I went through the '15 draft the other week and the 2 most successful players picked after the mid 2nd round are Mitch brown and Hartley. Ie a heap of clubs struck out a heap of times.
I’m not sure people take anything in context.
Fact: We are 10th - and we haven’t won a final since what was it? 2004?
Our late Sheedy years recruiting was pretty rubbish and probably reflected him wanting to try to prop up the side quickly to make the most of having Hird, Fletch, Lucas, Lloyd etc. to try and get back up the ladder quickly.
But where we are now is precariously on the verge of success and failure, 2 games away from third (and we know we could have won at least 2 more - but we didn’t) and 2 games off 15th.
Despite our two most recent losses, we may well be on the verge of realising our potential this year provided we avoid any further self inflicted slip ups. Our performance is much improved (particularly our midfield) in the past 5 games we have performed thus:
ROUNDS 12-17
Contested Possession Differential: +6 (5th in the league)
Clearance Differential: +3 (5th)
Inside 50 Differential: +10 (2nd)
Pts For: 107 (1st)
Pts Against: 75 (3rd)
*Courtesy of Champion Data (I have posted this with the article it came from in the midfield woes thread).
This means nought if we don’t keep winning, but the above does make that seem relatively possible, especially considering we were still competitive even when we were among the worst sides getting the ball inside our forward 50 in the first half of the season.
I am on the side of acknowledging the work of Dodoro, to have created what we all agree is finally a functional forward line out of only one first round pick and the other five members of our current forward group being constructed from what might have easily been nothing picks is remarkable (and a godsend considering our loss of top picks in 2014 and 2015).
Consider, again, our forwards: Joe D - FS pick 10, Cale Hooker - pick 54, Raz - pick 55, Walla - rookie pick 22, The Corgi - delisted free agent, James Stewart - traded for pick 77.
Also consider our backline other than Hurley (pick 5) and McGrath (who is destined for the midfield), Dodoro gets plenty of props here too: Baguley rookie pick 47, Hartley pick 68, Ambrose rookie pick 26, McKenna international rookie, Kelly delisted free agent. AVS does Dodoro a disservice only to highlight picks from the main draft, this is disingenuous. Recruiting is about getting good players however you can.
Getting back to the present; the key is that our midfield is beginning to gel, and barring too many injuries I am predicting we are on the verge of being a successful finals side, based on our building form (see above stats) and our absolute realisation that we can’t take our foot of the throttle even for a moment for the rest of the season (we will deal with this by continuing to rest players).
Until we have success, it is reasonable to say we haven’t been successful at recruiting players. Even so, I think we should at least acknowledge to construct what I think is a champion forward line from the picks Dodoro used to find them demonstrates what Dodoro has become increasingly good at, taking a punt on players with “a lot of up side”.
This gives me faith in the future for the likes of Lav, Langford, Begley, Ridley, Mutch, Clarke and Draper.
But only time will tell.
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There’s ~100 picks taken every year and we’ll have 3-8 of them.
Fairly self evident someone else is going to find talent, surely?
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The problem with this, is that the list was clearly primed to be hitting finals in 2013 and onwards. We had been on an upwards trajectory, but we all know what happened. Obviously, what would have happened is anyone’s guess, but we clearly would have played finals in 2013, might have been able to attract talent, and surely would have performed better in 2014. Experience matters, and if you say Dodoro’s criteria for success is a finals win, I think there is a good chance with two bites at the cherry in back to back years we would have got one. Maybe even a double chance or two.
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And, HAP, everyone else misses on some picks virtually every year too! No-one pretty much ever nails every pick (maybe Geelong when they got a tonne in, Bartel etc, one year).
Correct
People effectively suggesting Disco/Keane pick all guns are effectively suggesting he should be magic. It doesn’t work that way
I read a stats paper the other week (and quoted it on here)
Expected value of pick 20 is a ~140 gamer. Ie someone like Craig Bird or Lovett Murray
Expected value of a pick 40 is a ~55 gamer. Ie Jackson Merrett or Hennemann.
Expecting 4 x 200 gamers every draft is pie in the sky stuff. They’re just not that common. Essendon’s had exactly 27 of them in 120 years.
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If you want to pull out one of the media’s criteria and compare picks, go ahead. If you need a full history, I think Knightmare on BigFooty has done a mock draft with probably the first 3 rounds covered, every year for years. You could just take the highest rated player he had left at each of our picks, which would probably also cover later rounds/rookie picks. He may even do a rookie phantom some years. Or there is the BigFooty official phantom, which I think covers all eligible picks.
However, what you appear to have done is just taken “best available” after the picks. Which is a lousy way of doing it. On that basis there won’t be a recruiter in the country that will look any good.
It also seems a little early to be saying how the 2015 and 2016 drafts will pan out.
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Ours is one of the best young lists in the AFL off the back of big penalties from the saga and the introduction of two teams into the system.
Pretty sure Dodoro knows what he’s doing.
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Looking pre 2013 from 2004 onwards he hasn’t exactly been bringing the talent through the door.
Oh? Interesting change of goal posts.
