I get the ‘wait a couple years and see’ with a guy with some pedigree, but you can’t ignore the bust risk is getting significantly high with him (along with Cox). They lost lots of junior development time from Covid and have already lost significant time in afl system while showing not too much. They are high risk maybe players, which is not justfagetaboutit news. If they come good we’ll then have to pay top dollar as contracts are up before we’ve got much from em as well.
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Well said. I’m now in the panic room about this kid. All the wraps on him and the “he’s the best of the 3 (Cox, Perkins, Reid)”, this will be another season where injury severely hampers his preparation. The stats show that picks from 8-10 in the draft, the strike rate isn’t that great in terms of getting a superstar player, or even an above average AFL player. The bust rate is higher than you think, and that’s why maybe we should’ve traded 2 of those picks for a known quantity (Dunkley). The only 1 of the 3 that I have any confidence will become a top-liner is Archie. The other 2 I have serious reservations on because one of them we have no idea what his best position is, and the other is constantly injured.
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I’m not sure I’d throw Cox in the ‘while not showing too much’ basket. I think he showed plenty when fit. Can he get back to his best and stay fit? That’s a different question.
I suppose the other side of the coin is, Key Position players in general take longer to develop, so we should reasonably expect to take players in the over 200cm category, put years into development, then turn them over if they’re not up to it.
There are a very few KP players that are a ‘sure thing’ in the draft, and they go very early with clubs selling the farm to get them, and even they take time to develop, and have some injury risk - e.g. King brothers. Then there are mature KP players that can’t get games in another club, which you can gamble on. 2MP was an excellent pickup, but no sure thing when we got him. Other than that, most clubs spend later picks on KP players, put years into them, and hope for the best.
We could turn all these players over earlier, but we’d miss out on some gems that way too - after putting several years into their development.
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Good analogy when I thought about it. Lillee was in danger of being lost to greatness when stress fractures hit him. He then underwent dedicated back strengthening and changed his action. He returned to top class cricket and the rest is history.
I’m sure Zach will have access to top notch physio to do similar. No guarantee it all works as AFL is very different to cricket … but he’s worth investing in.
I don’t have the faith that others seem to in Archie, I think Cox is the most likely of the three
Perkins has two or three moments every game where you think ‘wow… nobody else can do that’ but he spends a lot of time running in no man’s land and not impacting the game. His best asset is shrugging tackles / standing up in tackles and releasing the ball. He’s not particularly dominant in the air, he’s not particularly dominant off the deck, he’s not super creative by hand or foot.
If you look at the gun forward/mids like Dusty, Danger, Ricciuto, etc they all had breakout games in their early seasons where they kicked bags but struggled for consistency. Archie hasn’t really had a breakout game.
I think he is more likely at this stage to end up more of a Langford level… a good player, but not a gun player.
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Feel like we’re watching different players. The Perkins I saw pre injury in 2022 was damaging by foot, almost always kicking to advantage and making the right decision, unlike 2021. His marking is solid for his height and age, while agility-wise he is levels above Langford. His main issues are fitness and positioning which are what you’d expect young players to improve on once they hit their 3rd or 4th year.
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Did you watch Archies game v Adeliade last year where he tore the second half to shreds kicking 3.3?
he averages 4 marks a game and has shown pretty good marking ability. His strength in the contest allows him to release players and often put the ball into advantageous positions.
Averaged just under a goal a game and 0.6 goal assists during 2022. For a second year half forward/ midfielder he has shown he has great attacking attributes and strength in the contest. I dont know what more he could be doing at this stage.
Stats wise he is pretty comparable to Dangerfield at the equivalent stage in his career. I’m pretty comfortable with where hes at tbh. More confident with perkins than I am cox or reid.
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Nailed it!
Yeah I hope I’m wrong but I just don’t see it with him. More confident of Hobbs who seems to have the mentality
Perkins will be a good player like Zaka, will be able to win games off his own boot, but wont be as consistent as we want him too. He is another that was stifled due to covid.
was due to play mainly as a onballer in his draft year but didnt get the chance.
Has experience playing wing as a bottom ager. And I would trial him there, he has lots of clips as a junior marking it on the wing or middle of ground and transitioning the ball forward.
I probably have higher hopes of Hobbs/Caldwell/Tsatas as onballers, but none are versatile like Perkins who can play Forward+midfield.
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Yeah Hobbs is pretty much a sure thing. I know what you mean with Perkins, though, I dont totally disagree, but I dont think the way he is tracking is a cause for concern at this point.
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I don’t think there’s cause for concern, I am tempering my expectations though. As @Houli_Dooli said Zaharakis feels like a good career comparison. Archie probably won’t get as much of the ball as Zaka did, but he’ll likely be more damaging with it.
They’ll likely rival each other for off-field prowess, too.
Not fitness.
He is one of the fittest at the club.
Just needs to get his positioning right like you said.
Not convinced … but this is the Zach Reid thread. And barring these setbacks he’ll be our new Dustin in 3 years time imao.
I feel like Zaka and Perkins are very different players. Zaka was a running, outside midfielder who didnt really impact the contest but had a good knack for goals.
Perkins is a bull who has a good leap, evasiveness and core strength. Im not sure we have had a player like him in a long time… if ever. Im loathe to draw a comparison to Zaka tbh. Completely different types of players in my book.
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Zaka never broke a single tackle in his career.
Perkins is yet to be tackled.
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wasnt saying they were the same type, just trying to give my estimate of Perkins ceiling, dont feel will be a star, but will still be a good player who contributes.
I can’t believe that we are referencing Dennis Lillie from 50 years ago. Back then a good sporting diet consisted of a steak and beer the night before the game and the warm up consisted of a few bent over windmills and touching your toes.
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