Dont judge me.
19 Likes
Will be touch and go for Tuesday midnight but hopefully weāre back to where we were a couple weeks ago by mid august. With some changes to large outdoor crowds.
1 Like
How do they even get there?
It is all looking good for now. Iāll be happier when I see a Reff below 1.
1 Like
During our June outbreak, it was found that Federally funded Aged Care residents were vaccinated, but they left the workers to āfend for themselvesā. This meant there were many gaps in the system for covid to cause some trouble.
Vic Gov then prioritised walk-up vaccinations for a few weeks.
Then it was discussed in National cabinet that it would become mandatory for HCW to be vaccinated with a date by September to have them vaccinated. Itās work contracts so very difficult to make mandatory.
The NSW outbreak has taken some heat off this. There hasnāt been a report on the number of HCW vaccinated by the Feds since our outbreak showed the results of their flawed thinking. So as per usually, State Gov has to step in and clean up the Fed mess.
I have no problems prioritising certain weeks towards HCW as thatāll reduce the deaths should an outbreak occur.
Iād be target prioritising the first doses. Do a three day blitz towards the old stage 1A eligible, then another three day blitz working down towards the 50s and 40s. Then repeat the pattern.
I agree that prioritising teachers would be a good idea, but I also agree that it needs to form part of a national policy around the rollout. Not just a state policy.
Otherwise, just open up to all between 25s and 40s. That should give all āessentialā workers the opportunity to be vaccinated.
The problem of course is supply. Which still needs another month before getting to the levels where the mass vaccination hubs can be expanded.
3 Likes
Yep.
Iād wager youād have a better chance in a claim against a medical centreās insurance company than you would against the Feds.
2 Likes
I agree with this somewhat but what is the end game.
Like Victoria last year NSW will be lepers to the rest of the country until itās close to or at zero.
First Wim, and now you. Itās almost like you donāt like great wines, great Greek feasts, and excellent jams. Speaking of Adelaide food. Last time I was there, I bought a cherry pie for my Dad at the central market. Delicious.
Stop picking on Adelaide.
EDIT: I forgot Pandas. How cool are pandas?
3 Likes
EFA.
The aim isnāt to get to 0.
Itās to minimise the damage and hope they get priority access to vaccines, so they open up freely earlier than any other state.
136 new cases in NSWuhan.
IIRC Hunt claimed that all nursing home staff and residents would be vaccinated on a certain date. It was never done and the media never followed up on it.
The goal was to have them all vaccinated by September / October for memory.
Thatās around when there is way more Pfz vax coming.
So you really think that was the actual plan?
Mrs Wim is from Adelaide.
2 Likes
I just think the flack is primarily politically motivated, because i can demonstrate the stark difference using year nine maths.
I am talking about a tweet from Hunt that declared they would all be done by 6pm or something on a certain day some time ago, which never happened.
1 Like
I think the infectiousness of Delta makes it next to impossible to compare the two. But surely, if it took us Vics a really harsh lockdown which includes curfew, 5km radius, and no in-store shopping to contain, then that should have been the starting point for Sydney to do the same with a more infectious strain. Why would they do any less than that, unless Gladys had the gall to believe that something about her people made them ābetterā? Realistically, I think sheās simply afraid to lock down businesses, as they provide funding and votes for her party.
Imagine deciding youād rather people die so you can stay in office. I have nothing but contempt for her selfish decisions.
11 Likes
Was?
No.
Original plan was to get to 0 cases.
Then it shifted to 0 cases infectious in the community.
They are now redirecting and going for vaccination rates. Probably because they have looked ahead and think at the rate they go, theyāll be able to vaccinate enough of the adult population in the time it would take to actually lockdown hard and get back to normal.
Late last night, there was a news report (yeah, I know) that NSW are thinking that a harder lockdown (like Victoria) wonāt do enough to reduce infections.
I donāt agree with it, but their strategy will change and develop along the way.
