They weren’t 4 good first round picks. None would have been in the top 10. Total of the 4 picks were equivalent to pick 3. That’s it. Crappy offer that we quite rightly said no to.
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Whys it matter if pushes out to 10 thr picks matching bid are being used on a pjck wed have never got
That argument is just terrible.
It’s still 4 swings at players of whom I think in this years draft at least there will be plenty of decent players that come from that pick 15-30 region.
I’m definitely keen to revisit this in a few years and see how many of these blokes are busts or not
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You wouldn’t have traded Merrett for pick 3 straight up?
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It’s hard to know isn’t it?
From what I’m reading, Duursma is the standout pick in the top 10 of this draft with the others looking like ‘nice’ players at this early stage? I’m not reading enormous confidence about the crop after Duursma being regarded as bona fide ‘A’ graders like last year?
Let’s wait and see. Reading the tea leaves at this stage I’m not hearing the players around 3-5 are highly likely star quality yet. Of course we won’t know like any year until Fien the track but the commentary doesn’t seem to be overflowing with enthusiasm about this top group.
And with any year there’s always quality, not always many of them in the top 3-10 however….
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Here’s pick 15, 20 and 25 in the draft in recent years. Notable players in bold
Others can decide whether they’d trade Merrett for these players.
2013: Zak Jones, Leslie, McStay
2014: Garlett, Laverde, Nielsen
2015: Rioli, Fiorini, Dunkley
2016: Galluci, Cumming, Long
2017: Bailey, Coleman-Jones, Balta
2018: Clark, Collier-Dawkins, Rowbottom
2019: Weightman, Philp, Mead
2020: Stone, Holmes, Cook
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There’s three or four I wouldn’t touch but I’d definitely swap him for the other 20.
True, and anyone who thinks our results are getting much better next year is delusional, the fact that Welsh thinks we can make the 8 is scary.
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2020 was widely panned as a poor draft but Geelong still managed to grab Holmes and Neale in the one draft in the 20-30’s so it comes down to talent identification and some luck but I get annoyed when I hear people say how weak this draft is and how there is no depth. I’m almost certain that like every draft there will be some quality players around that range. Again I haven’t followed the other states too much but there is several SA lads that will go in the 15-30 that will turn out good
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It’s important to consider age as well as quality, when you’re a ■■■■ team. If we’re thinking, for example, that we’re going to be a good team when Caddy’s a prime age key forward that’s probably 2031 or thereabouts.
If that’s our window, then the rough equivalent by age, durability, and timeline would be would you trade 2022 Eddie Betts for 2022 Cumming and Long. He was better than both of them for basically his entire career, but they were still playing in 2022 and he wasn’t.
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Others are saying that late teen picks / picks in the 20 are no good. So to compare with above, here is picks 8 and 9 in those same drafts.
2013: McDonald, Salem
2014: Wright, Moore
2015: Ah Chee, Weideman
2016: Logue, Brodie
2017: Coffield, Naughton
2018: Thomas, Jones
2019: Serong, Henry
2020: Cox, Perkins
My takeaway is people overrate “top 10 picks” compared with top 30 picks. The data shows you should put a premium on top 5 picks. You have a 50% chance of getting an AA player with one of them. Then it evens out of a bit and picks 6 to 30 have a similar AA chance (around 20%). Then it drops to around a 6% chance after picks 30
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Yep.
It’s interesting that many of the people that say the Hawthorn deal wasn’t enough (a) think we’re bottom 6 next year and (b) think Merrett will likely be gone next year anyway
It’s spot on, which is why having more selections in bulk, evaluating early and moving on the busts early (I.e Tsatas) that have value until you have a volume is ideal.
It’s why Merrett going this year was critical.
I get why we didn’t take the offer, I like our counter, I’m surprised Hawks didn’t take it. As they need fewer selections with more guarantee of instant impact, top 5 or free agents.
Had they taken the deal they could have focussed on FA and state league, DFA and not worried about the draft for 3 years. Had a crack, then shopped the older brigade and get another round of talent post 2027.
Instead they will tread water for 12 months.
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Our counter offer was seemingly 4 “firsts” plus a future second with nothing back. That is not going to be accepted by anyone.
We also seemingly only made that counter offer when there was less than an hour to go. Hence Petero’s text to Damo in frustration.
It comes across as we never wanted to trade him and put out a token trade late knowing they wouldn’t accept it. We met with Merrett on Monday to tell him we were trading him too
If we wanted to get a deal done (which it doesn’t sound like we did), we could have put it out earlier and then get Hawks to counter. For example, Hawks reply - ok, we’ll give you the 2027 first but you have to give us your 2027 second, just like Blues did to Swans
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How badly did Hawks want to deal if their first offer was Tuesday, they didn’t try to find a player or top 10 pick, actually lowered the value of their best pick and didn’t try to negotiate our demand?
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Because it was so toxic at Carlton when they didnt trade Gibbs? And Carlton and Geelong definitely got a worse offer the following year after refusing to trade Gibbs and Kelly respectively.
Like seriously, what is so wrong in your life that you have to send all your negativity on this board? Granted most of us are pessimistic/disheartened but I feel like I’m the Lid Off ambassador compared to you.
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Except Merrett, unless you think he is nothing.
It almost seems like every time you post on this your default position is that we did wrong, never the Dawks.
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They wanted to deal, but they thought all the heavy lifting was done when merrett announced he wanted to leave and used Morris as a mouthpiece.
They thought he would embarrass and shame us into trading him.
They weren’t expecting us to hold firm
Next year when they or someone else comes for him, at least they know we will hold him to his contract so don’t try and call our bluff. Get in early and get it sorted.
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Few in that bracket @IceTemple
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happy for merrett to go to anyone else next year. hawks can get stuffed