Think you missed a full stop and accidently kept typing.
2 Likes
- Merrett received 14 votes in the Brownlow
- Only 30 other players received 14 or above votes in the Brownlow.
- There are 800 professional AFL players across 19 teams
- Statistically then, Merrett is in the top 3-4% on all professional players.
- Therefore, given my rough stats, we have about a 3-4% chance of picking up another player like Merrett in a trade/draft no matter what pick we are given.
- The % reduces a little given a higher pick, but you have no guarantees your pick will make it into the top 3-4 % of elite players. He could be a dud. Plenty of examples are out there.
- So, when someone in this thread says we should trade him and get pick X or Y, the actual chances of replacing a player like him are overall, pretty slim.
- just sayingā¦
11 Likes
Can you overlay that with our chance of a premiership while Merrett is here?
Nobody doubts Merrett is a brilliant footballer.
13 Likes
Good question, but too difficult; the juice isnāt worth the squeeze.
I just wanted to highlight the crazy trade/picks issue that keeps coming up in this thread.
Nothing you posted was wrong.
But the chance of merrett being apart of a premiership with essendon is probably that 3-4% the chance the players we get for him are apart of it would be a lot higher
boof. great word.
1 Like
Cool. With Zac at the helm playing most games, where did we finish again?
6 Likes
I just think judging by Merrettās interviews and comments at the Brownlow, heās totally gone. The āStill love between Essendon and meā sounds very past tense and reflective. Its like commenting on an ex girlfriend that you had an amicable break up withā¦
Exactly. Thereās no doubting Merrettās credentials, butā¦ this feels like a classic take 1 step back to eventually take 2 steps forward scenario.
Iād rather finish bottom 4 with two additional top ten picks in the team than finish bottom 4 with a 30+ yr old Merrett in the team.
Will the 2 potential draftees be as good as Merrett? probably not. But from a list perspective itās absolutely the right thing to do.
This is ignoring the whole 
factor as well.
9 Likes
Donāt disagree with your premise that itās unlikely you get a pick as good as merret but Iāve got a couple of issues.
- Using Brownlow votes to define best players (pretty much excludes 80% of the players and is a pretty loose measure).
- How many of the top 3-4% are top ten draft picks. Iād suggest a pretty significant amount.
- If Merret was a car he would be a WRX with a couple of hundred thousand kms on the odo. How long has he actually got left? Could be 5 years could be 2. When the drop off comes it comes fast.
3 Likes
Good post!
I suppose you could argue that trading a variety of our picks for A grade talent also increases our chances of being able to recreate his output on the field. I think the main concern is, why do we think this will work for us? It hasnāt for a while now.
Personally, Iād rather hit the draft - build a young list of a similar age profile, bring in a senior player or two from other clubs to help set standards and then trade in the missing pieces when the club thinks itās ready. In saying that, if the proposed trade for Merrett is only pick #8, I wouldnāt do that deal on principle.
The only person who knows what zach merrettās plans are - is zach merrett. Maybe his manager and I guess his wife also, that is it. Everyone else who nit picks what he says , or what welsh says or what scott says or what tom morris says is all conjecture and guesses.
5 Likes
In his mind he is clearly gone.
But I have no doubt that we are going to Joe Daniher him - i.e. not trade and miss our chance to extract max value - as some misguided attempt at displaying strength.
3 Likes
I think we have to get our heads around the fact that we could, at this stage have Merrett, or not. Unfortunately for us FITH bombers supporters, we will still be here regardless of the outcome. As part of my therapy, im now trying to visualise Merett staying due to the club being all warm and fuzzy (past players), new fitness staff, good draftees coming in, good new batch blooded this year etc thus belief that there is a light in the tunnel now. If he goes, and we well compensated, good riddance. If he stays, well I guess thatās going to have to be ok tooā¦.. kind of.
1 Like
No lowball offers, I know what I got
2 Likes
Plenty of people have / had ZM as their profile pic.
1 Like
Sensationally specious reasoning, bravo.
You forgot 6. Itās that sh!tcrnt Mitchell & the filthy pees & poos
I reckon his mum knows more than anyone!