AFLW 2024 - non-Essendon matches and snippets

Football Discussion Essendon AFLW
101

Lincoln McCarthy, sorry Dakota Davidson, kicks the Lions first goal. Trail North 1.2.8 to 2.2.14.

1 Like
102

Dakota don’t take any ■■■■ from Norf – they started a brawl after the quarter-time siren and Dakota made them regret it (legally-ish).

2-14 the Bears trail.





EDIT: read the posts in reverse order, thanks.

1 Like
103

Injuries will be the only thing to stop North this season

104

Bears getting stomped on.

Norf lead 51-15

1 Like
105

As each team gets further away from Klakko, they get exponentially better.

1 Like
106

My model currently says:

Place Team Points For Against Percentage
1 Norf 44 564 346 163%
2 GWS 44 571 354 161%
3 Saints 40 575 394 146%
4 Hawks 34 544 429 127%
5 WCE 34 499 414 121%
6 Freo 32 522 417 125%
7 Swans 28 470 466 101%
8 Pies 24 463 480 96%
9 Melb 20 459 460 100%
10 Port 20 448 481 93%
11 FCFC 20 463 505 92%
12 Adel 16 455 485 94%
13 Cats 12 444 491 90%
14 Tiggers 12 427 491 87%
15 Bears 8 392 526 75%
16 Suns 4 397 579 69%
17 EFC 2 382 555 69%
18 Dogs 2 358 560 64%

Yes, we have a draw with the Dogs.






Simulation uses a sample of 8.75 games… may not be perfect.

2 Likes
107

Final modelled prediction after round one’s completion. GWS are the best and @PH_WARFRadio was too lid-off on us.

Place Team Points For Against Percentage
1 GWS 44 577 359 161%
2 Norf 44 625 420 149%
3 Saints 40 583 400 146%
4 Freo 34 531 426 125%
5 WCE 34 510 425 120%
6 Hawks 32 550 438 126%
7 Swans 28 482 478 101%
8 Pies 24 478 498 96%
9 Melb 20 490 494 99%
10 Port 20 462 493 94%
11 FCFC 18 479 526 91%
12 Adel 16 467 499 94%
13 Cats 14 473 514 92%
14 Tiggers 12 439 502 87%
15 Bears 8 465 580 80%
16 Suns 4 410 594 69%
17 EFC 2 393 563 70%
18 Dogs 2 373 578 65%

Model is basic as:

  • you score the average of your points for and the average of the opponent’s points against
  • +1 and -1 for H&A (I know that sounds like nothing, but it was close to the average in past years)
  • game order is therefore significant, especially if you get a clump of easier or harder games earlier
  • draw difficulty matters: e.g. see the positions of WCE and Adelaide
108

I did a remodel of my season predictions, and now have us sliding from my original prediction of 14th to now 15th.

I have us beating the Dogs, Tigers and Blues, but now losing to the Eagles (I initially had us winning).

109

16th for mine (7 wins needed to make finals, and then a two game gap to 9th).

Obviously my actual tips have Adelaide finishing much higher and WCE much lower than in the extremely-clever model above.

110

White gets three weeks suspension for picking on Maddy Collier… good.

And it seems the first goal of the season did indeed come from an off-the-ball punch: Molloy gets… a $250 fine. It was so “low impact” the player was still down thirty seconds later.

Three Hawks also only fined for various snipes… but it was against Fark Carlton, so meh.

111

Bulldogs dominating general play so far in the second quarter but nothing to show for it.

PA 13
WB 2

1 Like
112

Dogs just need to survive for another quarter then come home on the crowd’s voice.

Mind you, if I was a Hawk fan I’d be contrary and barrack for Port.

113

2-19, finally.

114

She’s zippy (without being fishy).

115

I can’t see PA going full GWS on WB, but they should have a pretty comfy win here.

116

2-25 at halftime.

Ahrens sure knows how to pick a team that will keep her busy down back.

117

Gemma Houghton makes it 4-37; classy collect, swing around, and banana.

118

If Footscray don’t goal, they’ve set new records for their lowest score in these opening two games…

5-46 with 6 minutes left in the game.

119

A pity free kick sets up a Dog mark twenty out…

120

MISSES!

0.6.6 trails 7.4.46 with 4,.5 minutes left.