But to play: I’d have said he did pretty well, above average but not miles above average. He’s also been unlucky with a few very promising picks (Gumby, Pears, D. Daniher), and a few people leaving (Jenkins, Richards, Crameri). A number of those drafts were very strong for us - 2009 (Carlisle, Colyer, Melksham, Hardingham, Howlett, Crameri), 2007 (Myers, Pears, D. Daniher, Hooker and Belly) and 2013 (Zerrett, Ambrose, Fantasia) in particular, while some have been poorer.
But I’m not sure if he has any drafts in that period outside of 2004 (a pretty weak draft generally) and 2006 (injuries to Gumby, Jetta just misses on 83 games) where he doesn’t have at least 2 hundred game players. He still got at least one in both those drafts (Monfries and Davey) So not bad.
Another good sign is how many Essendon players have been given second chances over the years, implying that even his “failures” were still rated on talent, but not on development. Edwards, Reynolds, S. Harvey, Bannister, Jenkins, Richards, Bradley, Forster-Knight, McGrath, Podsiadly, Hislop, Nash, and Cartledge were all given second shots by other teams. That implies they rated the picks, but not the development, since they thought they could still get a footballer out of them.
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He’ll get my props when he lands us Kelly.
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I agree that it’s too early to tell on the last couple of drafts, no question about that.
I’ve watched quite a bit of VFL over the last 4 years and our depth has improved massively. 2014 while Steinberg went very well in the AFL, the only other player that looked the goods was Tippa, 2015 not much better. Last year and this year you can finally see young guys who are moving towards demanding a spot.
I acknowledge that i haven’t taken into account trading and the rookie draft. I realise that we, like any other side doesn’t work on a ‘best available’ approach,
As I mentioned, I am very keen to be sitting here in 2 years time and find half the “jury’s out” on my list are wins. The recruiting team are obviously held in high regard so they will be around for quite some time yet.
I am quite prepared to change my mind but I am not convinced yet. The more I think about it, the harder it is though to really prove much either way.
If you had every teams draft board for every year then you could match it all up. If everyone had Orazio in the 55-60 range is is such a great pick? If nobody had him in the top 100 its an amazing pick. If everyone had Dylan Van Unen in their top 40 - then it doesn’t look so bad…but if nobody else had him in the top 100 then it is a massive, massive fail.
James Kelly? He already has.
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This is very vaild, I’ve been a bit focused on the failures in the mid picks - this has been well built.
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This is very much to the point. If all the recruiters rate a player, is it a miss if they then fail? And if everyone would have taken a player with that pick, is it really a great achievement when they make it? Without know everyone’s board (both best available and adjusted for their own list), its very hard to tell.
Where the F*ck is Tippa?
Jack Steele was an academy pick for GWS
Francis was touted as a potential #1 at one stage and predicted to go between picks 3-10 considering he is a tall utility I rate that being a good pick.
But you could argue with most of those 'Misses" that all the clubs had their opportunity to take them… Burton’s leg was a train wreck. Rhys Mathieson slid because his pace was an issues. Bailey Williams was chosen based on his one, and I mean one! ridiculous 50 disposal game that caught the recruiters eyes and he is in and out of that seniors side.
Every club has had their wins/loss with draftees.
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Noted on Jack Steele.
As previously mentioned, I wasn’t looking at rookie picks.
Burton was also touted as a number 1 pick. It’s too early to say whether Francis is a good pick or not. I am a massive fan so I hope he turns potential into 200 games.
I appreciate all the nuances of broken legs and sliders etc. Why did Morgan slide? or was he number 90 for every other team and we just paid massive overs?
Unless we know what every other team thought then much of what I and others have mentioned here is unprovable.
Not much to disagree about. However I do disagree that picking Raz at 55 isn’t so amazing if others might have picked him. It is also Disco’s job to get the most out of his draft picks, if he thought Raz might have been the player he is, you could argue using a top 10 pick would be reasonable, but if he could have used pick 64 instead of promoting Lauchie Dalgleish and picked up Jayden Hunt at 55 and got Raz and Hunt, that would have been better recruiting, you need to judge not only who is the best value pick, but how do you get the best combination of players with the picks you have.
Think Richmond vs Hawthorn in 2004 Pick 1 Deledio Pick 2 Roughead Pick 4 Tambling Pick 5 Franklin, all those players were probably predicted around about, but picking the best ones is still an art and the Hawks were very conscious of who Richmond would pick and they gambled on them preferring the disciplined Tambling over the pure talent of Buddy although they were thinking they would have missed Roughead if they picked Buddy first even though they knew he was the more brilliant.
Our version may be picking Langford before Boekhorst because Carlton liked him more than Boekhurst even though we probably liked Laverde better, but they knew Carlton preferred Langford. We got both. Whether that was a masterstroke or not remains to be seen, but we are pretty happy we didn’t pick Boekhurst.
But recruiting is essentially a gamble, you aren’t going to pick every winner, but if you beat the bookmaker overall, you are doing a good job.
At least we arent Carlton who have cocked up some serious draft picks
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Yeah, the 2004 was quite amazing. I hope our Langford effort works out the same way!
I have a better understanding now, both from everyone’s comments and thinking about the getting every clubs draft board angle.
So the question is on the game theory component…did GWS want McGrath like was intimated or was that a ploy to turn everyone away from Tarranto? Fund and games.
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