right?
Because those are two different things.
There is never a situation where everything goes right
But I don’t think should be predicting finish on account of doomsday either.
We are a better team/squad than what many are giving us credit for.
Obviously 2020 sucked though which is front of mind.
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7th is genuinely on the cards, provided it’s not a shitshow like 2020.
That’s not to say everything has to go perfectly- it’s just the conjunction of mass injuries, hub, new coach & game plan with no match sim permitted, and lack of depth was more a one off than credited.
Objectively
Made the 8 just in 2019.
No one can claim we played out of our skins, or had a miracle run with injuries then.
In fact we were tipped to improve in 2020.
So what have we got worse at for 2021?
Lost 2 small quality backs.
Lost 6 good games from Fantasia (at the start of the year) in 2019
Had good years from Hooker & Hurley in 2019 which may or may not happen in 2021.
What have we got better at?
Players.
Ridley
Midfield generally including McGrath, Langford plus newbie in Caldwell. I believe we’ve actually got a very good, deep, midfield now.
Ruck - Draper plus Phillips plus 2MP is better than Belly + Clarke
Forwards- we had no Joey for 2 years, and cameos from Fantasia & relied on Smack & Brown - we’re on a par, if not slightly better if Jones or 2MP or any of the newbies in Perkins Cox Cahill can do something. (In 2019 our depth was Gown & Houlihan as medium tall forwards)
Defenders are solid, with a small question about depth in our smaller defenders. But no one cites Broad Short & Houlihan as the reason Richmond won the flag. A forced change in our frenetic rebound style is not necessarily a bad thing. Nor a significant loss.
And will Redman be 2020 or 2019?
Coaches. Anyone here reckon the coaching will go backwards?
And the draw is a good one in terms of who we play twice - possibly an all important extra 2 or 3 wins.
So yeah.
We’ve got holes & improvement to make.
But we’ve got a decent age profile with one or two exceptions.
Objectively I put us on a par with 2019, with more room for improvement.
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Expect plenty of long term injuries in 2021, as well as the excuse of players still learning the game plan under Rutten.
14th or 15th
Wins Crichton: McGrath
Kicks most goals: Stringer
Most improved: Redman
Best Rookie: Perkins
Best trade in: Hind
Back in form: Smith
Best senior debut: Jones
Ladder finish: 11th
Very close to @CJohns. I couldn’t agree with Parish for Most Improved, simply because I think he’s one of our best already. Most goals is a real lottery, but Stringer is as likely as any.
The most important is ladder position. 11th is not very optimistic, but that’s how I feel. Basically it all depends on Ben Rutten. If he turns out to be a good coach, we’ll know it fairly soon. Ditto if he turns out not to be.
Wins Crichton? McGrath
Kicks most goals? Stringer or Tippa
Most improved? Langford
Best Rookie? Perkins
Best trade in: Caldwell
Back in form: Ambrose
Best senior debut: Caldwell
Ladder finish: 13th
I reckon we’ll finish between 10th and 16th, hence choosing the mid-point of 13th. I don’t think we’re terrible enough to finish bottom 2.
Wins Crichton? McGrath
Kicks most goals? Wright. (31 goals)
Most improved? Laverde
Best Rookie? Perkins
Best trade in: Wright
Back in form: Smith
Best senior debut: Jones
Ladder finish: 9th
No arguments from me. I actually believe the biggest factor will be a Rutten game plan without the confusion of Worsfold tinkering away.
Rutten, Cara and Gia must have a better shot of getting the most out of a reasonably decent squad.
I am backing 2MP and have him down for 30+ goals
Laverde to finally come of age
Heppell back full time
A rejuvenated Smith either in defence or midfield
Hind to surprise
A decent midfield that has genuine talent (Merrett, Shiel, Parish, Langford, McGrath, Caldwell)
Draper to come of age
Hooker and Hurley to bounce back from poor seasons and give us one more year of decent, albeit, declining output from their golden years.
Ridley and Redman to own the half back flank
Walla, Laverde, Stringer and Stewart to provide enough to gives us winning scores
Excitement from debuts by Jones, Perkins and Cox
Cahill to emerge as a really solid small forward
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This thread should be renamed to warn readers.
“Delusional optimism may occur”
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The interesting bit is I’ve yet to see any detailed arguments about why we’ll be worse than than 2019.
Other than we were crap last year so why would things change?
Despite actual changes having occurred.
I can only diagnose, and trust me, I know a doctor, delusional Covid-19 pessimism.
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I don’t see how we’re possibly any worse than last year.
We lost Fantasia and Daniher- we hadn’t had them for the past 2 seasons anyway.
Saad is a loss, however we gain Heppell, Wright, Caldwell and possibly Hind the to the best 22. Net gain in my view.
Natural improvement from McGrath, Langford, Jones, Parish, Draper and others of that demographic will help.
Worsfold is gone. No mixed messages.
Looks like we’ll have a full compliment do a pre-season. Last year it was a casualty ward.
Perkins may be able to make an immediate impact. It’s been a while since we’ve had a draftee make a difference.
I’m stupidly optimistic.
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