NSW isnāt as bad as it got during Vicās main outbreak, however they (VIC) got it down to 0, NSW seem to be showing a lot less effort to do so and that is what is concerning. Their eggs are clearly in the basket of trying to vaccinate themselves out of this, at the expense of the rest of the country.
article on modelling covid in the USA from the covid19 forecasting hub - a consortium of whiz bang scientists https://covid19forecasthub.org
bottom line is they are predicting peaking in mid-October, with daily deaths more than triple what they are now
The Delta Variant Will Drive A Steep Rise In U.S. COVID Deaths, A New Model Shows
Selena Simmons-DuffinJuly 22, 20216:24 PM ET
Front-line workers at a medical center in Aurora, Colo., gather for a COVID-19 memorial on July 15 to commemorate the lives lost in the coronavirus pandemic. New estimates say many thousands more will die in the U.S. this summer and fall.
Hyoung Chang/MediaNews Group/Denver Post via Getty Images
The current COVID-19 surge in the U.S. ā fueled by the highly contagious delta variant ā will steadily accelerate through the summer and fall, peaking in mid-October, with daily deaths more than triple what they are now.
Thatās according to new projections released Wednesday from the COVID-19 Scenario Modeling Hub, a consortium of researchers working in consultation with the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention to help the agency track the course of the pandemic.
Itās a deflating prospect for parents looking ahead to the coming school year, employers planning to get people back to the workplace and everyone hoping that the days of big national surges were over.
āWhatās going on in the country with the virus is matching our most pessimistic scenarios,ā says Justin Lessler, an epidemiologist at the University of North Carolina who helps run the modeling hub. "We might be seeing synergistic effects of people becoming less cautious in addition to the impacts of the delta variant.
āI think itās a big call for caution,ā he adds.
The groupās latest projections combine 10 mathematical models from various academic teams to create an āensembleā projection. It offers four scenarios for its projections ā varying based on what percent of the population gets vaccinated and how quickly the delta variant spreads.
Article continues after sponsor message
In the most likely scenario, Lessler says, the U.S. reaches only 70% vaccination among eligible Americans, and the delta variant is 60% more transmissible.
In that scenario, at the peak in mid-October, there would be around 60,000 cases and around 850 deaths each day, Lessler says.
Each scenario also includes a range of how bad things could get ā the very worst end of the range for the most likely scenario shows about 240,000 people getting infected and 4,000 people dying each day at the October peak, which would be almost as bad as last winter.
Lessler notes that thereās a lot of uncertainty in these projections and that how things actually plays out depends on lots of factors, including whether the vaccination campaign picks up steam and whether other mitigation measures are put back into place.
āChanges in behavior that we didnāt predict and big shifts in vaccination could very much change these results,ā Lessler says.
But overall, the main projection shows a steady slope upwards to the peak in October, and then a steady slope back down.
āBy the time you get to October, these resurgent epidemics have burned through a lot of the people who are susceptible,ā Lessler explains.
At that point, āherd immunity starts kicking in a little more aggressively and we start to see things going down again.ā By January 2022, the model shows deaths coming back down to around the current level of about 300 per day.
The take-home message of this latest model is that the pandemic isnāt over yet and āweāre not going to be able to land the plane without turbulence,ā says William Hanage, an epidemiologist at the Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health. āHow much turbulence will track with how many people are vaccinated in a given community.ā
āI also strongly suspect that delta is highly prone to superspreading ā if I am right, it might go off like a bomb in some undervaccinated communities,ā Hanage adds.
Public policy and behavior could still move the dial toward milder outcomes, Lessler says.
āI think states should maybe be rethinking the speed at which theyāre removing mask mandates or social distancing,ā Lessler says. āThat is something that ā if you want to keep cases under control ā certainly would have an impact.ā
Those measures would have to come from state or local leaders. Despite calls for the CDC to issue new mask guidelines, at a briefing Thursday, CDC Director Rochelle Walensky once again held firm.
She emphasized that the guidelines have always said that unvaccinated people should wear masks indoors. She added that even vaccinated people could wear masks indoors, too, if they want extra protection, especially in places where the virus is surging and there are a lot of unvaccinated people. But her main message was the same: Get vaccinated.
With that, Lessler agrees. āIf we got enough people vaccinated, we could even stop the delta variant in its tracks,ā he says.
1 Like