Adrian Dodoro - Flankers into Mids since 2000 (Part 1)

Agreed.

I think it was to make sure, they had a live pick before Setterfield was nominated.

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Ahhh i see. Well they have certainly had a good run at! I look forward to seeing them just miss the GF again this year!

Has been playing for us for 2 years now mate

Don’t even bother trying to critique that piece of fantasy. Utter nonsense in that assessment unfortunately VanderScreamer. You don’t name a player we took at pick X and then go on to name players X, Y and Z that were taken ‘at some point’ after said player and call that a ‘miss’. I almost hope there is a biased agenda behind the post to paint the recruiting in a poor light - because the alternative is a fundamental lack of understanding of how a draft works (and how many other clubs ‘missed’ those same players).

Honestly anyone stating a draft pick outside the first 2 rounds is a “fail” has unrealistic expectations.

You need to ensure you hit on your first and second rounders.

Getting a good 100+ player out of your final 3 picks and rookies every second year is probably average. If you get more you have done well. How could anyone list van unen and Eades as failed recruiting. Fanciful. They are a complete bonus pick. And then listing 4 players that other clubs passed on amongst the next 40 selections as evidence of poor recruiting. Hot damn.

Failure is picking Shane Harvey, Cale Morton or Kane Lucas. Not Lachlan Dalgleish!

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I love the people trying to downplay the recruiters by claiming they don’t get credit for picking highly rated players with their top picks. Talk about ignoring anything that doesn’t fit your agenda.

Sure someone like Daniher was a bargain, but that ignores the years of work that would have gone into identifying his talent, not to mention all the work that they would have put into the other top players. There’s no way they recruited Daniher without having done their background on all the other players they rated as comparable talents. You can have a discounted access to someone, but it means nothing if you haven’t done the work to determine how they’re rated.

Your top picks are your most valuable commodity as a recruiter and getting as many of them right as possible is ultimately what will make lists contenders.

Let’s see how Emma Quayle performs at the end of this year.

If she nails it, then reporters can do the job.

So then we give Dodoro’s job to Cal Twomey and drop the microphone biiiaatches!

It’s stating the flaming obvious, but the later the pick the lower the chance of getting a decent player.

There’s a nice chart at the bottom of this article that shows the average games played per pick:

http://www.heraldsun.com.au/sport/afl/afl-draft-2015-pick-6-cursed-pick-56-lucky--every-draft-pick-rated/news-story/8a5b842680bb6b00cd02c306d45ef3ab

1-15 picks should play 100+ games

  • All our picks in this range look on track for long careers = Pass

16-30 ~75 games AFL average

  • we have 1 Brownlow contender, 3 players in best 25, 1 potential delist from injuries, 2 developing = Pass

31-50 ~50 games

  • Mutch vs Ashby = Pass

51+ ~40 games

  • Brown, Hartley, Fantasia, Gleeson vs 5 that didn’t make it = Better than AFL average

Late picks are there to take chances. The more you take and the faster you turn them over, the better chances of finding a gem. If anything we’ve held onto fringe players too long as Dodoro has a strong record with late picks. He’s running nearly a 50% success rate with picks 50+, which is far better than the norm.

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Except that’s not really comparing his performance to Cal Twomey’s, is it? That’s just listing a bunch of guys who’ve looked pretty good since they’ve been drafted, who we had the opportunity to draft. In 2014 we apparently “missed” seven blokes, despite only having two ■■■■■■■ picks. Hindsight being 20/20, there’s not a club in the competition who doesn’t look “average” if you grade them on the entirety of good players they didn’t pick.
The benchmark should be the recruiting teams from the other 17 clubs. And I’d say that compared to most he’s been on pretty good streak lately.

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Everyone knows that Emma Watson and Tombstone get here lists from actually speaking with the recruiters right?

They are not super informed scouts… They are decent journalists who engage the right people to help formulate a view. Yes they may have some good insight because they live and breathe it but this are not independent draft profiles they are building…

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I don’t see why it should matter?
If anything, game theory - working out what your opponent thinks and moving accordingly - is a positive. Ie how we got Lav and Lang, we knew Carlton rated one but not the other, and took them according to how we rated them, not how the other club rated them.

Emma Quayle is now a recruiter for GWS.

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Rubbish. She was one of two journos who’s been following the draft, under 18s & draft camp for 15+ years. Of course she has her own opinions, she was well worth reading at every opportunity.

GWS seem to disagree with you, but they would only rate her opinions because they’d already told her what they thought!

When has Emma Watson ever recruited anyone?

Ahahahaha.

Jeeze you’re a bit special aren’t you?

I was laughing at both my admiration for Emma Watson and the fact that I didn’t know Emma Quayle was now a recruiter lol.

I doubled down lol.

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Agreed but they aren’t just free swings either, I mean there must be some industry benchmark in which to use to measure success of third round picks onwards.

Is the mitch brown 1 year, the coup being talked about?