Drafting is about more than the national draft. Rookie, Msd and ssp mechanisms are so important now.
In terms of your comments, guelfi, bzt and ham were found with late picks during that period, which is pretty good. Obviously, clearly the first two, but players making it at that stage is more unlikely than likely.
Via those other mechanisms during that period we got Martin, Durham, dambrosio, Wanganeen, Baldwin, Voss, waterman etc who have all played some senior footy and the first two are outstanding picks.
It seems like you are underestimating the likelihood of getting a good player later in the draft.
Here is some data
Proportion of players drafted that played 100 games (2004 to 2016)
Drafted 31 to 60
Essendon: 18%
Competition: 27%
In terms of our recent performance. Letâs lower the bar and simply ask whether that player is still on an AFL list.
From 2015 to 2021 we selected 19 players in the national draft with a 30+ picks. Four or 21% of selections are on an AFL list (BZT, Guelfi, Bryan, Eyre). In contrast, the league average is 45%.
Are 20 years of no finals wins solely his fault. Obviously not. Should anyone with even half that amount of time with no success remain in the job? Obviously not.
Looking at the data, the draft evens out past pick 30. A pick in the 30s is only slightly more likely to produce a 100 game player as a pick in the 50s
There are three rough groups of the draft in my eyes. Top 10 picks where you should be pretty confident you are getting a good player.; Picks 11 to 30 which are still pretty good; and then picks 31 onwards.
Here is the data (based off 2004 to 2016)
Likelihood of 100 games
pick 1 to 10: 71%
pick 11 to 20: 50%
pick 21 to 30: 45%
pick 31 to 40: 31%
pick 41 to 50: 28%
pick 51 to 60: 23%
Itâs hard to assess picks post 60 due to previous draft rules around re-rookie selections.
That is consistent with the analysis I have done. My contention is that pick 15-35 or roughly Second round picks are undervalued too much by clubs.
The other part I think people are missing is that a core element of why top 10 picks are top ten, is their athletic profile. When you fill a side with players. Who are later picks, rookies and SSP etc you can often have to compromise on athleticism to get a person who is good enough to play AFL at a decent level.
Top picks give you both the football quality, but also the size, strength, speed and especially running power to become more dominant. This is especially true for KPP/Rucks, who come from a much smaller talent pool. Missing on them consistently can really impact the teams long term composition through a lack critical traits.
The endurance running power is one we have continually been short in.
It is also why I believe dropping back from a top pick, i.e. Trading the Tsatas pick 5 back for a collection of late first/early seconds would have been a good option for us, to fill a bunch of gaps and lift the general profile of the list. No we are very dependant on Tsatas living up to the Pick 5 expectations.
The offers we got for Tsatas and Hobbs were certainly very compelling. I like Tsatas as a prospect, but donât think he was the prospect for us. Fingers crossed though
Dees and iirc Bulldogs offered multiple first rounders for the pick we used on Tsatas. Dees was pick 13, and two future firsts. One of which became pick 6, Windsor. So in hindsight, you take that deal.
Dees wanted Humphrey, and itâs unclear who Bulldogs wanted
Adrian the game of football is won by kicking goals and there are particular players who excel at that called forwards. Could you please draft or trade for some. Every week we are not getting reward for effort becuase we canât score efficiently.
2MP and jones is a tight arse C grade combo that wonât stand up in finals.
This. 20 years to build a list and we bank on 2 talk forwards, 1 who canât take a contested mark but is a great set shot for goal, the other is a good mark but canât convert set shot.
And Menzie who looks like a plodder from the NDFL 4ths who canât defend and wouldnât beat me in a foot race and Iâve had 4 petella tendon rebuilds and weight 120kgs
Sure⌠it doesnât help at all. Langford, Stringer, Jones, Wright⌠all of them regularly spunking shots at goal over the past couple of months. It was going to cost us a game sooner or later. There was nothing surerâŚ
But Iâm talking about a pick 5. How in the bloody hell can you use pick 5 on a bloke who just cannot kick??
